[EL] Curious if a single person on this list would back up President-Elect Trump on 2 assertions today

Thu Dec 1 09:45:25 PST 2016

Let's go back: What!? You're saying 6.4% of non-citizens cast illegitimate
ballots?

On Monday, November 28, 2016, Richman, Jesse T. <JRichman at odu.edu> wrote:

> Since some in Trump’s team seem to be attempting to use my coauthored 2014
> study on non-citizen voting to support their claims, I think it’s worth
> walking through the extrapolation from those results to show how they do
> not support the argument that Trump would have won the popular vote were it
> not for illegal votes.
>
>
>
> Donald Trump recently suggested that his deficit in the popular vote to
> Clinton might be due entirely to illegal votes cast, for instance by
> non-citizens.  Is this claim plausible?  The claim Trump is making is not
> supported by our data.
>
>
>
> Here I run some extrapolations based upon the estimates for other
> elections from my coauthored 2014 paper on non-citizen voting.  You can
> access that paper on the journal website here
> <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379414000973> and
> Judicial Watch has also posted a PDF
> <http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Do-Non-Citizens-Vote-in-US-Elections-Richman-et-al.pdf>.
>  The basic assumptions on which the extrapolation is based are that 6.4
> percent of non-citizens voted, and that of the non-citizens who voted,
> 81.8 percent voted for Clinton and 17.5 percent voted for Trump.  These
> were numbers from our study for the 2008 campaign.  Obviously to the extent
> that critics
> <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379415001420> of
> my study are correct the first number (percentage of non-citizens who
> voted) may be too high, and the second number (percentage who voted for
> Clinton) may be too low.
>
>
>
> The count of the popular vote is still in flux as many states have yet to
> certify official final tallies.  Here I used this unofficial tally
> <https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8/htmlview?sle=true#gid=19> linked
> by Real Clear Politics.  As of this writing Trump is 2,235,663 votes behind
> Clinton in the popular vote.
>
>
>
> If the assumptions stated above concerning non-citizen turnout are
> correct, could non-citizen turnout account for Clinton's popular vote
> margin? *There is no way it could have.*  6.4 percent turnout among the
> roughly 20.3 million non-citizen adults in the US would add only
> 834,318 votes to Clinton's popular vote margin.  *This is little more
> than a third of the total margin.*
>
>
>
> Is it plausible that non-citizen votes added to Clinton's margin.  Yes.  *Is
> it plausible that non-citizen votes account for the entire nation-wide
> popular vote margin held by Clinton?  Not at all.*
>
>
>
> If the percentage of non-citizens voting for Clinton is held constant,
> roughly 18.5 percent of non-citizens would have had to vote for their votes
> to have made up the entire Clinton popular vote margin.  I don't think that
> this rate is at all plausible.   Even if we assume that 90 percent voted
> for Clinton and only 10 percent for Trump, a more than fourteen percent
> turnout would be necessary to account for Clinton's popular vote margin.
> This is much higher than the estimates we offered.  Again, it seems too
> high to be plausible.
>
>
>
> Jesse Richman
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Jesse Richman
>
> Associate Professor of Political Science and International Studies
>
> Department of Political Science and Geography
>
> Old Dominion University
>
> BAL 7028
>
> Norfolk VA 23529
>
> 757-683-3853
>
> http://fs.wp.odu.edu/jrichman/
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> *From:* law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
> <javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu');>
> [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
> <javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu');>]
> *On Behalf Of *Jon Sherman
> *Sent:* Monday, November 28, 2016 11:31 AM
> *To:* Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org
> <javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','rr at fairvote.org');>>
> *Cc:* law-election at UCI.EDU
> <javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','law-election at UCI.EDU');>
> *Subject:* Re: [EL] Curious if a single person on this list would back up
> President-Elect Trump on 2 assertions today
>
>
>
> The President-elect's comments at least have the virtue of consistency.
