[EL] does anyone know if anyone has already compiled national vote total for each major party for US House?

[Douglas Johnson]

Just to reinforce Rob’s point about how many votes are left to count, estimates from the few counties in California making announcements so far are that 20-30 percent of votes cast in California were not counted on election day and will be counted over the next week or two. That’s over a million votes!

 

-          Doug

 

Douglas Johnson, Fellow

Rose Institute of State and Local Government

at Claremont McKenna College 

douglas.johnson at cmc.edu

310-200-2058 

 

 

 

From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Rob Richie
Sent: Thursday, November 6, 2014 11:32 AM
To: Richard Winger
Cc: law-election at uci.edu
Subject: Re: [EL] does anyone know if anyone has already compiled national vote total for each major party for US House?

 

Lots of votes to be counted, so FairVote is waiting before  doing specific vote total number crunching.

 

That said, we  think it will be a two party vote of about 52% to 48%, We have a reliable way of gauging voter preference based on determining the deviation from a district's partisan voting index. In open seats, Republicans  this year on average ran 2.0% ahead of district partisanship in House races in the two-party vote. Reflecting  the "incumbency bump, Republican incumbents ran about 4.6% ahead of partisanship and Democrats 0.5%. Put that all together, and it's a 52.0% year for Republicans in a way that the popular vote will likely reflect.

 

We just wrote up the  <http://www.fairvoteblog.com/2014/11/incumbents-advantage-in-us-house.html> "incumbency bump" analysis here -- with one key point being that this is by far  the lowest overall  incumbency bump since we started measuring  it, showing that voters are every more rigidly voting the party line in congressional races even if the might  like their incumbents.

 

What's interesting about this number is that it is nearly exactly the advantage that Democrats had in 2012 using the same  <http://www.fairvote.org/research-and-analysis/blog/incumbency-bumps-measuring-national-partisan-swings-by-evaluating-the-incumbent-advantage-in-u-s-house-races-1996-201/>  methodology. And showing the greater responsiveness of our Senate elections, they had a good year. But in mirror years partisan preference, Republicans in both elections won big majorities of House races. There's a  <http://www.fairvote.org/assets/PartisanBias2014.pdf>  story behind that is more complicated than often understood.

Rob




~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Rob Richie
Executive Director, FairVote   
6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 610
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rr at fairvote.org  (301) 270-4616  http://www.fairvote.org

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On Thu, Nov 6, 2014 at 2:08 PM, Richard Winger <richardwinger at yahoo.com> wrote:

Is anyone aware of any source that already compiled the number of votes cast for all Republicans running for US House, and the number of votes cast for all Democrats running for US House?  It would be interesting to see if the Democratic national popular vote total exceeds the Republican national popular vote total, as it did by 1,600,000 in November 2012.

 

Richard Winger
415-922-9779
PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147


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