[EL] UK election and what "mandates" mean in U.S.-style plurality voting system

Fri Dec 13 08:03:27 PST 2019

Couple of thoughts in response to Rob's post:

(1) Rob's hypothesis about where the Labour vote went appears true only for heavy Remain seats. In Leave seats, the vote shifted far more to Leave parties. The BBC has a nice chart showing that defections from Labour were greatest in strong leave seats:

> 60% Leave
LAB -10.4%
BRX + 3.8%
CON + 6.1%
LD +2.6%
GRN +1%

> 60% Remain
LAB -6.4%
BRX +1.0%
CON -2.9%
LD +4.7%
CN +1.2%

If you look closely at individual constituency results, it seems very likely that a lot of the shift away from Labour went to Brexit Party as well as the Conservatives in many seats.

In Vale of Clwyd, for example, here are the shifts that delivered the seat to the Tories:

LAB -8.7
BRX +4.0
CON + 2.3
LD +2.2
PC +0.2

As you can see, the 8.7% drop in Labour support was accompanied by a shift of 6.3% up for Leave parties and 2.4% for Remain parties.

(2) The election was about more than just Brexit. Labour also did poorly because (a) Jeremy Corbyn (think Bernie Sanders but far more left wing and far less personable) had abysmal approval ratings, and (b) Labour adopted a very left-wing manifesto that scared away a lot of people. It was reminiscent of the 1983 manifesto aptly labelled "the longest suicide note in history."

(3) The election did result in what single-member plurality systems are designed to produce in that the UK now has a majority government that voters can hold accountable. In this sense, the system worked as intended.

(4) The electoral system, however, did exacerbate regional differences. The SNP won the 81% of Scottish seats on 45% of the vote. The Tories won the 65% of English seats on 47% of the vote. Though the Tories made major gains in Wales, Labour still won 55% of the seats on 41% of the vote. The Union will clearly be under stress though Scotland now has no way of demanding another vote on independence notwithstanding the SNP's successes. Who would have ever thought Labour would be reduced to one seat in Scotland!

(5) Voters acted as expected in that the LD and Green shares of the vote got squeezed over the campaign due to tactical voting even though Rob is correct that the Tories and Brexit did a better job of coordination. Brexit also appeared to be a good parking spot for Labour leave voters who didn't want to vote Labour or Tory.

(6) In Northern Ireland, the voters sent a nice signal to both the DUP and to Sinn Fein to get it together and make devolution work as the two leading parties both saw marked drops in their vote share to the benefit of Alliance and SDLP primarily.

(7) The desire of Brits to change the electoral system appears low. They voted down AV, which would have been a good start to better reflecting the overall will and reduced tactical voting, though also aided third parties.

On Fri, Dec 13, 2019 at 7:21 AM Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org<mailto:rr at fairvote.org>> wrote:
Hi, Folks,

The UK elections are a fascinating example of how a plurality voting system is not the same thing as a majoritarian voting system. Here was my tweet about it just now, linking to my piece last month anticipating yesterday's results.

I'll note that a ranked choice voting district by district might not have changed the outcome, as geographic dispersion of votes matters as well as winning districts by majorities rather than pluralities. But if you add up the parties associated with Remain, it's a clear majority, with the Conservative Party (43.6%), its Northern Ireland allies and Brexit party (2.0%) combining for about 46% of the vote.

Rob

<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__twitter.com_Rob-5FRichie&d=DwMFaQ&c=U0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q&r=2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg&m=tpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII&s=raec4MVaQVl_qBCQa_91BzoT233aLt-8qw-8WO01Vy8&e=>
Rob Richie
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British "mandate" for Brexit comes when slim majority of voters want to "remain." Most Labour voter defections went to pro-remain parties, not pro-Brexit voters, yet a pro-Brexit party now can move forward. See my piece last month anticipating results

https://www.fairvote.org/brexit_plurality_rules_and_the_united_kingdom_s_broken_democracy<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.fairvote.org_brexit-5Fplurality-5Frules-5Fand-5Fthe-5Funited-5Fkingdom-5Fs-5Fbroken-5Fdemocracy&d=DwMFaQ&c=U0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q&r=2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg&m=tpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII&s=iZMPuJ0k0F2hbfwAztc9YHXITdZPiAcc93jX1rZo0ew&e=>

