[EL] ELB News and Commentary 11/4/14
Rick Hasen
rhasen at law.uci.edu
Tue Nov 4 09:00:03 PST 2014
What to Expect When You're Electing: Here's What I'll Be Watching
for Tuesday <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67836>
Posted onNovember 4, 2014 8:58 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67836>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
[Updated and bumped to the top.]
I will be blogging andtweeting <https://twitter.com/rickhasen>all day
about election developments, but expect things to heat up as polls close.
Unless there is some natural or human-made disaster or a massive
electronic voting problem somewhere, election day itself likely will be
relatively quiet. No doubt we will hear reports about votes being
'flipped" by electronic voting machines because of calibration error,
random stories of long lines (though I expect this to be far less of a
problem than on presidential election days, where turnout is much
higher). If there are long lines, expect there to be calls to keep polls
open, and potentially even a lawsuit filed here or there (and no doubt
opposed) to extend polling times.
The real action will come in the evening as the polls close. There will
be delays in some places with reporting of votes, which will lead some
people to suspect some kind of chicanery (especially if the late
reporting areas are from one's opposing party). Only later in the
evening (or the following morning) will it become clear enough if an
election is within themargin of litigation
<http://ssrn.com/abstract=698201>.
To be close enough to go to a recount or litigation, generally we are
talking votes within the hundreds or less (or perhaps a few thousand in
a larger jurisdiction). That could happen anywhere. I fear it most
happening in the Florida governor's race---not only because of Florida's
politicized electoral system. Thanks to changes after 2000, the
Secretary of State is a political appointee of the governor. A recipe
for disaster.
Next I fear a contested gubernatorial election in Wisconsin. The state
administers elections much better than Florida does, but there is still
considerable variation and in some places administration is weaker than
others (I openedThe Voting Wars
<http://www.amazon.com/gp/search?index=books&linkCode=qs&keywords=9780300182033>with
Kathy Nicholas and those suddenly found votes in Waukesha County.)
Things will also get heated if control of the Senate is in play---if
Alaska is late with the counting, if La. and/or Ga. go to a runoff.
In that case, expect members of the fraudulent fraud squad to point to
voter fraud as behind any Democratic victory, especially in Colorado.
Expect Democrats to complain of voter suppression in Texas and beyond.
All we are left to do at this point is to utter theElection
Administrator's prayer
<http://politicaldictionary.com/words/election-administrators-prayer/>.
(title of post courtesy ofStephen Colbert
<http://thecolbertreport.cc.com/videos/qtoavw/what-to-expect-when-you-re-electing>.)
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Posted inelection administration
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,The Voting Wars
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>
Shorter David Firestone: Republicans, Stop Freaking Out About the
Vote Counting in Colorado <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67941>
Posted onNovember 4, 2014 8:55 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67941>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Here
<http://takingnote.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/11/04/early-voting-its-not-just-for-democrats/?smid=tw-share>.
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Posted inelection administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>
"Judge dismisses GOP suit challenging Boulder County Clerk"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67939>
Posted onNovember 4, 2014 8:54 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67939>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Fox31 Denver
<http://kdvr.com/2014/11/03/republicans-sue-boulder-county-clerk-over-election-challenges/comment-page-1/>:
" Boulder County judge quickly dismissed a legal challenge by Colorado
Republicans, who filed a lawsuit Monday against Clerk Hillary Hall for
allegedly violating the law by not allowing GOP election watchers enough
time to challenge voter signatures as state law allows them to do."
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Posted inelection administration
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,The Voting Wars
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>
"Election Tests New Rules on Voting"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67937>
Posted onNovember 4, 2014 8:50 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67937>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
NYT analysis
<http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/05/us/election-tests-new-rules-on-voting.html?_r=0&referrer=>by
Eric Eckholm:
Numerous reports of voters facing obstacles have emerged from early
voting in Texas and Georgia, among other states. But quantifying the
impact of the altered rules is challenging, especially in a midterm
election expected to have low turnout. In states like North
Carolina, liberal groups hope that public anger over curbed voting
opportunities will provoke a backlash that motivates Democratic
voters, offsetting possible losses.
The battles over election rules have partisan roots, said Richard L.
Hasen, a law professor at the University of California, Irvine, and
the editor of Election Law Blog <http://electionlawblog.org/>.
"One lesson learned from Florida in 2000," he said, referring to the
counting fiasco in the contest between George W. Bush and Al Gore,
"is that in close elections, the rules matter a great deal."
Both parties, Mr. Hasen said, assume that restrictions like photo ID
requirements and the elimination of same-day registration most often
deter less-engaged voters who are more likely to vote Democratic.
