[EL] ELB News and Commentary 11/11/16

Fri Nov 11 11:29:23 PST 2016

Super PAC Donor Literally Given a Seat at the Table for Trump’s Transition<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89187>
Posted on November 11, 2016 11:27 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89187> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Announcement<https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/797157219066413057> from transition team that Rebekah Mercer is joining.
Now’s the time to go back and study Matea Gold’s must-read<https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-rise-of-gop-mega-donor-rebekah-mercer/2016/09/13/85ae3c32-79bf-11e6-beac-57a4a412e93a_story.html> profile of Mercer.
[hare]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89187&title=Super%20PAC%20Donor%20Literally%20Given%20a%20Seat%20at%20the%20Table%20for%20Trump%E2%80%99s%20Transition>
Posted in campaign finance<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, campaigns<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>, Plutocrats United<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=104>

ATL: Supreme Court Releases Statement Signalling Justice Kennedy Not Planning to Leave Court Soon<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89183>
Posted on November 11, 2016 10:43 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89183> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Following up on this post,<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89140> David Lat of Above the Law<http://abovethelaw.com/2016/11/anatomy-of-a-rumor-on-justice-kennedys-retirement-next-year/> has obtained this statement from the Court:
Justice Kennedy is in the process of hiring clerks for 2017. The Justice didn’t go to Salzburg this past summer because it conflicted with some plans with his family, but he is scheduled to return to teach there in 2017. The reunion is scheduled for the end of this Term because the Justice’s law clerks wanted to hold it during the Justice’s 80th year to mark his birthday.
David adds:
 This statement, which presumably reflects input from Justice Kennedy, strikes me as a persuasive and well-founded rebuttal to the rumors. If AMK were planning to retire next year, the easiest thing would have been for the Court to offer a simple “no comment.”
[hare]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89183&title=ATL%3A%20Supreme%20Court%20Releases%20Statement%20Signalling%20Justice%20Kennedy%20Not%20Planning%20to%20Leave%20Court%20Soon>
Posted in Supreme Court<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>

“Effect of voting laws seen, but not enough to sway outcome”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89181>
Posted on November 11, 2016 10:39 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89181> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
AP:<http://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/nation-politics/effect-of-voting-laws-seen-but-not-enough-to-sway-outcome/>
Fourteen states had new voting or registration restrictions in place for the 2016 presidential election, raising concerns that minority voters in particular would have a harder time accessing the ballot box.
Voting experts believe the laws had some effect on turnout this year, but said it would be difficult to measure against other factors — such as a lack of enthusiasm for either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton and the decision of many people simply not to vote.
They expressed frustration that some states had made it more difficult for voters to participate, even if there is no evidence the changes influenced the outcome of the presidential election.
[hare]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89181&title=%E2%80%9CEffect%20of%20voting%20laws%20seen%2C%20but%20not%20enough%20to%20sway%20outcome%E2%80%9D>
Posted in election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, The Voting Wars<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>

“‘Prediction professor’ who called Trump’s big win also made another forecast: Trump will be impeached”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89179>
Posted on November 11, 2016 9:23 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89179> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
WaPo:<https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/11/11/prediction-professor-who-called-trumps-big-win-also-made-another-forecast-trump-will-be-impeached/>
At the end of our September conversation, Lichtman made another call: That if elected, Trump would eventually be impeached by a Republican Congress that would prefer a President Mike Pence — someone who establishment Republicans know and trust.
“I’m going to make another prediction,” he said. “This one is not based on a system, it’s just my gut. They don’t want Trump as president, because they can’t control him. He’s unpredictable. They’d love to have Pence — an absolutely down the line, conservative, controllable Republican. And I’m quite certain Trump will give someone grounds for impeachment, either by doing something that endangers national security or because it helps his pocketbook.”
[hare]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89179&title=%E2%80%9C%E2%80%98Prediction%20professor%E2%80%99%20who%20called%20Trump%E2%80%99s%20big%20win%20also%20made%20another%20forecast%3A%20Trump%20will%20be%20impeached%E2%80%9D>
Posted in Uncategorized<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