Brexit, Plurality Rules, and the United Kingdom’s Broken Democracy
ROB RICHIE
NOVEMBER 12, 2019

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Share on Twitter<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__twitter.com_share-3Ftext-3DBrexit-2C-2520Plurality-2520Rules-2C-2520and-2520the-2520United-2520Kingdom-25E2-2580-2599s-2520Broken-2520Democracy-26url-3Dhttp-3A__www.fairvote.org_brexit-5Fplurality-5Frules-5Fand-5Fthe-5Funited-5Fkingdom-5Fs-5Fbroken-5Fdemocracy&d=DwMFaQ&c=U0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q&r=2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg&m=tpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII&s=P93uZTgv9AVnTB5VpUkQM5epiW76wRd6e6UFkjfndUo&e=>
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Rarely has a policy debate so divided and paralyzed a nation as the issue of “Brexit” in the United Kingdom. In a 2016 national referendum, British voters narrowly approved leaving the European Union. The aftermath and turmoil ever since provides a case study in how such divisions are poorly handled by a plurality, single-choice voting system -- yes, the same voting method used by Americans to elect their members of Congress, governors and presidential electors.

One problem is being able to win a majority of seats without trying to win a majority of votes. Since 1980,<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__en.wikipedia.org_wiki_United-5FKingdom-5Fgeneral-5Felections-5Foverview&d=DwMFaQ&c=U0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q&r=2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg&m=tpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII&s=z9LuO6DQ9kugeaPDohObcUuoGXQtPVmcJDevnjq0sic&e=> no British political party has won even 44% of the national vote. In 2015, for example, David Cameron’s Conservative Party won a majority of seats with only 36.9% of the votes<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__en.wikipedia.org_wiki_2015-5FUnited-5FKingdom-5Fgeneral-5Felection&d=DwMFaQ&c=U0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q&r=2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg&m=tpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII&s=N91GPPAg8EQfEJfgV-Kvx93wP027Va9kxpPlmfSdA_w&e=>. His plurality victory was reminiscent of Bill Clinton winning a huge majority of electoral votes in 1992 with only 43% of the vote<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__en.wikipedia.org_wiki_1992-5FUnited-5FStates-5Fpresidential-5Felection&d=DwMFaQ&c=U0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q&r=2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg&m=tpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII&s=PpAmkzTYQHAmTYToK6RERzAaHQQQ16LTEjAApGdBSbQ&e=> (and only a single state with more than 50%) and, more recently, Justin Trudeau of Canada's Liberal Party maintaining power with only 33% of the vote, less than the Conservative Party.<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__en.wikipedia.org_wiki_2019-5FCanadian-5Ffederal-5Felection&d=DwMFaQ&c=U0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q&r=2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg&m=tpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII&s=tpnuo3ViLmTBUkLH3xkKNUzYLQ9Ns-Xa-sTMCGw0WQw&e=>

Now, Boris Johnson leads the Conservatives, and his bid is all about playing to the “leave” Brexit base rather than a majority of Britons. “Remain” now consistently leads in polls<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__whatukthinks.org_eu_questions_if-2Dthere-2Dwas-2Da-2Dreferendum-2Don-2Dbritains-2Dmembership-2Dof-2Dthe-2Deu-2Dhow-2Dwould-2Dyou-2Dvote-2D2_&d=DwMFaQ&c=U0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q&r=2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg&m=tpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII&s=qhEqixi5V2d7YtGDMG8YUSaRxYF35-FmonAthvpmtRg&e=>, but its backers are divided among several parties. Johnson received a boost this week when Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party announced<https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.bbc.com_news_election-2D2019-2D50387254&d=DwMFaQ&c=U0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q&r=2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg&m=tpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII&s=H-rDTKgE97GEbbmVM8YoricVhr3gOO82CfroMDkp_mY&e=> it would try to avoid splitting the “leave” vote by not running candidates in any seats now held by Conservatives. Farage is a long-time critic of plurality voting, and his party earlier this year joined a cross-party reform coalition <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.bbc.com_news_uk-2Dpolitics-2D48847542&d=DwMFaQ&c=U0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q&r=2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg&m=tpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII&s=MMAaYBGxXnAguNMLi6bwH2qNQqKWxrH-1zjJxD7VXcg&e=> in support of a proportional voting system. But Farage also knows that, in a plurality system, a more united “leave” vote provides the best chance for Johnson to turn 40% of the vote into a majority of seats.

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