[EL] ELB News and Commentary 11/11/16

Fri Nov 11 12:53:46 PST 2016

I have not changed the subject line on this post, nor have I, in my ten
years, ever cursed on this listserv.

But Lichtman is damn right -- is very likely on to something -- and for the
two sides of the same reason he cites, specifically.

Note also David Brooks's latest piece in the NYT. There Brooks admits Trump
is a conservative; an individualist. Then note Brooks's closing.

If you are a base Republican voter, lawyer, or academician, you should be
scared.

And if you are a Leftist academician, you should be even "scared-er." Laugh
if you must; I'll understand....

And I'll try to have more to say about this, later.

Thank you,

Steve
On Nov 11, 2016 2:29 PM, "Rick Hasen" <rhasen at law.uci.edu> wrote:

> *Super PAC Donor Literally Given a Seat at the Table for Trump’s
> Transition <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89187>*
>
> Posted on November 11, 2016 11:27 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89187>
>  by *Rick Hasen* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Announcement <https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/797157219066413057> from
> transition team that Rebekah Mercer is joining.
>
> Now’s the time to go back and study Matea Gold’s must-read
> <https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-rise-of-gop-mega-donor-rebekah-mercer/2016/09/13/85ae3c32-79bf-11e6-beac-57a4a412e93a_story.html> profile
> of Mercer.
>
> [image: hare]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89187&title=Super%20PAC%20Donor%20Literally%20Given%20a%20Seat%20at%20the%20Table%20for%20Trump%E2%80%99s%20Transition>
>
> Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, campaigns
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>, Plutocrats United
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=104>
>
>
>
>
>
> *ATL: Supreme Court Releases Statement Signalling Justice Kennedy Not
> Planning to Leave Court Soon <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89183>*
>
> Posted on November 11, 2016 10:43 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89183>
>  by *Rick Hasen* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Following up on this post, <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89140> David
> Lat of Above the Law
> <http://abovethelaw.com/2016/11/anatomy-of-a-rumor-on-justice-kennedys-retirement-next-year/> has
> obtained this statement from the Court:
>
> *Justice Kennedy is in the process of hiring clerks for 2017. The Justice
> didn’t go to Salzburg this past summer because it conflicted with some
> plans with his family, but he is scheduled to return to teach there in
> 2017. The reunion is scheduled for the end of this Term because the
> Justice’s law clerks wanted to hold it during the Justice’s 80th year to
> mark his birthday.*
>
> David adds:
>
> * This statement, which presumably reflects input from Justice Kennedy,
> strikes me as a persuasive and well-founded rebuttal to the rumors. If
> AMK were planning to retire next year, the easiest thing would have been
> for the Court to offer a simple “no comment.”*
>
> [image: hare]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89183&title=ATL%3A%20Supreme%20Court%20Releases%20Statement%20Signalling%20Justice%20Kennedy%20Not%20Planning%20to%20Leave%20Court%20Soon>
>
> Posted in Supreme Court <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>
>
>
>
>
>
> *“Effect of voting laws seen, but not enough to sway outcome”
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89181>*
>
> Posted on November 11, 2016 10:39 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89181>
>  by *Rick Hasen* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> AP:
> <http://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/nation-politics/effect-of-voting-laws-seen-but-not-enough-to-sway-outcome/>
>
> *Fourteen states had new voting or registration restrictions in place for
> the 2016 presidential election, raising concerns that minority voters in
> particular would have a harder time accessing the ballot box.*
>
> *Voting experts believe the laws had some effect on turnout this year, but
> said it would be difficult to measure against other factors — such as a
> lack of enthusiasm for either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton and the
> decision of many people simply not to vote.*
>
> *They expressed frustration that some states had made it more difficult
> for voters to participate, even if there is no evidence the changes
> influenced the outcome of the presidential election.*
>
> [image: hare]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89181&title=%E2%80%9CEffect%20of%20voting%20laws%20seen%2C%20but%20not%20enough%20to%20sway%20outcome%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, The
> Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>
>
>
>
>
>
> *“‘Prediction professor’ who called Trump’s big win also made another
> forecast: Trump will be impeached” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89179>*
>
> Posted on November 11, 2016 9:23 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89179>
>  by *Rick Hasen* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> WaPo:
> <https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/11/prediction-professor-who-called-trumps-big-win-also-made-another-forecast-trump-will-be-impeached/>
>
> *At the end of our September conversation, Lichtman made another call:
> That if elected, Trump would eventually be impeached by a Republican
> Congress that would prefer a President Mike Pence — someone who
