[EL] In brokered convention, can GOP nominate non-candidate?

Tue Mar 8 13:12:08 PST 2016

This exchange inspired me to do a follow up blog on our site. See
http://www.fairvote.org/new_polls_show_that_gop_split_vote_problem_continues

See  the rundown  of a new national poll and some state polls where
pollsters asked for head-to-head numbers. Here are two excerpts:

<<The ABC coverage of its new national poll
<http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-hits-wall-gop-critics-back-convention-fight/story?id=37474752%20>
released
today shows Trump ahead with 34 percent, followed by Ted Cruz with 25
percent, Marco Rubio with 18 percent, and John Kasich with 13 percent. But,
as ABC reports, "in hypothetical two-way matchups, Cruz leads Trump by
54-41 percent and Rubio leads Trump by 51-45 percent in this poll." In
other words, in an instant runoff tally, Cruz would pick up 29% between the
first round and final head-to-head with Trump, while Trump would gain only
7%.>>

<<Turning to next week's winner-take-all contest in Ohio, the new Public
Policy Poll
<http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_OH_30716.pdf> shows
that Trump leads with 38% over Kasich (35%), Cruz (15%) and Rubio
(5%)....[Kasich] moves far head of Trump head-to-head, by 55% to 40%.
Public Policy Polling reports that "Rubio voters move to Kasich 75/16 over
Trump, Cruz voters do so 69/25, and undecideds would pick him 54/11 if
Kasich and Trump ended up being the two candidates they chose.>>

On Tue, Mar 8, 2016 at 10:05 AM, Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org> wrote:

> You're absolutely correct, Vladimir, that ranked choice voting guarantees
> that winners win more than half the votes cast in the first round only if
> every voter ranks all but one candidate. Australia has that requirement
> ,but that has not been the norm in the countless other governmental and NGO
> elections with it.
>
> But RCV certainly leads to winners earning a majority votes in the final
> round of counting and more votes for voters than with plurality voting, and
> it almost always means more votes are cast and counted in the final round
> of decisive elections than in either primaries that winnow a field or in
> contingent runoffs that take place after the runoff.
>
> In the context of a high-profile race like the GOP presidential race, a
> good ballot design would likely mean the huge majority of voters would be
> ranking the entire field right now. Our fascinating collaboration with
> the College of William and Mary and YouGov in a poll
> <http://www.fairvote.org/national_poll_highlights_what_republican_voters_really_think> earlier
> this year of 1,000 likely Republican and independent voters found that more
> than nine in ten voluntarily chose to rank all 11 GOP candidates then in
> the race. And, quite instructively, Donald Trump lost in the final
> head-to-head matchup  <http://www.gop2016poll.com/>(in this case, with
> Ted Cruz) despite leading by a big margin first choices.
>
> I feel confident in our recent simulations of how RCV would be working in
> the GOP contest, such as this one
> <http://www.fairvote.org/simulating_instant_runoff_flips_most_donald_trump_primary_victories> Just
> as would be happening in today's contests, Trump would have struggled to
> win with RCV, and of course the scorched earth, uncivil style of this
> campaign almost certainly would have been softened.
> <http://www.fairvote.org/research_rcvcampaigncivility>Notably, new polls
> nationally (by ABC/Washington Post) and in Ohio and Michigan show that
> Trump handily loses head-to-head even while leading in the plurality
> choice.  If the GOP opposition stays fractured and Trump can maintain 35%,
> he has a great chance to win a majority of delegates despite nearly always
> being in a position where he would have lost the state in a 1-on-1 contest
> with his strongest opponent there.
>
> Rob Richie, FairVote
>
> On Tue, Mar 8, 2016 at 9:06 AM, Kogan, Vladimir <kogan.18 at osu.edu> wrote:
>
>> Please excuse the self-promotion, but ranked-choice voting is not an
>> “absolute” solution. It works only if voters are actually capable of
>> ranking all of the alternatives. If not (which seems to be the case in most
>> actual electoral settings), it can still result in elections being won
>> with a mere plurality
>> <http://u.osu.edu/kogan.18/files/2014/12/ElectoralStudies-2fupfhd.pdf>
>> (not majority) of votes cast.
>>
>>
>>
>> *From:* law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [mailto:
>> law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] *On Behalf Of *Thomas J.
>> Cares
>> *Sent:* Tuesday, March 08, 2016 3:33 AM
>> *To:* Election Law
>> *Subject:* Re: [EL] In brokered convention, can GOP nominate
>> non-candidate?
>>
>>
>>
>> (It should also be noted that Bloomberg's fear of tilting things to Trump
>> is another great reason why we need ranked choice voting. Plurality
>> severely botches democracy, and its solvability is ABSOLUTE. I really hope
>> those on this list would use their platforms in the election law profession
>> to educate the public on the need for this upgrade. Perhaps those of you
>> who have proven good at getting editorials published, could pen some on
>> this.)
>>
>>
>>
>> -Thomas Cares
>>
>> On Tuesday, March 8, 2016, Thomas J. Cares <Tom at tomcares.com> wrote:
>>
>> (I think the relevant portion starts at rule 40).
>>
>> On Tuesday, March 8, 2016, Thomas J. Cares <Tom at tomcares.com> wrote:
>>
>> I was looking at the rules and it seemed unclear.
>>
>>
>> https://prod-static-ngop-pbl.s3.amazonaws.com/media/documents/Call%20of%20the%202016%20Convention_1448920406.pdf
>>
>>
>>
>> Can they nominate Bloomberg, for example, on a 2nd ballot.
>>
>>
>>
>> If you ask me, they'd be smart to do so - might really save the
>> trajectory of the party.
>>
>>
>>
>> Thomas Cares
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> Law-election mailing list
>> Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
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>>
>
>
>
> --
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> Rob Richie
> Executive Director, FairVote
> 6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 240
> Takoma Park, MD 20912
> rr at fairvote.org  (301) 270-4616  http://www.fairvote.org
> *FairVote Facebook <https://www.facebook.com/FairVoteReform>*   *FairVote
> Twitter <https://twitter.com/fairvote>*   My Twitter
> <https://twitter.com/rob_richie>
>
> Thank you for considering a *donation <http://www.fairvote.org/donate>*
> <http://www.fairvote.org/donate>to support our reform vision
> <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U50uJohIw4c>.
> (Note: Our Combined Federal Campaign number is 10132.)
>

-- 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Rob Richie
Executive Director, FairVote
6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 240
Takoma Park, MD 20912
rr at fairvote.org  (301) 270-4616  http://www.fairvote.org
*FairVote Facebook <https://www.facebook.com/FairVoteReform>*   *FairVote
Twitter <https://twitter.com/fairvote>*   My Twitter
<https://twitter.com/rob_richie>

Thank you for considering a *donation <http://www.fairvote.org/donate>*
<http://www.fairvote.org/donate>to support our reform vision
<https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U50uJohIw4c>.
(Note: Our Combined Federal Campaign number is 10132.)
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