[EL] Curious if a single person on this list would back up President-Elect Trump on 2 assertions today
Richman, Jesse T.
JRichman at odu.edu
Thu Dec 1 09:25:49 PST 2016
Thanks for the question Lorraine.
I want to emphasize and clarify some points that seem to be generating confusion as echo chambers pick this up and re-post it.
This post is not intended to make a specific claim on my part concerning how many non-citizens voted in 2016. It has a much narrower aim. My goal was to show that in my view an extrapolation from my coauthored work on the 2008 election to the 2016 election did not support the arguments some seemed to be making that the entire popular vote margin for Clinton was due to illegal votes by non-citizens. In this post I do my own calculation of that extrapolation for the purpose of demonstrating that this extrapolation would not support that claim.
There are a number of reasons why one should be cautious about extrapolating from the 2008 CCES data to 2016.
* Many things can and have changed over the course of eight years. For example, a number of states have made efforts to use matching of records to remove non-citizen registrants from voter rolls. For example, here are some analyses related to Virginia<https://fs.wp.odu.edu/jrichman/2016/11/05/non-citizen-terminated-registration-rates-in-virginia-counties/> and North Carolina<https://fs.wp.odu.edu/jrichman/2016/10/20/daca-registration-rate-estimate/> concerning such matching efforts. These non-citizens are no longer on voter rolls. There are other states that have been even more aggressive about the issue of attempting to verify that registered voters are citizens. Furthermore, although the evidence from our 2014 paper suggests that it is only partially effective at preventing non-citizens from voting, many states have moved to adopt tighter voter identification requirements.
* The 2008 estimate is inherently uncertain. It depends upon a number of assumptions including assumptions about the validity of the survey data. Our critics<http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379415001420> have made a variety of arguments and I encourage readers to evaluate those arguments along with our responses<https://fs.wp.odu.edu/jrichman/wp-content/uploads/sites/760/2015/11/AnsolabehereResponse10-19-2016.pdf> to them.
Best Regards,
Jesse Richman
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Lorraine Minnite
Sent: Thursday, December 01, 2016 12:27 AM
To: law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
Subject: Re: [EL] Curious if a single person on this list would back up President-Elect Trump on 2 assertions today
Just to be clear: Are you suggesting that it is plausible that 834,318 non-citizens voted for Hillary Clinton?
Lori Minnite
On 11/28/16 3:50 PM, Richman, Jesse T. wrote:
Since some in Trump’s team seem to be attempting to use my coauthored 2014 study on non-citizen voting to support their claims, I think it’s worth walking through the extrapolation from those results to show how they do not support the argument that Trump would have won the popular vote were it not for illegal votes.
Donald Trump recently suggested that his deficit in the popular vote to Clinton might be due entirely to illegal votes cast, for instance by non-citizens. Is this claim plausible? The claim Trump is making is not supported by our data.
Here I run some extrapolations based upon the estimates for other elections from my coauthored 2014 paper on non-citizen voting. You can access that paper on the journal website here<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencedirect.com%2Fscience%2Farticle%2Fpii%2FS0261379414000973&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C98b19f53e7764cbf456708d419aad6aa%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=cmIMlGfHDkoct%2BtNB21YeJUdt2STIaknQ9GlTd3Ybc8%3D&reserved=0> and Judicial Watch has also posted a PDF<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.judicialwatch.org%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F10%2FDo-Non-Citizens-Vote-in-US-Elections-Richman-et-al.pdf&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C98b19f53e7764cbf456708d419aad6aa%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=6EbGybnx%2FxVkRNGdgssQw%2BNZUaB7diEdD0wJZfX7vYo%3D&reserved=0>. The basic assumptions on which the extrapolation is based are that 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted, and that of the non-citizens who voted, 81.8 percent voted for Clinton and 17.5 percent voted for Trump. These were numbers from our study for the 2008 campaign. Obviously to the extent that critics<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencedirect.com%2Fscience%2Farticle%2Fpii%2FS0261379415001420&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C98b19f53e7764cbf456708d419aad6aa%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=%2BmWlwxPHgJZJ8Qu1pwfCAyQWIRT7uvv4gaVJMccCRwU%3D&reserved=0> of my study are correct the first number (percentage of non-citizens who voted) may be too high, and the second number (percentage who voted for Clinton) may be too low.
