[EL] ELB News and Commentary 12/11/18

Tue Dec 11 07:40:11 PST 2018

“With Power Grabs in the Midwest, G.O.P. Risks a 2020 Backlash”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102762>
Posted on December 11, 2018 7:37 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102762> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

NYT:<https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/10/us/politics/michigan-wisconsin-republicans-midwest.html?module=inline>

The continuing legislative maneuvers in Michigan and Wisconsin are part of a broader war for power in the Midwest, a politically prized region for both parties — but especially for Republicans, who are trying to dilute Democratic control ahead of bigger battles. The G.O.P., which lost the House in November as well as four key governorships in the Midwest, depends on its gerrymandered districts in the region for a trove of seats in both Congress and state legislatures. Without these safe seats, they would be unlikely to attempt such last-minute tactics.

But now, with incoming Democratic governors set to have veto power over the next round of redistricting following the 2020 census, a handful of states are confronting either court challenges to the existing districts or new, more equitable rules for drawing the next decade of legislative boundaries. In Michigan, voters this year approved an independent redistricting commission, but Republican lawmakers are using the current lame duck session to try to curb the new Democratic secretary of state’s implementation of it.

The Republican efforts could hurt the party’s image with moderate voters in a region that President Trump considers crucial for his 2020 re-election effort, and where his standing has fallen in suburbs that he would need to carry again to win. Yet G.O.P. leaders are determined to push ahead, fearing that their decade-long dominance in the Midwest is coming to an end as newly elected Democrats and the prospect of more competitive districts threaten to shift the balance of power.
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Posted in redistricting<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=6>

“Trump says Cohen’s guilty plea is like the Obama campaign’s civil fine. There’s no comparison, experts say.”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102760>
Posted on December 11, 2018 7:32 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102760> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Fredreka Schouten<https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/10/politics/trump-and-obama-campaign-finance-cases/index.html> for CNN.
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Posted in campaign finance<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, campaigns<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>

“Potent Weapon or Poison Pill? Super PACs Pose Quandary for 2020 Democrats”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102758>
Posted on December 11, 2018 7:24 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102758> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Shane Goldmacher<https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/11/us/politics/democrats-2020-super-pac.html> for the NYT:

It is one of the most potent and feared weapons in the arsenal of modern American politics: the super PAC.

But as three dozen Democrats ponder presidential runs in 2020 and begin to design their campaign infrastructures, some leading names beyond Senator Bernie Sanders are expected to forgo or disavow super PACs — and with it the ability for allies to raise unlimited sums from wealthy backers — in hopes that grass-roots donors and progressive activists would reward them more handsomely in the primary for rejecting such funds.

If she runs, Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts is likely to reject the assistance of a super PAC, according to two people familiar with her thinking. And the former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. revealed in a little-noticed passage in his 2017 book that he would have gone without one if he had run in 2016, making it more difficult for him to backtrack now.

The super PAC question is a politically vexing one. The financial firepower would be alluring to those with a ready network of financiers, such as Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, who is seen as likely to have a super PAC, according to donors, strategists and people close to him. Some allies are already discussing possible super PACs for Senators Kamala Harris of California and Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, the two most Democratic donor-rich states in the nation. But aides to both of them say they are not currently seeking a super PAC.
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Posted in campaign finance<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, campaigns<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>

“Republicans in Wisconsin and Michigan want to weaken incoming Democratic governors. Here’s what’s the usual partisan politics — and what isn’t.”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102756>
Posted on December 11, 2018 7:22 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102756> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Matt Glassman for The Monkey Cage.<https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/12/11/wisconsins-and-michigans-legislatures-are-trying-to-weaken-incoming-governors-should-you-be-worried/?utm_term=.62f6d2c3ad62>
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Posted in Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

“‘A Simple Private Transaction’: Trump Lays Out a Defense in a Campaign-Finance Case”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102754>
Posted on December 10, 2018 6:25 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102754> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Charlie Savage<https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/10/us/politics/trump-campaign-finance-crimes-defense.html> in the NYT:

President Trump defended himself on Monday against prosecutors’ accusation that he directed illegal payments<https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/07/nyregion/michael-cohen-sentence.html?module=inline> ahead of the 2016 election to two women to stay silent about alleged extramarital affairs with him, insisting that the payments were “a simple private transaction” — not election-related spending subject to campaign-finance laws.

In a pair<https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1072095127894667265> of early-morning tweets<https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1072098604599394305>, Mr. Trump also maintained that even if the hush-money payments did count as campaign transactions, any failure to obey federal election regulations should be considered only a civil offense, not a criminal one. And he blamed his former lawyer, Michael D. Cohen, who has admitted to helping arrange the payments. “Lawyer’s liability if he made a mistake, not me,” Mr. Trump wrote.

Mr. Trump is effectively an unindicted co-conspirator in Mr. Cohen’s campaign-finance crimes, but his legal exposure and political liability turn on several factors, including whether a president can be charged with a crime — not while he is in office, the Justice Department has concluded<https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/22/us/politics/can-president-be-indicted-kenneth-starr-memo.html?module=inline> — and the political mood in Congress. Republican Senate leaders were nearly unanimous on Monday in dismissing any new peril facing the president.