“Voters reject voucher system for political contributions”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89177>
Posted on November 11, 2016 9:19 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89177> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
AP:<http://komonews.com/news/local/voters-reject-voucher-system-for-political-contributions>
Washington voters have rejected a measure that creates a publicly funded voucher system for political contributions.
Initiative 1464’s voucher system would have given voters three $50 “democracy credits” that they could use in state races every two years. To pay for the statewide system, the measure would have repealed the non-resident sales tax exemption for residents of sales-tax-free states like Oregon and Montana who shop in Washington.
[hare]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89177&title=%E2%80%9CVoters%20reject%20voucher%20system%20for%20political%20contributions%E2%80%9D>
Posted in campaign finance<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>

“Hard Choice for Mitch McConnell: End the Filibuster or Preserve Tradition”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89175>
Posted on November 11, 2016 9:09 am<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89175> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Carl Hulse NYT:<http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/12/us/politics/republicans-house-senate.html?_r=0>
In the afterglow of their election success, Republicans prefer not to discuss this unpleasant possibility. They would rather rhapsodize about a sunny legislative future in which the two parties work in harmony, negating the need for all those troublesome Senate cloture votes to try to break filibusters (a tactic that they, in fact, employed very effectively to stymie President Obama).
“I think what the American people are looking for is results,” Senator Mitch McConnell<http://topics.nytimes.com/top/reference/timestopics/people/m/mitch_mcconnell/index.html?inline=nyt-per>of Kentucky, who will retain his majority leader title by virtue of surprising Republican victories, told reporters. “And to get results in the Senate, as all of you know, it requires some Democratic participation and cooperation.”
At the same time, Mr. McConnell said that repealing the Affordable Care Act was a “pretty high item on our agenda,” and he predicted quick action. “The sooner we can go in a different direction, the better,” he said.
Democrats are certain to oppose that. Even if some red-state Democrats up for re-election in 2018 join Republicans, the repeal effort will most likely remain short of the 60 votes now needed.
Republicans can use a special process known as reconciliation to avoid a filibuster. But that effort would take well into 2017 and would require passage of a congressional budget resolution, among other steps.
[hare]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89175&title=%E2%80%9CHard%20Choice%20for%20Mitch%20McConnell%3A%20End%20the%20Filibuster%20or%20Preserve%20Tradition%E2%80%9D>
Posted in legislation and legislatures<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=27>

Senator-Turned-Lobbyist Trent Lott Promises to Help Trump “Drain the Swamp” in Washington<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89161>
Posted on November 10, 2016 3:11 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89161> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
NYT:<http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/11/us/politics/lobbyists-trump.html?_r=0>
“Trump has pledged to change things in Washington — about draining the swamp,” said Mr. Lott, who now works at Squire Patton Boggs,<http://www.squirepattonboggs.com/> a law and lobbying firm. “He is going to need some people to help guide him through the swamp — how do you get in and how you get out? We are prepared to help do that.”
[hare]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89161&title=Senator-Turned-Lobbyist%20Trent%20Lott%20Promises%20to%20Help%20Trump%20%E2%80%9CDrain%20the%20Swamp%E2%80%9D%20in%20Washington>
Posted in lobbying<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=28>

Congrats to Election Law Prof Jamie Raskin, Now Elected to Congress<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89158>
Posted on November 10, 2016 2:32 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89158> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Jamie is a great guy <http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/new-member-democrat-jamie-raskin-elected-marylands-8th-district> and I wish him the best of luck.
[hare]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89158&title=Congrats%20to%20Election%20Law%20Prof%20Jamie%20Raskin%2C%20Now%20Elected%20to%20Congress>
Posted in election law biz<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=51>

“Lines, glitches, snafus, boobs, in other words a typical election”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89156>
Posted on November 10, 2016 2:23 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89156> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
That’s the lead story in this week’s Electionline Weekly.<http://www.electionline.org/index.php/electionline-weekly>
[hare]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89156&title=%E2%80%9CLines%2C%20glitches%2C%20snafus%2C%20boobs%2C%20in%20other%20words%20a%20typical%20election%E2%80%9D>
Posted in Uncategorized<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

