[EL] UK election and what "mandates" mean in U.S.-style plurality voting system
Rob Richie
rr at fairvote.org
Fri Dec 13 08:39:58 PST 2019
Thanks for this thoughtful note exploring this question more deeply, David.
I'll flag this good piece analyzing the vote from John Curtice
<https://www.bbc.com/news/election-2019-50774061>for more on the complexity
of the vote shifts -- and realizing that pre-election polls showed a
substantial share of voters were not going to vote for their true party of
choice in a desperate bid to guess how to vote most effectively.
It is interesting to mull what the UK parliament would look like with a
German-type mixed member system that would have provided proportionality to
parties with 5% national support and/or geographic concentrations of
support able to win districts. The combined number of seats for Labour and
the Liberal Democrats would have been nearly exactly the same as the
Conservatives (43.7% or Labour-Lib Dems and 43.6% for Conservatives), with
nearly all other seats going to the Scottish National Party due to its
regional concentration of support (and some seats to the Northern Irish
parties). Of course the Greens and Brexit Party might have done better and
perhaps won over 5%, with the Greens yesterday getting only 2.7% and the
Brexit Party winning only 2.0% despite doing much better last spring in the
European Parliamentary elections held with a proportional system (where a
majority of seats went to parties clearly against a hard Brexit).
It wouldn't have given a "mandate" to any one party, as Johnson allegedly
has with his 46% coalition vote share, but it would have created the
conditions where some sensible middle ground might have been negotiated --
a middle ground that this piece in October by Curtice
<https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-50043549> defines well. Some real
changes with the EU, but not a hard Brexit. Maybe Johnson will get to some
kind of comparable deal, but we'll see. The hubris that comes from false
mandates is what led David Cameron to create the Brexit referendum in the
first place.
Rob
On Fri, Dec 13, 2019 at 11:03 AM David Lublin <dlublin at american.edu> wrote:
> Couple of thoughts in response to Rob's post:
>
> (1) Rob's hypothesis about where the Labour vote went appears true only
> for heavy Remain seats. In Leave seats, the vote shifted far more to Leave
> parties. The BBC has a nice chart showing that defections from Labour were
> greatest in strong leave seats:
>
> > 60% Leave
> LAB -10.4%
> BRX + 3.8%
> CON + 6.1%
> LD +2.6%
> GRN +1%
>
> > 60% Remain
> LAB -6.4%
> BRX +1.0%
> CON -2.9%
> LD +4.7%
> CN +1.2%
>
> If you look closely at individual constituency results, it seems very
> likely that a lot of the shift away from Labour went to Brexit Party as
> well as the Conservatives in many seats.
>
> In Vale of Clwyd, for example, here are the shifts that delivered the seat
> to the Tories:
>
> LAB -8.7
> BRX +4.0
> CON + 2.3
> LD +2.2
> PC +0.2
>
> As you can see, the 8.7% drop in Labour support was accompanied by a shift
> of 6.3% up for Leave parties and 2.4% for Remain parties.
>
> (2) The election was about more than just Brexit. Labour also did poorly
> because (a) Jeremy Corbyn (think Bernie Sanders but far more left wing and
> far less personable) had abysmal approval ratings, and (b) Labour adopted a
> very left-wing manifesto that scared away a lot of people. It was
> reminiscent of the 1983 manifesto aptly labelled "the longest suicide note
> in history."
>
> (3) The election did result in what single-member plurality systems are
> designed to produce in that the UK now has a majority government that
> voters can hold accountable. In this sense, the system worked as intended.
>
> (4) The electoral system, however, did exacerbate regional differences.
> The SNP won the 81% of Scottish seats on 45% of the vote. The Tories won
> the 65% of English seats on 47% of the vote. Though the Tories made major
> gains in Wales, Labour still won 55% of the seats on 41% of the vote. The
> Union will clearly be under stress though Scotland now has no way of
> demanding another vote on independence notwithstanding the SNP's successes.
> Who would have ever thought Labour would be reduced to one seat in Scotland!