The count of the popular vote is still in flux as many states have yet to certify official final tallies. Here I used this unofficial tally<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdocs.google.com%2Fspreadsheets%2Fd%2F133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8%2Fhtmlview%3Fsle%3Dtrue%23gid%3D19&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C98b19f53e7764cbf456708d419aad6aa%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=v1GYbnPzGEOJlXRtDe5SPd88z5rh4IfLnrWuXDwKl0c%3D&reserved=0> linked by Real Clear Politics. As of this writing Trump is 2,235,663 votes behind Clinton in the popular vote.
If the assumptions stated above concerning non-citizen turnout are correct, could non-citizen turnout account for Clinton's popular vote margin? There is no way it could have. 6.4 percent turnout among the roughly 20.3 million non-citizen adults in the US would add only 834,318 votes to Clinton's popular vote margin. This is little more than a third of the total margin.
Is it plausible that non-citizen votes added to Clinton's margin. Yes. Is it plausible that non-citizen votes account for the entire nation-wide popular vote margin held by Clinton? Not at all.
If the percentage of non-citizens voting for Clinton is held constant, roughly 18.5 percent of non-citizens would have had to vote for their votes to have made up the entire Clinton popular vote margin. I don't think that this rate is at all plausible. Even if we assume that 90 percent voted for Clinton and only 10 percent for Trump, a more than fourteen percent turnout would be necessary to account for Clinton's popular vote margin. This is much higher than the estimates we offered. Again, it seems too high to be plausible.
Jesse Richman
Jesse Richman
Associate Professor of Political Science and International Studies
Department of Political Science and Geography
Old Dominion University
BAL 7028
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From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu<mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu> [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Jon Sherman
Sent: Monday, November 28, 2016 11:31 AM
To: Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org><mailto:rr at fairvote.org>
Cc: law-election at UCI.EDU<mailto:law-election at UCI.EDU>
Subject: Re: [EL] Curious if a single person on this list would back up President-Elect Trump on 2 assertions today
The President-elect's comments at least have the virtue of consistency. Why should massive voter fraud only be real when Democrats win and suddenly mythological when Republicans prevail? Rob, I suspect no one on this list will take up your challenge and try to be as consistent in their myth-making as the President-elect. But if they do, have them also answer: why do illegal voters uniformly align with the Democratic Party? Presidential elections split every group and subgroup of voters but illegal voters seem to only vote Democratic.
On Mon, Nov 28, 2016 at 11:11 AM, Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org<mailto:rr at fairvote.org>> wrote:
Just affirming that no takers on this challenge of defending the two assertions made yesterday by Donald Trump?
Thanks,
Rob
On Sunday, November 27, 2016, Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org<mailto:rr at fairvote.org>> wrote:
Folks,
President-elect Donald Trump has a quick thumb on Twitter, it seems. See report in New York Times,<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2016%2F11%2F27%2Fus%2Fpolitics%2Ftrump-adviser-steps-up-searing-attack-on-romney.html&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=l%2Fs4SLF27Ty5OCpzTKTcHDIcSBdRSBpGEWqfjKn1mu8%3D&reserved=0> and see three tweets in a row at the bottom of this email, which put together result in this text:
"In addition to winning the Electoral College in a landslide, I won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally. It would have been much easier for me to win the so-called popular vote than the Electoral College in that I would only campaign in 3 or 4 states instead of the 15 states that I visited. I would have won even more easily and convincingly (but smaller states are forgotten)!"
So this list has participants with a full range of political opinions. But I'm curious to know if a single person on this list would attempt to back two claims in this statement:
1. Trump in fact won the popular vote this year "if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally."
2. With a national popular vote, he would have campaigned in only 3 or 4 states instead of the whopping 15 states that he visited out of the nation's 51 (counting DC).