> establishment Republicans know and trust.*
>
> *“I’m going to make another prediction,” he said. “This one is not based
> on a system, it’s just my gut. They don’t want Trump as president, because
> they can’t control him. He’s unpredictable. They’d love to have Pence — an
> absolutely down the line, conservative, controllable Republican. And I’m
> quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment, either by
> doing something that endangers national security or because it helps his
> pocketbook.”*
>
> [image: hare]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89179&title=%E2%80%9C%E2%80%98Prediction%20professor%E2%80%99%20who%20called%20Trump%E2%80%99s%20big%20win%20also%20made%20another%20forecast%3A%20Trump%20will%20be%20impeached%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in Uncategorized <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
>
>
>
>
>
> *“Voters reject voucher system for political contributions”
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89177>*
>
> Posted on November 11, 2016 9:19 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89177>
>  by *Rick Hasen* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> AP:
> <http://komonews.com/news/local/voters-reject-voucher-system-for-political-contributions>
>
> *Washington voters have rejected a measure that creates a publicly funded
> voucher system for political contributions.*
>
> *Initiative 1464’s voucher system would have given voters three $50
> “democracy credits” that they could use in state races every two years. To
> pay for the statewide system, the measure would have repealed the
> non-resident sales tax exemption for residents of sales-tax-free states
> like Oregon and Montana who shop in Washington.*
>
> [image: hare]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89177&title=%E2%80%9CVoters%20reject%20voucher%20system%20for%20political%20contributions%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>
>
>
>
>
>
> *“Hard Choice for Mitch McConnell: End the Filibuster or Preserve
> Tradition” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89175>*
>
> Posted on November 11, 2016 9:09 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89175>
>  by *Rick Hasen* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Carl Hulse NYT:
> <http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/12/us/politics/republicans-house-senate.html?_r=0>
>
> *In the afterglow of their election success, Republicans prefer not to
> discuss this unpleasant possibility. They would rather rhapsodize about a
> sunny legislative future in which the two parties work in harmony, negating
> the need for all those troublesome Senate cloture votes to try to break
> filibusters (a tactic that they, in fact, employed very effectively to
> stymie President Obama).*
>
> *“I think what the American people are looking for is results,”
> Senator Mitch McConnell
> <http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/m/mitch_mcconnell/index.html?inline=nyt-per>of
> Kentucky, who will retain his majority leader title by virtue of surprising
> Republican victories, told reporters. “And to get results in the Senate, as
> all of you know, it requires some Democratic participation and
> cooperation.”*
>
> *At the same time, Mr. McConnell said that repealing the Affordable Care
> Act was a “pretty high item on our agenda,” and he predicted quick action.
> “The sooner we can go in a different direction, the better,” he said.*
>
> *Democrats are certain to oppose that. Even if some red-state Democrats up
> for re-election in 2018 join Republicans, the repeal effort will most
> likely remain short of the 60 votes now needed.*
>
> *Republicans can use a special process known as reconciliation to avoid a
> filibuster. But that effort would take well into 2017 and would require
> passage of a congressional budget resolution, among other steps.*
>
> [image: hare]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89175&title=%E2%80%9CHard%20Choice%20for%20Mitch%20McConnell%3A%20End%20the%20Filibuster%20or%20Preserve%20Tradition%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in legislation and legislatures
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=27>
>
>
>
>
>
> *Senator-Turned-Lobbyist Trent Lott Promises to Help Trump “Drain the
> Swamp” in Washington <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89161>*
>
> Posted on November 10, 2016 3:11 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89161>
>  by *Rick Hasen* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> NYT:
> <http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/11/us/politics/lobbyists-trump.html?_r=0>
>
> *“Trump has pledged to change things in Washington — about draining the
> swamp,” said Mr. Lott, who now works at Squire Patton Boggs,
> <http://www.squirepattonboggs.com/> a law and lobbying firm. “He is going
> to need some people to help guide him through the swamp — how do you get in
> and how you get out? We are prepared to help do that.”*
>
> [image: hare]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89161&title=Senator-Turned-Lobbyist%20Trent%20Lott%20Promises%20to%20Help%20Trump%20%E2%80%9CDrain%20the%20Swamp%E2%80%9D%20in%20Washington>
>
> Posted in lobbying <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=28>
>
>
>
>
>
> *Congrats to Election Law Prof Jamie Raskin, Now Elected to Congress
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89158>*
>
> Posted on November 10, 2016 2:32 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89158>
>  by *Rick Hasen* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Jamie is a great guy
