[EL] Dr. Allan Lichtman's Keys- a response

[Pildes, Rick]

Thanks Jeff -

Richard H. Pildes
Sudler Family Professor of Constitutional Law
NYU School of Law

From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Jeff Wice
Sent: Friday, November 11, 2016 9:20 AM
To: Jeff Wice
Cc: law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
Subject: [EL] Dr. Allan Lichtman's Keys- a response

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As a courtesy to Dr. Allan Lichtman, I am posting a response he is sharing regarding his presidential "keys."

Jeff Wice
Fellow
SUNY Buffalo Law School
Of Counsel, Sandler Reiff Lamb Rosenstein  & Birkenstock PC

>From Dr. Lichtman:

"There is a changing dynamic between the Electoral College and the popular vote, the latter of which is becoming increasingly meaningless. New York and California, which have become strictly non-competitive, produce many millions of additional votes for the Democrats that don't impact the Electoral College, while Republican votes are more broadly distributed around the country and do impact the Electoral College. Also, in Texas, the only reliably Red large state, the gap between the parties is narrowing, producing fewer extra popular votes for Republicans. I developed the Keys at a time when the popular vote largely drove the electoral college. Since that is no longer the case, I am rethinking the relationship between the popular vote and the Electoral College as they relate to the Keys, which is a reason I did not this time make the popular vote/electoral vote distinction in issuing my prediction. The changed relationship between these two votes is not only important for the Keys, but represents a major development in the political history of the United States."




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