[EL] Curious if a single person on this list would back up President-Elect Trump on 2 assertions today
Lorraine Minnite
lminnite at gmail.com
Thu Dec 1 16:40:03 PST 2016
It seems to me that Prof. Richman's waffling on the implications of his
earlier study alleging 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008 is
inconsistent with his rebuttal of the Ansolabehere et al. article that
he directs us here to read. It's also inconsistent with the bold
conclusions he drew in the 2014 /Electoral Studies/ journal article that
has gotten him so much trouble, in which he implied that voter fraud
committed by non-citizens may have delivered the state of North Carolina
to Barack Obama in 2008, and also the state of Minnesota to Al Franken,
and thus could have been responsible for a Democratic Party
filibuster-proof majority in the U.S. Senate (p. 154).
I think we understand that all Prof. Richman is trying to say here is
that even if he was right about his estimate from the 2008 election, and
we apply the estimate to the 2016 election - in other words, that 6.4
percent of adult non-citizens in the U.S. cast illegal votes for Hillary
Clinton in 2016 - this could not possibly account for the difference
between Clinton and Trump in the popular vote. And maybe 6.4 percent is
an upper bound, and since 2008, states have done more to guard against
non-citizens getting registered and voting (except that some of the
biggest states with the largest proportions of immigrants - California,
New York, Illinois - have not adopted voter ID or done anything in this
regard).
But the question remains as to whether he still thinks he was right in
the first place, and if he does, why won't he concede that his study
suggests it is possible that as many as 838,318 non-citizens cast
ballots for Clinton this election? Keep in mind that the 2014 journal
article did not limit the finding to the 2008 election the way Prof.
Richman now does below. The first sentence of that study reads: "This
analysis provides some of the first available nationwide estimates of
the portion of non-citizen immigrants /who vote in U.S. elections/"
(emphasis added). And Prof. Richman et al. were not shy about
extrapolating from percentages to real numbers in estimating how many
illegal non-citizen votes were cast in 2008. On p. 152, they state that
in 2008, "...the number of non-citizen voters...could range from just
over 38,000 at the very minimum to nearly 2.8 million at the maximum."
On p. 153, they state, "The adjusted estimate of 6.4 percent for 2008 is
quite substantial, and would be associated with 1.2 million non-citizen
votes cast in 2008 if the weighted CCES sample is fully representative
of the non-citizen population" (which, by the way, the Ansolabehere et
al. says it is not).
So, why the hesitation to weigh in on how many non-citizens voted in
2016? Very curious.
Lori Minnite
On 12/1/16 12:25 PM, Richman, Jesse T. wrote:
>
> Thanks for the question Lorraine.
>
> I want to emphasize and clarify some points that seem to be generating
> confusion as echo chambers pick this up and re-post it.
>
> This post is not intended to make a *specific claim* on my part
> concerning how many non-citizens voted in 2016. It has *a much
> narrower aim*. My goal was to show that in my view an extrapolation
> from my coauthored work on the 2008 election to the 2016 election *did
> not support the arguments some seemed to be making that the entire
> popular vote margin for Clinton was due to illegal votes by
> non-citizens.* In this post I do my own calculation of that
> extrapolation for the purpose of demonstrating that this extrapolation
> would not support that claim.
>
> There are a number of reasons why one should be cautious about
> extrapolating from the 2008 CCES data to 2016.
>
> 1. Many things can and have changed over the course of eight
> years. For example, a number of states have made efforts to
> use matching of records to remove non-citizen registrants from
> voter rolls. For example, here are some analyses related to
> Virginia
> <https://fs.wp.odu.edu/jrichman/2016/11/05/non-citizen-terminated-registration-rates-in-virginia-counties/> and
> North Carolina
> <https://fs.wp.odu.edu/jrichman/2016/10/20/daca-registration-rate-estimate/> concerning
> such matching efforts. These non-citizens are no longer on
> voter rolls. There are other states that have been even more
> aggressive about the issue of attempting to verify that
> registered voters are citizens. Furthermore, although the
> evidence from our 2014 paper suggests that it is only
> partially effective at preventing non-citizens from voting,
> many states have moved to adopt tighter voter identification
> requirements.