“Independent Spending Dominated the Closest Senate and House Races in 2016”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89152>
Posted on November 10, 2016 2:10 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89152> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Important release <http://www.cfinst.org/Press/PReleases/16-11-10/INDEPENDENT_SPENDING_DOMINATED_THE_CLOSEST_SENATE_AND_HOUSE_RACES_IN_2016.aspx> from CFI:
The Campaign Finance Institute today released six tables comparing candidates’ receipts to independent spending in the most competitive Senate and House races of 2016. As several of the tables show in summary form (Tables 3-6), candidates tend to raise more money as their races become more competitive. But in the most competitive ones, independent spending by party, quasi-party and non-party committees this year has far outstripped the spending by candidates.
Table 1<http://www.cfinst.org/pdf/federal/Congress/2016/PostElec_2016_Table1.pdf> covering all Senate races, lists the candidates’ receipts through pre-election disclosure reports alongside summary information for all independent spending through the election. The top race for spending in 2016 was the one in Pennsylvania between incumbent Sen. Patrick Toomey against Kathleen McGinty. Independent spending in that race alone topped $116 million – more than triple the amount raised by the candidates themselves. Seven other Senate races also saw independent spending above the $40 million mark – NV, NH, NC, OH, MO, IN, and FL (see Table 1<http://www.cfinst.org/pdf/federal/Congress/2016/PostElec_2016_Table2.pdf>). In most of these cases, the independent spending was at least double the money raised by the candidates. Subdividing the independent spending showed that there was rough parity between formal party organizations and the four quasi-party Super PACs1 on the one hand, and non-party organizations on the other.
In House contests 40 different districts saw independent spending of at least $1 million (see Table 2<http://www.cfinst.org/pdf/federal/Congress/2016/PostElec_2016_Table6.pdf>). In twenty of the top twenty-two races with $5 million or more of independent spending, that spending exceeded the candidates’ receipts. Relatively speaking, the party and quasi-party committees spent less money on House elections than did non-party organizations.
[hare]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89152&title=%E2%80%9CIndependent%20Spending%20Dominated%20the%20Closest%20Senate%20and%20House%20Races%20in%202016%E2%80%9D>
Posted in campaign finance<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>

Bert Rein, Lawyer for Shelby County, Says Maybe #SCOTUS Decision Good Because It Deterred “Some Illegals” from Voting<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89148>
Posted on November 10, 2016 2:02 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89148> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Wow:<https://bol.bna.com/did-new-voter-laws-tip-the-election/>
Both Kang and Hasen said whether the Shelby decision tipped the election is less important than whether it unnecessarily disenfranchised any number of voters, even if it was less than a substantial amount.
We put the same question to Bert Rein, of Wiley Rein, who argued on behalf of Shelby County, Alabama that the Voting Rights Act was unconstitutional.
“You know, I saw that in Rick Hasen’s blog,” he acknowledged.
Rein laid out the issue as he sees it: “Were those changes sufficiently impactful to really influence the outcome? I don’t know the answer. Some people would say sure because it dissuaded some Hispanic and other voters who would have voted. But maybe some illegals would also have voted and that’s not good.”
The main impact of Shelby was that it allowed some states to more rapidly change voter laws, he said.
“I’d love to take credit for it and then Donald Trump could write me a nice letter,” said Rein.
[hare]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89148&title=Bert%20Rein%2C%20Lawyer%20for%20Shelby%20County%2C%20Says%20Maybe%20%23SCOTUS%20Decision%20Good%20Because%20It%20Deterred%20%E2%80%9CSome%20Illegals%E2%80%9D%20from%20Voting>
Posted in election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, Supreme Court<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>, The Voting Wars<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>, Voting Rights Act<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=15>

“Durham County’s Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Election Day”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89146>
Posted on November 10, 2016 1:59 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89146> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
A ChapinBlog.<http://editions.lib.umn.edu/electionacademy/2016/11/10/durham-countys-terrible-horrible-no-good-very-bad-election-day/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+HHHElections+%28The+Election+Academy%29>

