[EL] ELB News and Commentary 3/7/19

[Levitt, Justin]

"The Geography of Partisan Prejudice"<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=104014>
Posted on March 7, 2019 11:50 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=104014> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

A fascinating mapping<https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/03/us-counties-vary-their-degree-partisan-prejudice/583072/> of estimates of affective polarization (how Americans feel about members of the opposing major party).  The polling question isn't new, but I think that mapping the results onto counties by their demographic composition might be.

(Note: this doesn't mean that people in Florida or South Carolina or Massachusetts are actuallyirreconcilably prejudiced against opposing party members, or that folks in New York, North Carolina, or Nebraska aren't - just that counties in those states share demographic traits correlated to the demographics of folks who do or don't share high levels of partisan prejudice.)
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Posted in political parties<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=25>, political polarization<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=68>

"Congressional Tenure Steadily Increasing"<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=104012>
Posted on March 7, 2019 11:49 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=104012> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

On the occasion<https://theweek.com/speedreads/827636/alaska-rep-don-young-now-longestserving-house-republican-ever> of Don Young's becoming the longest-serving Republican in the history of the House, U.S. Term Limits reviews the historical tenure patterns<https://www.termlimits.com/new-research-congressional-tenure-steadily-increasing/> for members of Congress.
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Posted in term limits<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=65>

"Republicans Say Democrats' Election Reform Bill Doesn't Address Ballot Harvesting"<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=104010>
Posted on March 7, 2019 11:49 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=104010> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

McConnell picks on one thing missing<https://www.npr.org/2019/03/06/700873523/republicans-say-democrats-election-reform-bill-doesnt-tackle-ballot-harvesting-i> from H.R. 1.

More on third parties collecting and returning absentee ballots, in California, here<https://www.pe.com/2019/03/06/is-ballot-harvesting-legal-in-california-yes-and-that-worries-some-republicans/>.
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Posted in absentee ballots<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=53>, election administration<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>

Chuck Schumer on his voting rights priorities<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=104008>
Posted on March 7, 2019 11:49 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=104008> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

He picks his favorite parts<https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2019/03/chuck-schumer-q-voting-rights-and-2020-election/584329/> of H.R. 1.
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Posted in election administration<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>

"House Democrats Will Vote on Sweeping Anti-Corruption Legislation. Here's What's in It."<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=104006>
Posted on March 7, 2019 11:48 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=104006> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

The New York Times runs down<https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/07/us/politics/house-democrats-anti-corruption-bill.html> a brief summary of H.R. 1.
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Posted in election administration<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>

"Voting Can Be Devastating for Iowa Felons, AP Review Finds"<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=104004>
Posted on March 7, 2019 11:48 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=104004> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

An AP piece<https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/iowa/articles/2019-03-07/voting-can-be-devastating-for-iowa-felons-ap-review-finds> on the administrative hurdles of rights restoration, and the consequences for those who may not know that they're voting while ineligible.  The cover photo of the lead subject of the story may challenge a lot of preconceptions.
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Posted in felon voting<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=66>

Pushback to the 2018 Missouri redistricting citizens' initiative<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=104002>
Posted on March 7, 2019 11:47 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=104002> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

The Springfield News-Leader reports<https://www.news-leader.com/story/news/politics/2019/03/06/republicans-look-roll-back-new-redistricting-rules/3079369002/>:

Last fall, Missouri voters approved a one-of-a-kind plan to root out partisan gerrymandering with 62 percent of the vote.

Republicans unhappy with the changes are now trying to roll them back.

Five GOP lawmakers, including Senate President Pro Tem Dave Schatz, R-Sullivan, are proposing new modifications to the state constitution that would downplay or eliminate the new standards for "partisan fairness" and "competitiveness" when drawing legislative districts.
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Posted in political parties<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=25>, redistricting<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=6>

Federal Prosecutors Agree to Drop Charges Against Rep. Schock<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=104000>
Posted on March 7, 2019 11:46 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=104000> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

A deferred prosecution agreement<https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-aaron-schock-plea-agreement-20190306-htmlstory.html> says that charges<https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3216932-Schock-Indictment-1.html> (including tax fraud, wire fraud, and theft of funds based on misappropriation of Congressional and campaign funds for personal use) will be dropped against Rep. Aaron Schock if he repays $68,000 and pays his taxes.