When making your argument, keep in mind the latest data in from Dave Wasserman as he tracks the national popular vote here:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8/edit#gid=19<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdocs.google.com%2Fspreadsheets%2Fd%2F133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8%2Fedit%23gid%3D19&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=2dE1nfM52TpLnuHkua6tOWNkKPOi%2FXn2SYBbe5f%2BCqQ%3D&reserved=0>
With votes still being counted and finalized, Clinton's lead is up to more than 2.2 million (48.2% to 46.5%). It is expected to rise to more than 2.5% and about two percentage points. So let us know where that many illegal votes were cast this year -- seems important to have that information!
Also, keep in mind the math of our nation's states when defending Trump's prospective campaign tactics with a popular vote. Mike McDonald's spreadsheet on turnout is here
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VAcF0eJ06y_8T4o2gvIL4YcyQy8pxb1zYkgXF76Uu1s/edit#gid=2030096602<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdocs.google.com%2Fspreadsheets%2Fd%2F1VAcF0eJ06y_8T4o2gvIL4YcyQy8pxb1zYkgXF76Uu1s%2Fedit%23gid%3D2030096602&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=RAiFer7Swfyweht4ANic%2BJJE4%2FRpbqSKtQhM7mtWoNg%3D&reserved=0>
Assuming comparable turnout of eligible voters across state, a candidate could win 100% of the vote in the 4 largest states (California, Texas, Florida and New York) and have only 31% of all votes in the nation. In, fact, you could win every cast in the 9 largest states and still be well under 50% of votes in the entire country - -and those states include a mix of strongly Democratic and Republican states, showing how still it is to suggest getting much more than half of the vote in those states in a nationally close election.
So suggesting that campaigning in 15 states was due to our current Electoral College rules seems, well, a stretch. You can see how often he campaigned in those states, by the sway, at our tracker
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14Lxw0vc4YBUwQ8cZouyewZvOGg6PyzS2mArWNe3iJcY/edit#gid=0<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdocs.google.com%2Fspreadsheets%2Fd%2F14Lxw0vc4YBUwQ8cZouyewZvOGg6PyzS2mArWNe3iJcY%2Fedit%23gid%3D0&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=KlyyTIZUyMfKYBTZ%2FqVBPf74HMS0qjpBvpY%2BhEtI3TA%3D&reserved=0>
Post-convention, Trump did well over half of his campaign evens in the four largest swing states - 26 campaign events in Florida, 16 in North Carolina, 13 in Ohio and 14 on Pennsylvania. Of our 13 states (counting DC) with 3 or 4 electoral votes, he campaigned in only two -- 8 events in New Hampshire, and 3 in Maine
Thanks,
Rob Richie
1. Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FrealDonaldTrump&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=Qj%2BHpt7NhpYiRIXzZYs9WQX5S10o1S%2BZQwhiZDjkRzw%3D&reserved=0> 3h3 hours ago<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FrealDonaldTrump%2Fstatus%2F802975667197386752&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=yXnKAfQ%2Bkjj2%2Fcs3dXpw5TDo0z%2BwtuzcvXYbe0DqgiQ%3D&reserved=0>
states instead of the 15 states that I visited. I would have won even more easily and convincingly (but smaller states are forgotten)!
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It would have been much easier for me to win the so-called popular vote than the Electoral College in that I would only campaign in 3 or 4--
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3. [https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1980294624/DJT_Headshot_V2_bigger.jpg] Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FrealDonaldTrump&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=Qj%2BHpt7NhpYiRIXzZYs9WQX5S10o1S%2BZQwhiZDjkRzw%3D&reserved=0> 4h4 hours ago<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FrealDonaldTrump%2Fstatus%2F802972944532209664&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=FVD1%2Fq8cHKdT58jI5lmlo12TEh0YC9xSNwtqPidX0Gg%3D&reserved=0>
In addition to winning the Electoral College in a landslide, I won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally
--
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Rob Richie
Executive Director, FairVote
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