[hare]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89146&title=%E2%80%9CDurham%20County%E2%80%99s%20Terrible%2C%20Horrible%2C%20No%20Good%2C%20Very%20Bad%20Election%20Day%E2%80%9D>
Posted in election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>

“In Close Race for North Carolina Governor, Democrat Claims Victory Though GOP Incumbent Hasn’t Conceded”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89144>
Posted on November 10, 2016 1:57 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89144> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
WSJ: <http://www.wsj.com/articles/in-close-race-for-north-carolina-governor-democrat-claims-victory-though-republican-incumbent-hasnt-conceded-1478719475?emailToken=JRr8fvtzY3yXhNM9acw90hgjaq4TBqqTT1jaaX7NIA3Ks2bJoaeqzr8yg9qxqCagQlh3/dYD9SszSDjWi3BjQIqan7d+lEzhZXhWspbewEiXOkPGk07PZ+cEq6PR/yJg6OxaHANNZ9Ie2129sRDuqMwaEV+HbzYSQKzUzmMlOPJ1JXsEWg==>
Next, county canvassers likely will sort through roughly 10,000 absentee vote, as well as about 30,000 provisional votes from people who recently moved or who registered too recently to be reflected in the voting rolls, said Gerry Cohen, former special counsel to the North Carolina legislature and an expert on state election law. Democrats are pinning their hopes on the fact that many provisional ballots are typically filed on college campuses and big cities, he said.
Although Republicans tend to hold a historic advantage in absentee voting, the Democratic nominee Mr. Cooper has been doing comparatively well in that category so far this cycle, Mr. Cohen said.
Mr. McCrory’s backers say he is likely to ask for a recount after the provisional and absentee votes are counted, if the margin stays less than 10,000 votes. County elections officials meet Nov. 18 to begin certifying results, and a recount request must be made no later than Nov. 22, according to state law.
[hare]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89144&title=%E2%80%9CIn%20Close%20Race%20for%20North%20Carolina%20Governor%2C%20Democrat%20Claims%20Victory%20Though%20GOP%20Incumbent%20Hasn%E2%80%99t%20Conceded%E2%80%9D>
Posted in election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, recounts<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=50>

“Frias alleges ‘pervasive mail ballot fraud’ by Mattiello campaign”<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89142>
Posted on November 10, 2016 1:54 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89142> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
A big fight <http://www.providencejournal.com/news/20161110/frias-alleges-pervasive-mail-ballot-fraud-by-mattiello-campaign> involving possible absentee ballot fraud and the Rhode Island House speaker.
[hare]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89142&title=%E2%80%9CFrias%20alleges%20%E2%80%98pervasive%20mail%20ballot%20fraud%E2%80%99%20by%20Mattiello%20campaign%E2%80%9D>
Posted in absentee ballots<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=53>, chicanery<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>

Justice Kennedy, Not Thomas, the Next to Go from #SCOTUS?<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89140>
Posted on November 10, 2016 1:51 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89140> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
That’s the rumor,<https://twitter.com/isamuel/status/796824470707142657> and it appears to have some credibility to it. But maybe not.<https://twitter.com/chris_j_walker/status/796831440633786368> (Update: More maybe not from David Lat<https://twitter.com/DavidLat/status/796834564551409664>.)
I had thought<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89052> Justice Thomas, given what I heard of rumblings he had had enough.
Of course, it could also be Justice Ginsburg<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=89103>, depending upon her health, or any other Justice for that reason.
[hare]<https://www.addtoany.com/share#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D89140&title=Justice%20Kennedy%2C%20Not%20Thomas%2C%20the%20Next%20to%20Go%20from%20%23SCOTUS%3F>
Posted in Supreme Court<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>

--
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-8000
949.824.3072 - office
949.824.0495 - fax
rhasen at law.uci.edu<mailto:rhasen at law.uci.edu>
http://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/
http://electionlawblog.org<http://electionlawblog.org/>
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