[EL] CA Republicans MIGHT (or might not) be outnumbered by "No Party Preference"

Wed May 30 20:29:30 PDT 2018

I suspect the increase in unaffiliated voters, no matter what you call them, has much to do with the artificial nature of registration that is so popular today as opposed to the old days of voluntary registration. One of the reasons voter turnout percentages are shrinking is because we artificially increase the denominator with people who have little or no real interest in voting. They stand in line at the motor vehicles office, or they are registered in the high school classes, or in some other similar way. But in the days when they would have to stop at a voter registration table in a mall, those who registered were committing a conscious act and probably were more informed than those who are most likely to buy into the argument that there’s no difference between Democrats and Republicans because that’s easier than thinking about the actual differences. In my experience, these people, if they vote at all, are very likely to vote much like their neighbors do – independents in Democratic neighborhoods and communities will vote for Democrats, etc. 

In short, we are going out of our way to register people who have little or no interest in or informed opinion of the parties and the process, and after they are registered and very unlikely to be regular voters.

Larry

From: Law-election <law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu> On Behalf Of Paul Gronke
Sent: Wednesday, May 30, 2018 5:48 PM
Cc: edu law-election at uci. edu law-election at uci. <law-election at uci.edu>
Subject: Re: [EL] CA Republicans MIGHT (or might not) be outnumbered by "No Party Preference"

Rob

Exactly. They are by definition “unaffiliated,” but Vladimir is right to remind us that doesn’t mean they are truly “independent” and don’t “lean” toward one or another political party, or vote in a predictable partisan fashion.

“Some would suggest…” Hmmm……...

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On May 30, 2018, at 5:31 PM, Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org <mailto:rr at fairvote.org> > wrote:

It does mean that in some states like Oregon they can't vote in partisan primaries. So not expressing affiliation has a great impact on how they get to define the parties -- and yet still patterns not to affiliate.

Some would suggest that's a rather good reason to offer voters more choices in November and having electoral systems designed to accommodate that energy and increase accountability for major parties.

Rob

On Wed, May 30, 2018 at 8:28 PM, Kogan, Vladimir <kogan.18 at osu.edu <mailto:kogan.18 at osu.edu> > wrote:

We should be careful about reading too much into the rise of so-called “unaffiliated” voters. Most of them are in fact affiliated, and are just unwilling to self-identify as such for social desirability reasons.

Here is a recent book by Samara Klar <https://sgpp.arizona.edu/user/samara-klar>  and Yanna Krupnikov <https://www.yannakrupnikov.com/>  on this very topic: https://www.amazon.com/Independent-Politics-American-Political-Inaction-ebook/dp/B01B1G84CM

“The number of independent voters in America increases each year, yet they remain misunderstood by both media and academics. Media describe independents as pivotal for electoral outcomes. Political scientists conclude that independents are merely 'undercover partisans': people who secretly hold partisan beliefs and are thus politically inconsequential. Both the pundits and the political scientists are wrong, argue the authors. They show that many Americans are becoming embarrassed of their political party. They deny to pollsters, party activists, friends, and even themselves, their true partisanship, instead choosing to go 'undercover' as independents. Independent Politics demonstrates that people intentionally mask their partisan preferences in social situations. Most importantly, breaking with decades of previous research, it argues that independents are highly politically consequential. The same motivations that lead people to identify as independent also diminish their willingness to engage in the types of political action that sustain the grassroots movements of American politics.”

I highly recommend the book!

Vlad

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