>
> (5) Voters acted as expected in that the LD and Green shares of the vote
> got squeezed over the campaign due to tactical voting even though Rob is
> correct that the Tories and Brexit did a better job of coordination. Brexit
> also appeared to be a good parking spot for Labour leave voters who didn't
> want to vote Labour or Tory.
>
> (6) In Northern Ireland, the voters sent a nice signal to both the DUP and
> to Sinn Fein to get it together and make devolution work as the two leading
> parties both saw marked drops in their vote share to the benefit of
> Alliance and SDLP primarily.
>
> (7) The desire of Brits to change the electoral system appears low. They
> voted down AV, which would have been a good start to better reflecting the
> overall will and reduced tactical voting, though also aided third parties.
>
>
>
>
> On Fri, Dec 13, 2019 at 7:21 AM Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org> wrote:
>
>> Hi, Folks,
>>
>> The UK elections are a fascinating example of how a plurality voting
>> system is not the same thing as a majoritarian voting system. Here was my
>> tweet about it just now, linking to my piece last month anticipating
>> yesterday's results.
>>
>> I'll note that a ranked choice voting district by district might not have
>> changed the outcome, as geographic dispersion of votes matters as well as
>> winning districts by majorities rather than pluralities. But if you add up
>> the parties associated with Remain, it's a clear majority, with the
>> Conservative Party (43.6%), its Northern Ireland allies and Brexit party
>> (2.0%) combining for about 46% of the vote.
>>
>> Rob
>>
>>
>> Rob Richie
>> @Rob_Richie
>>
>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__twitter.com_Rob-5FRichie&d=DwMFaQ&c=U0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q&r=2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg&m=tpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII&s=raec4MVaQVl_qBCQa_91BzoT233aLt-8qw-8WO01Vy8&e=>
>> ·
>> 2m
>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__twitter.com_Rob-5FRichie_status_1205460187362017281&d=DwMFaQ&c=U0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q&r=2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg&m=tpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII&s=wEy_D9_CB4G1WAeU_SSZ53JjYkYrGDe76PMEdWLiFxI&e=>
>> British "mandate" for Brexit comes when slim majority of voters want to
>> "remain." Most Labour voter defections went to pro-remain parties, not
>> pro-Brexit voters, yet a pro-Brexit party now can move forward. See my
>> piece last month anticipating results
>>
>>
>>
>> https://www.fairvote.org/brexit_plurality_rules_and_the_united_kingdom_s_broken_democracy
>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.fairvote.org_brexit-5Fplurality-5Frules-5Fand-5Fthe-5Funited-5Fkingdom-5Fs-5Fbroken-5Fdemocracy&d=DwMFaQ&c=U0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q&r=2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg&m=tpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII&s=iZMPuJ0k0F2hbfwAztc9YHXITdZPiAcc93jX1rZo0ew&e=>
>>
>> Brexit, Plurality Rules, and the United Kingdom’s Broken Democracy
>> ROB RICHIE
>> NOVEMBER 12, 2019
>>
>>
>> -
>> Share on Twitter
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>>
>> Rarely has a policy debate so divided and paralyzed a nation as the issue
>> of “Brexit” in the United Kingdom. In a 2016 national referendum, British
>> voters narrowly approved leaving the European Union. The aftermath and
>> turmoil ever since provides a case study in how such divisions are poorly
>> handled by a plurality, single-choice voting system -- yes, the same voting
>> method used by Americans to elect their members of Congress, governors and
>> presidential electors.
>>
>> One problem is being able to win a majority of seats without trying to
>> win a majority of votes. Since 1980,
>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__en.wikipedia.org_wiki_United-5FKingdom-5Fgeneral-5Felections-5Foverview&d=DwMFaQ&c=U0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q&r=2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg&m=tpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII&s=z9LuO6DQ9kugeaPDohObcUuoGXQtPVmcJDevnjq0sic&e=> no
>> British political party has won even 44% of the national vote. In 2015, for
>> example, David Cameron’s Conservative Party won a majority of seats with
>> only 36.9% of the votes
>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__en.wikipedia.org_wiki_2015-5FUnited-5FKingdom-5Fgeneral-5Felection&d=DwMFaQ&c=U0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q&r=2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg&m=tpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII&s=N91GPPAg8EQfEJfgV-Kvx93wP027Va9kxpPlmfSdA_w&e=>.
