[EL] PA POTUS numbers

[Adam Bonin]

I believe, and Kevin Greenberg will jump in if I'm wrong, that the
Philadelphia numbers do not include the absentee vote yet.  It is unique
among the counties in not shipping the absentees to the precincts for
counting on election night; they're all done in a centralized process
instead.

In 2012, the absentee vote added over 12K to Obama's Phila total, and over
9K to his city margin.  Add that again this year, and turnout will be ahead
of 2012.

Adam C. Bonin
The Law Office of Adam C. Bonin
30 South 15th Street
15th Floor
Philadelphia, PA 19102

(267) 242-5014 (c)
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adam at boninlaw.com
http://www.boninlaw.com

On Fri, Nov 25, 2016 at 7:43 PM, Thomas J. Cares <Tom at tomcares.com> wrote:

> I wrote this for Facebook but it might be interesting for this list to
> digest. My source is the PA SoS website as of 14 hours ago. The numbers
> feel weird. I mean Trump supporters may have just turned out better (for
> political reasons), or could it be something else?
>
> I crunched some numbers on Pennsylvania. Interesting stuff. Clinton is
> down 70,010 votes. Obama was up 309,840, over Romney, a shift of 380k.
> Turnout was up 268k. Trump got 252.4k more votes than Romney. Gary Johnson
> got 94k more votes than he received in 2012. Almost triple. Jill Stein
> received 27.8k more than in 2012. More than double. A new minor candidate
> received 21k votes. ...Hillary received 127.4k fewer votes in Pennsylvania,
> than 2012-Obama. The only one to receive fewer than her party did 4 years
> ago.
>
> Just the shift in Philadelphia county, equals half of Trump's statewide
> lead over Hillary. Hillary carried 82.4% of Philadelphia County. Pretty
> good, eh? But 2012-Obama carried it with 85.3. And while statewide turnout
> increased by 268k votes, 6,843 FEWER voters turned out in Philadelphia
> County. ...Hillary led Trump in that county by 34,940 fewer votes than
> Obama led Romney. That is virtually half the 70,010 she is down statewide.
> Of course, Hillary under-performed Obama much worse in the rest of the
> state. Philadelphia County has 12.24% of the state population, while
> accounting for 9.2% of the shift.
> [off-topic commentary truncated]
>
>
>
> --
>
>
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