> Why should massive voter fraud only be real when Democrats win and suddenly
> mythological when Republicans prevail? Rob, I suspect no one on this list
> will take up your challenge and try to be as consistent in their
> myth-making as the President-elect. But if they do, have them also answer:
> why do illegal voters uniformly align with the Democratic Party?
> Presidential elections split every group and subgroup of voters but illegal
> voters seem to only vote Democratic.
>
>
>
>
>
> On Mon, Nov 28, 2016 at 11:11 AM, Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org
> <javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','rr at fairvote.org');>> wrote:
>
> Just affirming that no takers on this challenge of defending the two
> assertions made yesterday by Donald Trump?
>
>
>
> Thanks,
>
> Rob
>
> On Sunday, November 27, 2016, Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org
> <javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','rr at fairvote.org');>> wrote:
>
> Folks,
>
>
>
> President-elect Donald Trump has a quick thumb on Twitter, it seems. See report
> in New York Times,
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2016%2F11%2F27%2Fus%2Fpolitics%2Ftrump-adviser-steps-up-searing-attack-on-romney.html&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=l%2Fs4SLF27Ty5OCpzTKTcHDIcSBdRSBpGEWqfjKn1mu8%3D&reserved=0>
> and see three tweets in a row at the bottom of this email, which put
> together result in this text:
>
>
>
> "In addition to winning the Electoral College in a landslide, I won the
> popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally. It
> would have been much easier for me to win the so-called popular vote than
> the Electoral College in that I would only campaign in 3 or 4 states
> instead of the 15 states that I visited. I would have won even more easily
> and convincingly (but smaller states are forgotten)!"
>
>
>
> So this list has participants with a full range of political opinions. But
> I'm curious to know if a single person on this list would attempt to back
> two claims in this statement:
>
>
>
> 1. Trump in fact won the popular vote this year "if you deduct the
> millions of people who voted illegally."
>
> 2. With a national popular vote, he would have campaigned in only 3 or 4
> states instead of the whopping 15 states that he visited out of the
> nation's 51 (counting DC).
>
>
>
> When making your  argument, keep in mind the latest data in from Dave
> Wasserman as he tracks the national popular vote here:
>
> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68E
> Zx4SfCnP4IGQf8/edit#gid=19
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdocs.google.com%2Fspreadsheets%2Fd%2F133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8%2Fedit%23gid%3D19&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=2dE1nfM52TpLnuHkua6tOWNkKPOi%2FXn2SYBbe5f%2BCqQ%3D&reserved=0>
>
>
>
> With votes still being counted and finalized, Clinton's lead is up to more
> than 2.2 million (48.2% to 46.5%). It is expected to rise to more than
>  2.5% and about two percentage points. So let us know where that many
> illegal votes were cast this year -- seems important to have that
> information!
>
>
>
> Also, keep in mind the math of our nation's states when defending Trump's
> prospective campaign tactics with a popular vote. Mike McDonald's
> spreadsheet on turnout is  here
>
> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VAcF0eJ06y_
> 8T4o2gvIL4YcyQy8pxb1zYkgXF76Uu1s/edit#gid=2030096602
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdocs.google.com%2Fspreadsheets%2Fd%2F1VAcF0eJ06y_8T4o2gvIL4YcyQy8pxb1zYkgXF76Uu1s%2Fedit%23gid%3D2030096602&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=RAiFer7Swfyweht4ANic%2BJJE4%2FRpbqSKtQhM7mtWoNg%3D&reserved=0>
>
>
>
> Assuming comparable turnout of eligible voters across state, a candidate
> could win 100% of the vote in the 4 largest states (California, Texas,
> Florida and New York) and have only 31% of all votes in the nation.  In,
> fact, you could win every cast in the 9 largest states and still be well
> under 50% of votes in the entire country - -and those states include a mix
> of strongly Democratic and Republican states, showing how still it is to
> suggest getting much more than half of the vote in those states in a
> nationally close election.