> <http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/new-member-democrat-jamie-raskin-elected-marylands-8th-district>and
> I wish him the best of luck.
>
> [image: hare]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89158&title=Congrats%20to%20Election%20Law%20Prof%20Jamie%20Raskin%2C%20Now%20Elected%20to%20Congress>
>
> Posted in election law biz <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=51>
>
>
>
>
>
> *“Lines, glitches, snafus, boobs, in other words a typical election”
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89156>*
>
> Posted on November 10, 2016 2:23 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89156>
>  by *Rick Hasen* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> That’s the lead story in this week’s Electionline Weekly.
> <http://www.electionline.org/index.php/electionline-weekly>
>
> [image: hare]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89156&title=%E2%80%9CLines%2C%20glitches%2C%20snafus%2C%20boobs%2C%20in%20other%20words%20a%20typical%20election%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in Uncategorized <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>
>
>
>
>
>
> *“Independent Spending Dominated the Closest Senate and House Races in
> 2016” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89152>*
>
> Posted on November 10, 2016 2:10 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89152>
>  by *Rick Hasen* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Important release
> <http://www.cfinst.org/Press/PReleases/16-11-10/INDEPENDENT_SPENDING_DOMINATED_THE_CLOSEST_SENATE_AND_HOUSE_RACES_IN_2016.aspx>from
> CFI:
>
> *The Campaign Finance Institute today released six tables comparing
> candidates’ receipts to independent spending in the most competitive Senate
> and House races of 2016. As several of the tables show in summary form
> (Tables 3-6), candidates tend to raise more money as their races become
> more competitive. But in the most competitive ones, independent spending by
> party, quasi-party and non-party committees this year has far outstripped
> the spending by candidates.*
>
> *Table 1
> <http://www.cfinst.org/pdf/federal/Congress/2016/PostElec_2016_Table1.pdf> covering
> all Senate races, lists the candidates’ receipts through pre-election
> disclosure reports alongside summary information for all independent
> spending through the election. The top race for spending in 2016 was the
> one in Pennsylvania between incumbent Sen. Patrick Toomey against Kathleen
> McGinty. Independent spending in that race alone topped $116 million – more
> than triple the amount raised by the candidates themselves. Seven other
> Senate races also saw independent spending above the $40 million mark – NV,
> NH, NC, OH, MO, IN, and FL (see Table 1
> <http://www.cfinst.org/pdf/federal/Congress/2016/PostElec_2016_Table2.pdf>).
> In most of these cases, the independent spending was at least double the
> money raised by the candidates. Subdividing the independent spending showed
> that there was rough parity between formal party organizations and the four
> quasi-party Super PACs1 on the one hand, and non-party organizations on the
> other.*
>
> *In House contests 40 different districts saw independent spending of at
> least $1 million (see Table 2
> <http://www.cfinst.org/pdf/federal/Congress/2016/PostElec_2016_Table6.pdf>).
> In twenty of the top twenty-two races with $5 million or more of
> independent spending, that spending exceeded the candidates’ receipts.
> Relatively speaking, the party and quasi-party committees spent less money
> on House elections than did non-party organizations.*
>
> [image: hare]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89152&title=%E2%80%9CIndependent%20Spending%20Dominated%20the%20Closest%20Senate%20and%20House%20Races%20in%202016%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>
>
>
>
>
>
> *Bert Rein, Lawyer for Shelby County, Says Maybe #SCOTUS Decision Good
> Because It Deterred “Some Illegals” from Voting
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89148>*
>
> Posted on November 10, 2016 2:02 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89148>
>  by *Rick Hasen* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Wow: <https://bol.bna.com/did-new-voter-laws-tip-the-election/>
>
> *Both Kang and Hasen said whether the Shelby decision tipped the election
> is less important than whether it unnecessarily disenfranchised any number
> of voters, even if it was less than a substantial amount.*
>
> *We put the same question to Bert Rein, of Wiley Rein, who argued on
> behalf of Shelby County, Alabama that the Voting Rights Act
> was unconstitutional.*
>
> *“You know, I saw that in Rick Hasen’s blog,” he acknowledged.*
>
> *Rein laid out the issue as he sees it: “Were those changes sufficiently
> impactful to really influence the outcome? I don’t know the answer. Some
> people would say sure because it dissuaded some Hispanic and other voters
> who would have voted. But maybe some illegals would also have voted and
> that’s not good.”*
>
> *The main impact of Shelby was that it allowed some states to more rapidly
> change voter laws, he said.*
>
> *“I’d love to take credit for it and then Donald Trump could write me a
> nice letter,” said Rein.*
>
> [image: hare]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89148&title=Bert%20Rein%2C%20Lawyer%20for%20Shelby%20County%2C%20Says%20Maybe%20%23SCOTUS%20Decision%20Good%20Because%20It%20Deterred%20%E2%80%9CSome%20Illegals%E2%80%9D%20from%20Voting>
>
> Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, Supreme
