[EL] does anyone know if anyone has already compiled national vote total for each major party for US House?

[Rob Richie]

Lots of votes to be counted, so FairVote is waiting before  doing specific
vote total number crunching.

That said, we  think it will be a two party vote of about 52% to 48%, We
have a reliable way of gauging voter preference based on determining the
deviation from a district's partisan voting index. In open seats,
Republicans  this year on average ran 2.0% ahead of district partisanship
in House races in the two-party vote. Reflecting  the "incumbency bump,
Republican incumbents ran about 4.6% ahead of partisanship and Democrats
0.5%. Put that all together, and it's a 52.0% year for Republicans in a way
that the popular vote will likely reflect.

We just wrote up the "incumbency bump
<http://www.fairvoteblog.com/2014/11/incumbents-advantage-in-us-house.html>"
analysis here -- with one key point being that this is by far  the lowest
overall  incumbency bump since we started measuring  it, showing that
voters are every more rigidly voting the party line in congressional races
even if the might  like their incumbents.

What's interesting about this number is that it is nearly exactly the
advantage that Democrats had in 2012 using the same  methodolog
<http://www.fairvote.org/research-and-analysis/blog/incumbency-bumps-measuring-national-partisan-swings-by-evaluating-the-incumbent-advantage-in-u-s-house-races-1996-201/>y.
And showing the greater responsiveness of our Senate elections, they had a
good year. But in mirror years partisan preference, Republicans in both
elections won big majorities of House races. There's a  story behind that
<http://www.fairvote.org/assets/PartisanBias2014.pdf> is more complicated
than often understood.
Rob

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On Thu, Nov 6, 2014 at 2:08 PM, Richard Winger <richardwinger at yahoo.com>
wrote:

> Is anyone aware of any source that already compiled the number of votes
> cast for all Republicans running for US House, and the number of votes cast
> for all Democrats running for US House?  It would be interesting to see if
> the Democratic national popular vote total exceeds the Republican national
> popular vote total, as it did by 1,600,000 in November 2012.
>
> Richard Winger
> 415-922-9779
> PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
>
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> Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
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