>
>
>
> So suggesting that campaigning in 15 states was due to our current
> Electoral College rules seems, well, a stretch. You can see how often he
> campaigned in those states, by the sway, at our tracker
>
>  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14Lxw0vc4YBUwQ8cZouyewZvOGg6Py
> zS2mArWNe3iJcY/edit#gid=0
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdocs.google.com%2Fspreadsheets%2Fd%2F14Lxw0vc4YBUwQ8cZouyewZvOGg6PyzS2mArWNe3iJcY%2Fedit%23gid%3D0&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=KlyyTIZUyMfKYBTZ%2FqVBPf74HMS0qjpBvpY%2BhEtI3TA%3D&reserved=0>
>
>
>
> Post-convention, Trump did well over half of his campaign evens in the
> four largest swing states - 26 campaign events in Florida, 16 in North
> Carolina,  13 in Ohio and 14 on Pennsylvania. Of our 13 states (counting
> DC) with 3 or 4 electoral votes, he campaigned in only two -- 8 events in
> New Hampshire, and 3 in Maine
>
>
>
> Thanks,
>
> Rob Richie
>
>
>
>
>
> 1.    *Donald J. Trump* ‏@realDonaldTrump
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FrealDonaldTrump&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=Qj%2BHpt7NhpYiRIXzZYs9WQX5S10o1S%2BZQwhiZDjkRzw%3D&reserved=0>
>  3h3 hours ago
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FrealDonaldTrump%2Fstatus%2F802975667197386752&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=yXnKAfQ%2Bkjj2%2Fcs3dXpw5TDo0z%2BwtuzcvXYbe0DqgiQ%3D&reserved=0>
>
> states instead of the 15 states that I visited. I would have won even more
> easily and convincingly (but smaller states are forgotten)!
>
> *0 replies5,702 retweets23,008 likes*
>
> Reply
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> Retweet
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> *5.7K*
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> *23K*
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>
> 2.    *Donald J. Trump* ‏@realDonaldTrump
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FrealDonaldTrump&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=Qj%2BHpt7NhpYiRIXzZYs9WQX5S10o1S%2BZQwhiZDjkRzw%3D&reserved=0>
>  4h4 hours ago
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FrealDonaldTrump%2Fstatus%2F802973848022847489&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=649WGGzyNMH5oyMmcUfXZJGJY9YTWgs9JiGxtTQs8Hk%3D&reserved=0>
>
> It would have been much easier for me to win the so-called popular vote
> than the Electoral College in that I would only campaign in 3 or 4--
>
> *0 replies6,324 retweets23,768 likes*
>
> Reply
>
>
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>
>
> Retweet
>
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>
> *6.3K*
>
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> *24K*
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> 3.    *Donald J. Trump* ‏@realDonaldTrump
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FrealDonaldTrump&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=Qj%2BHpt7NhpYiRIXzZYs9WQX5S10o1S%2BZQwhiZDjkRzw%3D&reserved=0>
>  4h4 hours ago
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FrealDonaldTrump%2Fstatus%2F802972944532209664&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=FVD1%2Fq8cHKdT58jI5lmlo12TEh0YC9xSNwtqPidX0Gg%3D&reserved=0>
>
> In addition to winning the Electoral College in a landslide, I won the
> popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally
>
>
>
>
> --
>
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> Rob Richie
> Executive Director, FairVote
> 6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 240
> Takoma Park, MD 20912
> rr at fairvote.org <javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','rr at fairvote.org');>  (301)
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> --
>
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> Rob Richie
> Executive Director, FairVote
> 6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 240
> Takoma Park, MD 20912
> rr at fairvote.org <javascript:_e(%7B%7D,'cvml','rr at fairvote.org');>  (301)
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> --
>
> Jon Sherman
>
> Counsel
> Fair Elections Legal Network
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