> 2. The 2008 estimate is inherently uncertain. It depends upon a
> number of assumptions including assumptions about the validity
> of the survey data. Our critics
> <http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0261379415001420> have
> made a variety of arguments and I encourage readers to
> evaluate those arguments along with our responses
> <https://fs.wp.odu.edu/jrichman/wp-content/uploads/sites/760/2015/11/AnsolabehereResponse10-19-2016.pdf> to
> them.
>
> Best Regards,
>
> Jesse Richman
>
> *From:*law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
> [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] *On Behalf Of
> *Lorraine Minnite
> *Sent:* Thursday, December 01, 2016 12:27 AM
> *To:* law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
> *Subject:* Re: [EL] Curious if a single person on this list would back
> up President-Elect Trump on 2 assertions today
>
> Just to be clear: Are you suggesting that it is plausible that 834,318
> non-citizens voted for Hillary Clinton?
>
> Lori Minnite
>
> On 11/28/16 3:50 PM, Richman, Jesse T. wrote:
>
> Since some in Trump’s team seem to be attempting to use my
> coauthored 2014 study on non-citizen voting to support their
> claims, I think it’s worth walking through the extrapolation from
> those results to show how they do not support the argument that
> Trump would have won the popular vote were it not for illegal votes.
>
> Donald Trump recently suggested that his deficit in the popular
> vote to Clinton might be due entirely to illegal votes cast, for
> instance by non-citizens. Is this claim plausible? The claim
> Trump is making is not supported by our data.
>
> Here I run some extrapolations based upon the estimates for other
> elections from my coauthored 2014 paper on non-citizen voting.
> You can access that paper on the journal website here
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencedirect.com%2Fscience%2Farticle%2Fpii%2FS0261379414000973&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C98b19f53e7764cbf456708d419aad6aa%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=cmIMlGfHDkoct%2BtNB21YeJUdt2STIaknQ9GlTd3Ybc8%3D&reserved=0> and
> Judicial Watch has also posted a PDF
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.judicialwatch.org%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2014%2F10%2FDo-Non-Citizens-Vote-in-US-Elections-Richman-et-al.pdf&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C98b19f53e7764cbf456708d419aad6aa%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=6EbGybnx%2FxVkRNGdgssQw%2BNZUaB7diEdD0wJZfX7vYo%3D&reserved=0>.
> The basic assumptions on which the extrapolation is based are
> that 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted, and that of the
> non-citizens who voted, 81.8 percent voted for Clinton and
> 17.5 percent voted for Trump. These were numbers from our study
> for the 2008 campaign. Obviously to the extent that critics
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sciencedirect.com%2Fscience%2Farticle%2Fpii%2FS0261379415001420&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C98b19f53e7764cbf456708d419aad6aa%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=%2BmWlwxPHgJZJ8Qu1pwfCAyQWIRT7uvv4gaVJMccCRwU%3D&reserved=0> of
> my study are correct the first number (percentage of non-citizens
> who voted) may be too high, and the second number (percentage who
> voted for Clinton) may be too low.
>
> The count of the popular vote is still in flux as many states have
> yet to certify official final tallies. Here I used this
> unofficial tally
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdocs.google.com%2Fspreadsheets%2Fd%2F133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8%2Fhtmlview%3Fsle%3Dtrue%23gid%3D19&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C98b19f53e7764cbf456708d419aad6aa%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=v1GYbnPzGEOJlXRtDe5SPd88z5rh4IfLnrWuXDwKl0c%3D&reserved=0> linked
> by Real Clear Politics. As of this writing Trump is 2,235,663
> votes behind Clinton in the popular vote.
>
> If the assumptions stated above concerning non-citizen turnout are
> correct, could non-citizen turnout account for Clinton's popular
> vote margin? *There is no way it could have.* 6.4 percent turnout
> among the roughly 20.3 million non-citizen adults in the US would
> add only 834,318 votes to Clinton's popular vote margin. *This is
> little more than a third of the total margin.*
>
> Is it plausible that non-citizen votes added to Clinton's margin.
> Yes. *Is it plausible that non-citizen votes account for the
> entire nation-wide popular vote margin held by Clinton? Not at all.*
>
> If the percentage of non-citizens voting for Clinton is held
> constant, roughly 18.5 percent of non-citizens would have had to
> vote for their votes to have made up the entire Clinton popular
> vote margin. I don't think that this rate is at all plausible.