> Court <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>, The Voting Wars
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>, Voting Rights Act
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=15>
>
>
>
>
>
> *“Durham County’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Election Day”
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89146>*
>
> Posted on November 10, 2016 1:59 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89146>
>  by *Rick Hasen* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> A ChapinBlog.
> <http://editions.lib.umn.edu/electionacademy/2016/11/10/durham-countys-terrible-horrible-no-good-very-bad-election-day/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+HHHElections+%28The+Election+Academy%29>
>
>
>
> [image: hare]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89146&title=%E2%80%9CDurham%20County%E2%80%99s%20Terrible%2C%20Horrible%2C%20No%20Good%2C%20Very%20Bad%20Election%20Day%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>
>
>
>
>
>
> *“In Close Race for North Carolina Governor, Democrat Claims Victory
> Though GOP Incumbent Hasn’t Conceded” <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89144>*
>
> Posted on November 10, 2016 1:57 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89144>
>  by *Rick Hasen* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> WSJ:
> <http://www.wsj.com/articles/in-close-race-for-north-carolina-governor-democrat-claims-victory-though-republican-incumbent-hasnt-conceded-1478719475?emailToken=JRr8fvtzY3yXhNM9acw90hgjaq4TBqqTT1jaaX7NIA3Ks2bJoaeqzr8yg9qxqCagQlh3/dYD9SszSDjWi3BjQIqan7d+lEzhZXhWspbewEiXOkPGk07PZ+cEq6PR/yJg6OxaHANNZ9Ie2129sRDuqMwaEV+HbzYSQKzUzmMlOPJ1JXsEWg==>
>
> *Next, county canvassers likely will sort through roughly 10,000 absentee
> vote, as well as about 30,000 provisional votes from people who recently
> moved or who registered too recently to be reflected in the voting rolls,
> said Gerry Cohen, former special counsel to the North Carolina legislature
> and an expert on state election law. Democrats are pinning their hopes on
> the fact that many provisional ballots are typically filed on college
> campuses and big cities, he said.*
>
> *Although Republicans tend to hold a historic advantage in absentee
> voting, the Democratic nominee Mr. Cooper has been doing comparatively well
> in that category so far this cycle, Mr. Cohen said.*
>
> *Mr. McCrory’s backers say he is likely to ask for a recount after the
> provisional and absentee votes are counted, if the margin stays less than
> 10,000 votes. County elections officials meet Nov. 18 to begin certifying
> results, and a recount request must be made no later than Nov. 22,
> according to state law.*
>
> [image: hare]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89144&title=%E2%80%9CIn%20Close%20Race%20for%20North%20Carolina%20Governor%2C%20Democrat%20Claims%20Victory%20Though%20GOP%20Incumbent%20Hasn%E2%80%99t%20Conceded%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
> recounts <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=50>
>
>
>
>
>
> *“Frias alleges ‘pervasive mail ballot fraud’ by Mattiello campaign”
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89142>*
>
> Posted on November 10, 2016 1:54 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89142>
>  by *Rick Hasen* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> A big fight
> <http://www.providencejournal.com/news/20161110/frias-alleges-pervasive-mail-ballot-fraud-by-mattiello-campaign>involving
> possible absentee ballot fraud and the Rhode Island House speaker.
>
> [image: hare]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89142&title=%E2%80%9CFrias%20alleges%20%E2%80%98pervasive%20mail%20ballot%20fraud%E2%80%99%20by%20Mattiello%20campaign%E2%80%9D>
>
> Posted in absentee ballots <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=53>, chicanery
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>
>
>
>
>
>
> *Justice Kennedy, Not Thomas, the Next to Go from #SCOTUS?
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89140>*
>
> Posted on November 10, 2016 1:51 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89140>
>  by *Rick Hasen* <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> That’s the rumor, <https://twitter.com/isamuel/status/796824470707142657> and
> it appears to have some credibility to it. But maybe not.
> <https://twitter.com/chris_j_walker/status/796831440633786368> (Update:
> More maybe not from David Lat
> <https://twitter.com/DavidLat/status/796834564551409664>.)
>
> I had thought <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89052> Justice Thomas, given
> what I heard of rumblings he had had enough.
>
> Of course, it could also be Justice Ginsburg
> <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89103>, depending upon her health, or any
> other Justice for that reason.
>
> [image: hare]
> <https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89140&title=Justice%20Kennedy%2C%20Not%20Thomas%2C%20the%20Next%20to%20Go%20from%20%23SCOTUS%3F>
>
> Posted in Supreme Court <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>
>
>
>
>
>
> --
>
> Rick Hasen
>
> Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
>
> UC Irvine School of Law
>
> 401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
>
> Irvine, CA 92697-8000
>
> 949.824.3072 - office
>
> 949.824.0495 - fax
>
> rhasen at law.uci.edu
>
> http://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/
>
> http://electionlawblog.org
>
> _______________________________________________
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