"So unsurprisingly, Democrat-led legislatures have passed rules
making it easier to register and vote, and Republicans have done the
opposite," he said.
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Posted inUncategorized <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
Follow Doug Chapin's Election Administration Live Blog
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67935>
Posted onNovember 4, 2014 8:39 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67935>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
For
updates<http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/electionacademy/2014/11/election_day_2014_liveblog.php?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+HHHElections+%28The+Election+Aacdemy%29>throughout
the day. No one has their pulse on what is happening with election
administration in real time throughout the country better than Doug.
He's alsoon Twitter <https://twitter.com/HHHElections>, if you can
stomach the corny jokes.
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Posted inelection administration
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,The Voting Wars
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>
"Florida House District 64 race gets even more complicated"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67933>
Posted onNovember 4, 2014 8:37 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67933>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Big mess
<http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2014/11/florida-house-district-64-race-gets-even-more-complicated.html>!
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Posted incampaigns <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>
"Counting votes in South Florida is labor intensive"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67931>
Posted onNovember 4, 2014 8:35 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67931>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Don't
forget<http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article3543563.html>how
hard election day actually is for the election administrators. Very
labor intensive, thankless job where any screw-up can gain you national
notoriety.
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Posted inelection administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>
"Rethinking Transparency in U.S. Elections"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67929>
Posted onNovember 4, 2014 8:33 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67929>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Rebecca Green has postedthis draft
<http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2518702>on SSRN
(forthcoming, /Ohio State LJ/). Here is the abstract:
/Bush v. Gore/ catapulted this country into a crisis of confidence
in the management of our elections. Despite reforms since 2000,
public confidence in election administration continues to wane. Are
dead people on the rolls? Are non-citizens voting? Are provisional
ballots wrongly rejected? State election transparency statutes meant
to reassure the public that elections are producing legitimate
results are often conflicting, vague, and even nonexistent.
Exacerbating the problem, the last two decades have witnessed huge
changes that offset the transparency balance. Dramatic changes in
how Americans vote, how elections are administered, and who
scrutinizes the election process call for a recalibration of
election transparency norms. It is not immediately clear, as some
are beginning to sense, that unqualified openness serves the
fundamental goals of election transparency, that reactive access
policies boost public confidence, or that current state transparency
architectures tap the full potential technology offers.
Circumstances demand not just statutory revision, but revisiting
traditional assumptions about election transparency to accommodate
radically changed circumstances. This paper contains a proposal
pairing an increase in public access to election materials with
penalties for harmful uses of election data. We have an opportunity
to craft a modern transparency regime trained on the core goal of
ensuring public confidence in election outcomes. Developing state
transparency regimes that address --- and take advantage of ---
modern realities is critical in an era when election controversy is
the new normal.
Recommended!
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Posted inUncategorized <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
Ned Foley Holds Himself Back, Refuses to Commit Impersonation Fraud
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67927>
Posted onNovember 4, 2014 8:30 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67927>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Where's Mr. O'Keefe when you need him?Ned's story
<http://moritzlaw.osu.edu/election-law/article/?article=13017>is
typical. I saw a bunch of screw-ups at my LA polling place today too.
And everyone showing remarkable self control. Not only in not committing
voter fraud, but in not robbing and looting the school where voting took
place. I mean, there were rocks and glass windows. There was the
potential for larceny and worse!
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Posted inelection administration
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,The Voting Wars
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>
"Virginia DOE: No big voter roll purge this year"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67925>
Posted onNovember 4, 2014 8:28 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67925>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Daily Press
<http://www.dailypress.com/news/politics/shad-plank-blog/dp-virginia-doe-no-big-voter-roll-purge-this-year-20141030-post.html>:
There's a paragraph in this Al Jazeera America look at voter
registration roll purges
<http://projects.aljazeera.com/2014/double-voters/index.html> around
the country that really got my attention Wednesday night.
/"Based on the Crosscheck lists, officials have begun the process of
removing names from the rolls --- beginning with 41,637 in Virginia
alone. Yet the criteria used for matching these double voters are
disturbingly inadequate."/
Whoa. Did I mention the article is titled, "Jim Crow Returns?"
Left unsaid, though, is that this happened last year. There was an
unsuccessful lawsuit about it.
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/federal-judge-rejects-democratic-challenge-to-virginia-voter-roll-purge/2013/10/18/26235068-3809-11e3-8a0e-4e2cf80831fc_story.html> Since
then the Virginia Department of Elections, under new Gov. Terry
McAuliffe, has changed the way it uses the Crosscheck database,
according to new elections commissioner Edgardo Cortes.