> Even if we assume that 90 percent voted for Clinton and only 10
> percent for Trump, a more than fourteen percent turnout would be
> necessary to account for Clinton's popular vote margin. This is
> much higher than the estimates we offered. Again, it seems too
> high to be plausible.
>
> Jesse Richman
>
> Jesse Richman
>
> Associate Professor of Political Science and International Studies
>
> Department of Political Science and Geography
>
> Old Dominion University
>
> BAL 7028
>
> Norfolk VA 23529
>
> 757-683-3853
>
> http://fs.wp.odu.edu/jrichman/
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Ffs.wp.odu.edu%2Fjrichman%2F&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C98b19f53e7764cbf456708d419aad6aa%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=NWDnrBLg1ay8atHvkcMw0nDWNvkY3nFTaDVxYKMQqek%3D&reserved=0>
>
>
> *From:*law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
> <mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu>
> [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] *On Behalf
> Of *Jon Sherman
> *Sent:* Monday, November 28, 2016 11:31 AM
> *To:* Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org> <mailto:rr at fairvote.org>
> *Cc:* law-election at UCI.EDU <mailto:law-election at UCI.EDU>
> *Subject:* Re: [EL] Curious if a single person on this list would
> back up President-Elect Trump on 2 assertions today
>
> The President-elect's comments at least have the virtue of
> consistency. Why should massive voter fraud only be real when
> Democrats win and suddenly mythological when Republicans prevail?
> Rob, I suspect no one on this list will take up your challenge and
> try to be as consistent in their myth-making as the
> President-elect. But if they do, have them also answer: why do
> illegal voters uniformly align with the Democratic Party?
> Presidential elections split every group and subgroup of voters
> but illegal voters seem to only vote Democratic.
>
> On Mon, Nov 28, 2016 at 11:11 AM, Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org
> <mailto:rr at fairvote.org>> wrote:
>
> Just affirming that no takers on this challenge of defending
> the two assertions made yesterday by Donald Trump?
>
> Thanks,
>
> Rob
>
> On Sunday, November 27, 2016, Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org
> <mailto:rr at fairvote.org>> wrote:
>
> Folks,
>
> President-elect Donald Trump has a quick thumb on Twitter,
> it seems. See report in New York Times,
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nytimes.com%2F2016%2F11%2F27%2Fus%2Fpolitics%2Ftrump-adviser-steps-up-searing-attack-on-romney.html&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=l%2Fs4SLF27Ty5OCpzTKTcHDIcSBdRSBpGEWqfjKn1mu8%3D&reserved=0>
> and see three tweets in a row at the bottom of this email,
> which put together result in this text:
>
> "In addition to winning the Electoral College in a
> landslide, I won the popular vote if you deduct the
> millions of people who voted illegally. It would have been
> much easier for me to win the so-called popular vote than
> the Electoral College in that I would only campaign in 3
> or 4 states instead of the 15 states that I visited. I
> would have won even more easily and convincingly (but
> smaller states are forgotten)!"
>
> So this list has participants with a full range of
> political opinions. But I'm curious to know if a single
> person on this list would attempt to back two claims in
> this statement:
>
> 1. Trump in fact won the popular vote this year "if you
> deduct the millions of people who voted illegally."
>
> 2. With a national popular vote, he would have campaigned
> in only 3 or 4 states instead of the whopping 15 states
> that he visited out of the nation's 51 (counting DC).
>
> When making your argument, keep in mind the latest data
> in from Dave Wasserman as he tracks the national popular
> vote here:
>
> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8/edit#gid=19
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdocs.google.com%2Fspreadsheets%2Fd%2F133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8%2Fedit%23gid%3D19&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=2dE1nfM52TpLnuHkua6tOWNkKPOi%2FXn2SYBbe5f%2BCqQ%3D&reserved=0>
>
> With votes still being counted and finalized, Clinton's
> lead is up to more than 2.2 million (48.2% to 46.5%). It
> is expected to rise to more than 2.5% and about two
> percentage points. So let us know where that many illegal
> votes were cast this year -- seems important to have that
> information!