But Mr. Trump’s plea of ignorance has flaws, said Richard L. Hasen<http://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/>, a professor of election law at the University of California, Irvine. While the Obama and McCain campaigns were fined for failing to swiftly report certain expenditures, he said, they had filed corrected reports about the mistakes to federal elections officials and then paid the fines, rather than trying to hide the payments for more than a year.

Mr. Trump “looks pretty guilty from what we see so far, but whether he would actually face any liability is a huge question,” Mr. Hasen said.
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Posted in campaign finance<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, campaigns<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>, chicanery<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>

“Thousands Of Mailed Ballots In Florida Were Not Counted”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102752>
Posted on December 10, 2018 5:36 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102752> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

AP:<https://miami.cbslocal.com/2018/12/10/thousands-of-mailed-ballots-in-florida-were-not-counted/>

Florida officials say thousands of mailed ballots were not counted because they were delivered too late to state election offices.

The Department of State last week informed a federal judge that 6,670 ballots were mailed ahead of the Nov. 6 election but were not counted because they were not received by Election Day.

The tally prepared by state officials includes totals from 65 of Florida’s 67 counties.

Three statewide Florida races, including the contest for governor, went to recounts because the margins were so close.
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Posted in election administration<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>

Interview with Me on PBS News Hour: “Why Cohen’s hush money places the president at legal risk”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102750>
Posted on December 10, 2018 4:58 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102750> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

I spoke to the PBS News Hour<https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/why-cohens-hush-money-places-the-president-at-legal-risk> about the President and the alleged campaign finance violations.
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Posted in campaign finance<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, campaigns<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>

Michigan Junior Scholars Conference<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102748>
Posted on December 10, 2018 4:32 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102748> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Announcement via email:

The University of Michigan Law School invites junior scholars to attend the 5th Annual Junior Scholars Conference, which will be held on April 26-27, 2019 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. The conference provides junior scholars with a platform to present and discuss their work with peers, and to receive detailed feedback from senior members of the Michigan Law faculty. The Conference aims to promote fruitful collaboration between participants and to encourage their integration into a community of legal scholars. The Junior Scholars Conference is intended for academics in both law and related disciplines. Applications from postdoctoral researchers, lecturers, fellows, SJD/PhD candidates, and assistant professors (pre-tenure) who have not held an academic position for more than four years, are welcomed.

Applications are due by January 12, 2019.

Further information can be found at the Conference website: https://www.law.umich.edu/events/junior-scholars-conference/Pages/2019conference.aspx

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Posted in Uncategorized<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1>

“Vote-by-mail scandal in North Carolina exposes Florida’s lax laws”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102746>
Posted on December 10, 2018 4:30 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102746> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

Tampa Bay Times:<https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/12/10/vote-by-mail-scandal-in-north-carolina-exposes-floridas-lax-laws/>
A contested election. Accusations of election fraud. Widespread attention from the national media.
No, it’s not in Florida, which has had its fair share of election hijinks over the decades.
It’s in North Carolina, where a Congressional race might get a rare election do-over after allegations surfaced that a political operative helped the Republican<https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/08/us/politics/north-carolina-election-fraud-dowless.html> candidate win by illegally collecting absentee, or vote-by-mail, ballots.
The case highlights a notable difference between the two states, however: North Carolina has much tougher laws than Florida when it comes to voting by mail.
Although Florida, like many states, has imposed strong voter ID laws for casting a ballot at a polling place, it’s done virtually nothing to stop fraud in the vote-by-mail process.
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Posted in election administration<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>

“Trump’s ‘Obama Did It Too’ Legal Defense Does Not Hold an Ounce of Water”<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102744>
Posted on December 10, 2018 11:45 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=102744> by Rick Hasen<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>

I have written this piece for Slate. It begins<https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/12/trump-obama-campaign-finance-crime-tweets.html>:

President Donald Trump may never face a criminal penalty or impeachment proceedings for violating campaign finance laws in alleged conspiracy with his former personal lawyer, Michael Cohen. But on Monday, he tweeted an apparent legal defense for the apparent criminal violations that is beyond unconvincing. He argued that hidden hush-money payments to his mistresses in the weeks before the 2016 election were merely “simple private transaction<https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1072095127894667265>[s]” rather than illegal campaign contributions, or that his problems amount to no more than his lawyer making a paperwork mistake. The president went on to compare Cohen’s actions to the reporting errors<https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1072098604599394305> to which the Obama campaign admitted and ultimately dealt with through the payment of civil fines, the apparent point being that even if Trump did anything wrong, he should only be on the hook for civil penalties. In reality, Trump’s conduct and applicable campaign finance rules suggest that he would already be in serious legal jeopardy if he were not the sitting president.
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Posted in campaign finance<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, chicanery<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>

--
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-8000
949.824.3072 - office
rhasen at law.uci.edu<mailto:rhasen at law.uci.edu>
http://www.law.uci.edu/faculty/full-time/hasen/
http://electionlawblog.org<http://electionlawblog.org/>
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