[EL] In brokered convention, can GOP nominate non-candidate?

[Rob Richie]

You're absolutely correct, Vladimir, that ranked choice voting guarantees
that winners win more than half the votes cast in the first round only if
every voter ranks all but one candidate. Australia has that requirement
,but that has not been the norm in the countless other governmental and NGO
elections with it.

But RCV certainly leads to winners earning a majority votes in the final
round of counting and more votes for voters than with plurality voting, and
it almost always means more votes are cast and counted in the final round
of decisive elections than in either primaries that winnow a field or in
contingent runoffs that take place after the runoff.

In the context of a high-profile race like the GOP presidential race, a
good ballot design would likely mean the huge majority of voters would be
ranking the entire field right now. Our fascinating collaboration with the
College of William and Mary and YouGov in a poll
<http://www.fairvote.org/national_poll_highlights_what_republican_voters_really_think>
earlier
this year of 1,000 likely Republican and independent voters found that more
than nine in ten voluntarily chose to rank all 11 GOP candidates then in
the race. And, quite instructively, Donald Trump lost in the final
head-to-head matchup  <http://www.gop2016poll.com/>(in this case, with Ted
Cruz) despite leading by a big margin first choices.

I feel confident in our recent simulations of how RCV would be working in
the GOP contest, such as this one
<http://www.fairvote.org/simulating_instant_runoff_flips_most_donald_trump_primary_victories>
Just
as would be happening in today's contests, Trump would have struggled to
win with RCV, and of course the scorched earth, uncivil style of this
campaign almost certainly would have been softened.
<http://www.fairvote.org/research_rcvcampaigncivility>Notably, new polls
nationally (by ABC/Washington Post) and in Ohio and Michigan show that
Trump handily loses head-to-head even while leading in the plurality
choice.  If the GOP opposition stays fractured and Trump can maintain 35%,
he has a great chance to win a majority of delegates despite nearly always
being in a position where he would have lost the state in a 1-on-1 contest
with his strongest opponent there.

Rob Richie, FairVote

On Tue, Mar 8, 2016 at 9:06 AM, Kogan, Vladimir <kogan.18 at osu.edu> wrote:

> Please excuse the self-promotion, but ranked-choice voting is not an
> “absolute” solution. It works only if voters are actually capable of
> ranking all of the alternatives. If not (which seems to be the case in most
> actual electoral settings), it can still result in elections being won
> with a mere plurality
> <http://u.osu.edu/kogan.18/files/2014/12/ElectoralStudies-2fupfhd.pdf>
> (not majority) of votes cast.
>
>
>
> *From:* law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [mailto:
> law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] *On Behalf Of *Thomas J.
> Cares
> *Sent:* Tuesday, March 08, 2016 3:33 AM
> *To:* Election Law
> *Subject:* Re: [EL] In brokered convention, can GOP nominate
> non-candidate?
>
>
>
> (It should also be noted that Bloomberg's fear of tilting things to Trump
> is another great reason why we need ranked choice voting. Plurality
> severely botches democracy, and its solvability is ABSOLUTE. I really hope
> those on this list would use their platforms in the election law profession
> to educate the public on the need for this upgrade. Perhaps those of you
> who have proven good at getting editorials published, could pen some on
> this.)
>
>
>
> -Thomas Cares
>
> On Tuesday, March 8, 2016, Thomas J. Cares <Tom at tomcares.com> wrote:
>
> (I think the relevant portion starts at rule 40).
>
> On Tuesday, March 8, 2016, Thomas J. Cares <Tom at tomcares.com> wrote:
>
> I was looking at the rules and it seemed unclear.
>
>
> https://prod-static-ngop-pbl.s3.amazonaws.com/media/documents/Call%20of%20the%202016%20Convention_1448920406.pdf
>
>
>
> Can they nominate Bloomberg, for example, on a 2nd ballot.
>
>
>
> If you ask me, they'd be smart to do so - might really save the trajectory
> of the party.
>
>
>
> Thomas Cares
>
>
>
> --
>
>
>
> --
>
>
>
> --
>
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-- 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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