[EL] Kennedy's question

[Rob Richie]

Doug raises a good point about the relatively power of high-turnout voters
over low-turnout voters in this scenario.

But I assume this is the case in all elections. As one little example, we
did an exit survey for a special election
<http://www.fairvote.org/research-and-analysis/blog/revealing-evidence-of-who-votes-and-who-doesn-t-in-local-elections/>
in our hometown of Takoma Park a couple years ago in a 25%-white,,
relatively low income ward. Overall turnout was only about 15% registered
voter, and more than 65% of voters were white, half earned had incomes of
at least $100,000 and, remarkably, more than half had graduate degrees. Our
analysis of the relative demographics of turnout in Ferguson (MO) in city
elections
<http://www.fairvote.org/research-and-analysis/blog/beyond-ferguson-unrepresentative-democracy-in-city-elections/>
in April 2013 compared to presidential elections in November 2012 was also
quite revealing

So when we look at the elections that really count for determining
representation in in legislatures in our current system -- primary
elections and off-year local elections -- I assume the relatively greater
power of high-turnout disproportionately white , higher-income voters is
the norm. Joey Fishkin's blog yesterday
<http://balkin.blogspot.com/2015/12/be-careful-what-you-wish-for-in-evenwel.html>
in fact highlights how this has been flagged as a tool of gerrymandering
when he writes about the LULAC case. I was curious if anyone has done
systematic analysis of this kind of gerrymandering, whether done with
racial intent or just political intent.

Thanks,
Rob Richie

http://balkin.blogspot.com/2015/12/be-careful-what-you-wish-for-in-evenwel.html




On Wed, Dec 9, 2015 at 12:27 AM, Douglas Johnson <djohnson at ndcresearch.com>
wrote:

> It's certainly demographically possible, but it would be a huge mess:
> low-turnout areas would have to be put together with high-turnout areas in
> every district, meaning the high-turnout areas would likely win every
> district.
>
> Sent from my iPhone
>
> On Dec 8, 2015, at 3:22 PM, Edelman, Paul <paul.edelman at Law.Vanderbilt.Edu>
> wrote:
>
>
>
> Notwithstanding Scott Keller’s response to Justice Kennedy, there has been
> something written on the possibility of drawing districts so as to equalize
> both total population and voting age population.  The latest version
> appears here:
>
>
>
> http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2631666
>
>
>
> The paper itself will appear in the Journal of Legal Studies next year.
>
>
>
>
>
> Paul H. Edelman
>
> Professor of Mathematics and Law
>
> Vanderbilt University
>
> 615-322-0990
>
>
>
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