[EL] PA POTUS numbers

Sat Nov 26 08:23:10 PST 2016

Adam is correct.  Looking at votes on the machines only (all that is official until Monday afternoon), the Philadelphia turnout is the following:

2016 - 685339
2012 - 656263
2004 - 652719

There was a problem with pollbook printing  in 2012 that increased provisional ballots by 16000 from past presidentials, so correcting for that you have a fairy straight line turnout increase that tracks the city's slight growth (when you remove a slightly outsized 2008 turnout).

Valid provisionals and absentees are likely to be in the 25-30,000 range solely based on pst trends (and correcting for the known 2012 problem).

There isn't also a dramatic percentage change citywide:

Dem-Rep on machines by cycle:
2016: 82.2-15.5
2012: 85.2-14.0
2008: 83.0-16.4
2004: 80.4-19.3

Since the 2012 provisional ballot problem was higher in the 26th Ward (the only one Obama lost in either cycle and one of only three that Clinton lost) that percentage may even be slightly exaggerated.

There is one interesting element: 11,000 more Philadelphians wasted machine votes (defined as voting for someone other than the two major party candidates -- with all apologies to Richard Wagner) in 2016 compared to 2012.   While the Philly votes alone are not enough to tilt the state, it certainly is clear that third party votes could have been the difference in PA 16, akin to FL 2000.   Makes us all feel "better" that Jill Stein is using the close race to scam another $7 million.

Kevin Greenberg
215-279-9912
kevin.greenberg at flastergreenberg.com<mailto:kevin.greenberg at flastergreenberg.com>

On Nov 25, 2016, at 8:11 PM, Adam Bonin <adam at boninlaw.com<mailto:adam at boninlaw.com>> wrote:

I believe, and Kevin Greenberg will jump in if I'm wrong, that the Philadelphia numbers do not include the absentee vote yet.  It is unique among the counties in not shipping the absentees to the precincts for counting on election night; they're all done in a centralized process instead.

In 2012, the absentee vote added over 12K to Obama's Phila total, and over 9K to his city margin.  Add that again this year, and turnout will be ahead of 2012.

Adam C. Bonin
The Law Office of Adam C. Bonin
30 South 15th Street
15th Floor
Philadelphia, PA 19102

(267) 242-5014 (c)
(215) 701-2321 (f)
adam at boninlaw.com<mailto:adam at boninlaw.com>
http://www.boninlaw.com

On Fri, Nov 25, 2016 at 7:43 PM, Thomas J. Cares <Tom at tomcares.com<mailto:Tom at tomcares.com>> wrote:
I wrote this for Facebook but it might be interesting for this list to digest. My source is the PA SoS website as of 14 hours ago. The numbers feel weird. I mean Trump supporters may have just turned out better (for political reasons), or could it be something else?

I crunched some numbers on Pennsylvania. Interesting stuff. Clinton is down 70,010 votes. Obama was up 309,840, over Romney, a shift of 380k. Turnout was up 268k. Trump got 252.4k more votes than Romney. Gary Johnson got 94k more votes than he received in 2012. Almost triple. Jill Stein received 27.8k more than in 2012. More than double. A new minor candidate received 21k votes. ...Hillary received 127.4k fewer votes in Pennsylvania, than 2012-Obama. The only one to receive fewer than her party did 4 years ago.

Just the shift in Philadelphia county, equals half of Trump's statewide lead over Hillary. Hillary carried 82.4% of Philadelphia County. Pretty good, eh? But 2012-Obama carried it with 85.3. And while statewide turnout increased by 268k votes, 6,843 FEWER voters turned out in Philadelphia County. ...Hillary led Trump in that county by 34,940 fewer votes than Obama led Romney. That is virtually half the 70,010 she is down statewide. Of course, Hillary under-performed Obama much worse in the rest of the state. Philadelphia County has 12.24% of the state population, while accounting for 9.2% of the shift.
[off-topic commentary truncated]

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