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Posted inelection administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>
"Ex-Lawmakers Predict Post-Election Return of Earmarks"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67923>
Posted onNovember 4, 2014 8:25 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67923>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
BLT reports.
<http://www.nationallawjournal.com/legaltimes/home/id=1202675386930/ExLawmakers-Predict-PostElection-Return-of-Earmarks?mcode=1202615432600&curindex=1&back=NLJ>
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Posted inlegislation and legislatures <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=27>
It's an Honor Just To Be Nominated Dep't
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67921>
Posted onNovember 4, 2014 8:23 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67921>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Love this!
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Posted inUncategorized <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
"This Super PAC Was Behind 1 Out of Every 20 Senate Ads"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67919>
Posted onNovember 4, 2014 8:22 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67919>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Time/CPI reports.
<http://time.com/3553907/senate-majority-pac-campaign-finance-citizens-united/>
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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>
Love the Sleek Redesign of Political Wire!
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67917>
Posted onNovember 4, 2014 8:19 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67917>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Check it out <http://politicalwire.com/>, especially today when we all
really need it.
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Posted inUncategorized <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
"The big problem with a right-to-vote constitutional amendment"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67915>
Posted onNovember 4, 2014 8:14 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67915>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Scott Lemieux writes.
<http://theweek.com/article/index/271147/the-big-problem-with-a-right-to-vote-constitutional-amendment>(The
NYT Room for Debatecovers this too
<http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/11/03/should-voting-in-an-election-be-a-constitutional-right>---here'smy
contribution
<http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/11/03/should-voting-in-an-election-be-a-constitutional-right/to-guarantee-voting-rights-enforce-the-laws-we-have>.)
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Posted inSupreme Court <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>,The Voting
Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>,voting
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=31>
Ellen Weintraub Talks "Dark Money" with Chris Hayes
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67913>
Posted onNovember 3, 2014 7:33 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67913>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Here <http://on.msnbc.com/1EeeC21>on All In.
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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>,federal
election commission <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=24>
Thought on Election Eve <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67910>
Posted onNovember 3, 2014 5:08 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67910>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Here's a scary thought: a recount in theOrman-Roberts
<http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/election/article3545726.html#/tabPane=tabs-cd02770d-1>#KSSEN
<https://twitter.com/hashtag/KSSEN?src=hash>race with Kris Kobach
(perhaps a lame duck) in charge.
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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>,election
administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,fraudulent fraud
squad <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=8>,recounts
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=50>,The Voting Wars
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>
"Election 2014: A new level of collaboration between candidates and
big-money allies" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67908>
Posted onNovember 3, 2014 4:51 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67908>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
WaPo
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/election-2014-a-new-level-of-collaboration-between-candidates-and-big-money-allies/2014/11/03/ec2bda9a-636f-11e4-836c-83bc4f26eb67_story.html>:
The 2014 midterm elections mark a new level of collaboration between
candidates and independent groups, eroding the barrier that is
supposed to separate those running for office from their big-money
allies.
The vast sums of cash raised by independent groups has reordered the
political landscape, compelling campaigns to find new ways
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/scott-walker-case-shows-growing-closeness-between-politicians-and-wealthy-allies/2014/06/23/e8b9304e-f955-11e3-a606-946fd632f9f1_story.html> to
communicate their wants and needs without officially coordinating
with outside players. Such direct coordination is prohibited under
40-year-old campaign finance rules.
This is not how the system used to work. Just a decade ago,
candidates shied away from being too closely associated with "soft
money," for reasons of appearance and for fear of running afoul of
election laws.
But the rapid spread of super PACs and politically active nonprofit
groups that followed the Supreme Court's /Citizens United/ decision
has dramatically altered the climate. Political operatives are also
taking advantage of the hands-off approach of a divided Federal
Election Commission, which has not reexamined coordination rules in
the wake of the 2010 ruling.
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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>
"GOP puts millions toward independent spending in legislative races"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67906>
Posted onNovember 3, 2014 3:59 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=67906>byRick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
LAT
<http://www.latimes.com/local/political/la-me-pc-gop-legislative-spending-20141103-story.html?track=rss&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&dlvrit=1153586>:
"The Californian Republican Party has spent millions this election on
independent spending campaigns in pivotal legislative races, a tactic
that enabled the GOP to expand its influence this election. But
Democrats are crying foul, arguing the reliance on independent
expenditures lets Republicans subvert state campaign finance law."
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Posted incampaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>
--
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-8000
949.824.3072 - office
949.824.0495 - fax
rhasen at law.uci.edu
http://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/
http://electionlawblog.org
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