>
> Also, keep in mind the math of our nation's states when
> defending Trump's prospective campaign tactics with a
> popular vote. Mike McDonald's spreadsheet on turnout is here
>
> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VAcF0eJ06y_8T4o2gvIL4YcyQy8pxb1zYkgXF76Uu1s/edit#gid=2030096602
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdocs.google.com%2Fspreadsheets%2Fd%2F1VAcF0eJ06y_8T4o2gvIL4YcyQy8pxb1zYkgXF76Uu1s%2Fedit%23gid%3D2030096602&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=RAiFer7Swfyweht4ANic%2BJJE4%2FRpbqSKtQhM7mtWoNg%3D&reserved=0>
>
> Assuming comparable turnout of eligible voters across
> state, a candidate could win 100% of the vote in the 4
> largest states (California, Texas, Florida and New York)
> and have only 31% of all votes in the nation. In, fact,
> you could win every cast in the 9 largest states and still
> be well under 50% of votes in the entire country - -and
> those states include a mix of strongly Democratic and
> Republican states, showing how still it is to suggest
> getting much more than half of the vote in those states in
> a nationally close election.
>
> So suggesting that campaigning in 15 states was due to our
> current Electoral College rules seems, well, a stretch.
> You can see how often he campaigned in those states, by
> the sway, at our tracker
>
> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14Lxw0vc4YBUwQ8cZouyewZvOGg6PyzS2mArWNe3iJcY/edit#gid=0
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fdocs.google.com%2Fspreadsheets%2Fd%2F14Lxw0vc4YBUwQ8cZouyewZvOGg6PyzS2mArWNe3iJcY%2Fedit%23gid%3D0&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=KlyyTIZUyMfKYBTZ%2FqVBPf74HMS0qjpBvpY%2BhEtI3TA%3D&reserved=0>
>
> Post-convention, Trump did well over half of his campaign
> evens in the four largest swing states - 26 campaign
> events in Florida, 16 in North Carolina, 13 in Ohio and
> 14 on Pennsylvania. Of our 13 states (counting DC) with 3
> or 4 electoral votes, he campaigned in only two -- 8
> events in New Hampshire, and 3 in Maine
>
> Thanks,
>
> Rob Richie
>
> 1.*Donald J.
> Trump* @realDonaldTrump<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FrealDonaldTrump&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=Qj%2BHpt7NhpYiRIXzZYs9WQX5S10o1S%2BZQwhiZDjkRzw%3D&reserved=0>3h3
> hours ago
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>
> states instead of the 15 states that I visited. I would
> have won even more easily and convincingly (but smaller
> states are forgotten)!
>
> *0 replies5,702 retweets23,008 likes*
>
> Reply
>
> Retweet
>
> *5.7K*
>
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>
> *23K*
>
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> 2.*Donald J.
> Trump* @realDonaldTrump<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FrealDonaldTrump&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=Qj%2BHpt7NhpYiRIXzZYs9WQX5S10o1S%2BZQwhiZDjkRzw%3D&reserved=0>4h4
> hours ago
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FrealDonaldTrump%2Fstatus%2F802973848022847489&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=649WGGzyNMH5oyMmcUfXZJGJY9YTWgs9JiGxtTQs8Hk%3D&reserved=0>
>
> It would have been much easier for me to win the so-called
> popular vote than the Electoral College in that I would
> only campaign in 3 or 4--
>
> *0 replies6,324 retweets23,768 likes*
>
> Reply
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>
> *6.3K*
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> *24K*
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> 3.*Donald J.
> Trump* @realDonaldTrump<https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FrealDonaldTrump&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=Qj%2BHpt7NhpYiRIXzZYs9WQX5S10o1S%2BZQwhiZDjkRzw%3D&reserved=0>4h4
> hours ago
> <https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FrealDonaldTrump%2Fstatus%2F802972944532209664&data=01%7C01%7Cjrichman%40odu.edu%7C7bf27b2d3f7643f1aef308d417ac5562%7C48bf86e811a24b8a8cb368d8be2227f3%7C0&sdata=FVD1%2Fq8cHKdT58jI5lmlo12TEh0YC9xSNwtqPidX0Gg%3D&reserved=0>
>
> In addition to winning the Electoral College in a
> landslide, I won the popular vote if you deduct the
> millions of people who voted illegally
>
>
> --
>
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> Rob Richie
> Executive Director, FairVote
> 6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 240
> Takoma Park, MD 20912
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> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> Rob Richie
> Executive Director, FairVote
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> Jon Sherman
>
> Counsel
> Fair Elections Legal Network
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