[EL] Media-vote suppression

[Hess, Doug]

There is academic research out there on this topic. I don’t recall the authors right now. I believe Brady at Berkeley wrote about this a bit. It might be on his university website (UC-B policy school).

Douglas R Hess
Assistant Professor of Political Science
On research leave for Fall Semester 2016.
http://www.douglasrhess.com<http://www.douglasrhess.com/>

Grinnell College
1210 Park Street, Carnegie Hall #309
Grinnell, IA 50112
phone: 641-269-4383


From: John Ryder [mailto:jryder531 at gmail.com]
Sent: Sunday, November 13, 2016 9:50 PM
To: Lillie Coney <coney at lillieconey.net>
Cc: John Tanner <john.k.tanner at gmail.com>; Election Law Listserve <law-election at department-lists.uci.edu>; Hess, Doug <HESSDOUG at Grinnell.EDU>
Subject: Re: [EL] Media-vote suppression

Did Florida's reporting of results before the polls in the Panhandle closed affect voting there?

Sent from my iPhone

On Nov 13, 2016, at 7:56 PM, Lillie Coney <coney at lillieconey.net<mailto:coney at lillieconey.net>> wrote:
The other questions:

Does reporting on national polls confuse voters on how the selection of the President occurs?

Did poll numbers make Rs who were on the fence think that it would work out without them having to cast a vote for the other party's candidate?

Did the Comey effect make all polling data for early voting swing states worthless? (Survey data only on those who cast votes during the 9 day window would be helpful).  It was too bad he could not sent that letter Friday or 72 hours prior to the election while early voting was still occurring.




Sent from my iPhone

On Nov 13, 2016, at 4:27 PM, John Tanner <john.k.tanner at gmail.com<mailto:john.k.tanner at gmail.com>> wrote:
FWIW, l have always heard that it was bad poll numbers for X that drove down turnout for X, and that certainly accords with candidates' emphasizing the positive in talking about their poll numbers.
Sent from my iPhone

On Nov 13, 2016, at 3:29 PM, Hess, Doug <HESSDOUG at Grinnell.EDU<mailto:HESSDOUG at Grinnell.EDU>> wrote:
This is an interesting question. I don’t know if it has been studied. The reverse question--if you think an election is close, are you more likely to vote?--might also be worth thinking about. The dynamics may not be symmetrical however. However, if campaigns think an election is close in a jurisdiction, they are likely to put more resources into it which can lead to greater turnout, so it becomes complex (in a classic social science way) issue to study.

Douglas R Hess
Assistant Professor of Political Science
On research leave for Fall Semester 2016.
http://www.douglasrhess.com<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.douglasrhess.com_&d=DgMFaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=ef3Sniz3vEjIbpUqFQ5QuoqKKK_D7lFtfFTT87040UU&s=DNeTAJChHLhkZ5JIlxHnbhEDBX9hsmQAp2h7M1Th2CI&e=>

Grinnell College
1210 Park Street, Carnegie Hall #309
Grinnell, IA 50112
phone: 641-269-4383


From: joseph.e.larue [mailto:joseph.e.larue at gmail.com]
Sent: Saturday, November 12, 2016 8:42 AM
To: Election Law Listserve <law-election at department-lists.uci.edu<mailto:law-election at department-lists.uci.edu>>
Subject: [EL] Media-vote suppression

Has anyone given any thought, or seen any surveys, on what effect the media might have had on the Democratic vote? For several weeks leading up to the election, much of the media was proclaiming a big Clinton win. I'm wondering whether that might have suppressed the Democratic vote, by causing some Democrats to feel that their vote was not really needed and so helping them decide to skip the lines on Election Day. Just wondering if anyone has seen any surveys of voters that might indicate that type of effect.



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