>> His plurality victory was reminiscent of Bill Clinton winning a huge
>> majority of electoral votes in 1992 with only 43% of the vote
>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__en.wikipedia.org_wiki_1992-5FUnited-5FStates-5Fpresidential-5Felection&d=DwMFaQ&c=U0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q&r=2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg&m=tpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII&s=PpAmkzTYQHAmTYToK6RERzAaHQQQ16LTEjAApGdBSbQ&e=> (and
>> only a single state with more than 50%) and, more recently, Justin
>> Trudeau of Canada's Liberal Party maintaining power with only 33% of the
>> vote, less than the Conservative Party.
>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__en.wikipedia.org_wiki_2019-5FCanadian-5Ffederal-5Felection&d=DwMFaQ&c=U0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q&r=2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg&m=tpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII&s=tpnuo3ViLmTBUkLH3xkKNUzYLQ9Ns-Xa-sTMCGw0WQw&e=>
>>
>> Now, Boris Johnson leads the Conservatives, and his bid is all about
>> playing to the “leave” Brexit base rather than a majority of Britons. “Remain”
>> now consistently leads in polls
>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__whatukthinks.org_eu_questions_if-2Dthere-2Dwas-2Da-2Dreferendum-2Don-2Dbritains-2Dmembership-2Dof-2Dthe-2Deu-2Dhow-2Dwould-2Dyou-2Dvote-2D2_&d=DwMFaQ&c=U0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q&r=2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg&m=tpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII&s=qhEqixi5V2d7YtGDMG8YUSaRxYF35-FmonAthvpmtRg&e=>,
>> but its backers are divided among several parties. Johnson received a boost
>> this week when Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party announced
>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.bbc.com_news_election-2D2019-2D50387254&d=DwMFaQ&c=U0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q&r=2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg&m=tpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII&s=H-rDTKgE97GEbbmVM8YoricVhr3gOO82CfroMDkp_mY&e=> it
>> would try to avoid splitting the “leave” vote by not running candidates in
>> any seats now held by Conservatives. Farage is a long-time critic of
>> plurality voting, and his party earlier this year joined a cross-party
>> reform coalition
>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=https-3A__www.bbc.com_news_uk-2Dpolitics-2D48847542&d=DwMFaQ&c=U0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q&r=2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg&m=tpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII&s=MMAaYBGxXnAguNMLi6bwH2qNQqKWxrH-1zjJxD7VXcg&e=>in
>> support of a proportional voting system. But Farage also knows that, in a
>> plurality system, a more united “leave” vote provides the best chance for
>> Johnson to turn 40% of the vote into a majority of seats.
>>
>> --
>> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
>> Rob Richie
>> President and CEO, FairVote
>> 6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 240
>> Takoma Park, MD 20912
>> rr at fairvote.org (301) 270-4616 http://www.fairvote.org
>> <https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.fairvote.org&d=DwMFaQ&c=U0G0XJAMhEk_X0GAGzCL7Q&r=2fMgMunsCtJpikIZXRvVAXXnXpXnW1DdeOa9_DBJVAg&m=tpLV82qiNMRaEtDlL9uW0NFCsq_zjvmsWj-VG9BOSII&s=W9kaWW_vUr4T77cU5L9U61eUu1v_KXv2z9fUoRUnD80&e=>
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>
>
> --
> David Lublin
> Professor of Government
> School of Public Affairs
> American University
> 4400 Massachusetts Ave.
> Washington, D.C. 20016
> http://davidlublin.com/
>
--
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Rob Richie
President and CEO, FairVote
6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 240
Takoma Park, MD 20912
rr at fairvote.org (301) 270-4616 http://www.fairvote.org
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