Repentance in 2019<https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-met-ex-congressman-aaron-schock-guilty-20190306-story.html>:

"I do feel like I've been wronged in this process by a prosecutor who saw me as his ticket to stardom and who was allowed to go unchecked for many years at great expense to me personally, my family and friends, and, yes, the taxpayers," Schock said. "I think it's unfortunate that he has not been held to account, and I think the question it begs is how did this go on for so long?"
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Posted in campaign finance<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, chicanery<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>

ShouldTrumpRun.com<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=103998>
Posted on March 7, 2019 11:45 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=103998> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

Ciara Torres-Spelliscy digs into<https://www.brennancenter.org/blog/what-trump-should-have-learned-his-aborted-2012-presidential-run> what testing the waters in 2011 might have taught the President about corporate contributions and campaign finance law.
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Posted in campaign finance<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>

"Michael Cohen sues Trump Organization for legal fees resulting from Mueller probe, porn star lawsuit"<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=103996>
Posted on March 7, 2019 11:45 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=103996> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

This ought to be fascinating<https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/07/michael-cohen-sues-trump-organization-in-new-york-top-court.html>.  Not least because if it goes anywhere, it may actually shed some light on what Cohen and the Trump Organization actually thought was legal representation and what was not.  There's been an awful lot of haziness there.

(PS: don't pay attention to the URL link's content.  Confusing generations of law students, New York's "Supreme Court" is its trial court, not its top court.)
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Posted in campaign finance<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>, chicanery<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>

"Political competition is moderating Texas Republicans"<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=103994>
Posted on March 7, 2019 11:45 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=103994> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

Behind a paywall, the Economist reviews<https://www.economist.com/united-states/2019/03/09/political-competition-is-moderating-texas-republicans> an apparent shift in Texas legislators' priorities.
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Posted in political parties<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=25>, political polarization<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=68>

DOJ Files Brief in SCOTUS Census Case<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=103991>
Posted on March 7, 2019 12:41 am<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=103991> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

Here's the Government's brief<https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/18/18-966/91015/20190306200050307_18-966tsUnitedStates.pdf> in the SCOTUS case over the inclusion of a citizenship question in the decennial enumeration.

I expected the arguments about speculative standing, about the deferential APA review, and about the degree of discretion ostensibly committed to the Secretary of Commerce.

But the substantive argument (p. 32-34) encapsulated by the following (p.14) is willfully obtuse:

The [district] court's "most significant" reason for overruling the Secretary's policy choice was its [illogical] conclusion that citizenship data in federal administrative records is somehow more complete and accurate than that same data plus data from the census.

It's only illogical to conclude that A is more than A+B if you ignore the evidence that B is a net negative, undermining the value of A as well - like everything the career folks at the Census Bureau had been saying for years. It's not crazy to think that you'd make a house more sturdy by reinforcing the walls than by reinforcing the walls and tunnelling under the ground floor.
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Posted in Supreme Court<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>

"Trump threatens to block networks from hosting debates after Dems reject Fox" (in primaries)<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=103989>
Posted on March 6, 2019 8:08 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=103989> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

Sigh<https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/432961-trump-threatens-to-block-networks-from-hosting-debates-after-dems>.
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Posted in campaigns<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=59>, political parties<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=25>

"Ahead of court ruling, Census Bureau seeks citizenship data"<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=103987>
Posted on March 6, 2019 6:14 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=103987> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

The AP has more<https://apnews.com/0f33f3454d7f4fd78803455d4da672c6> on the latest at the Census Bureau.

I think this is an effort to gather the administrative data that Census employees said would be more effective at assessing statistical citizenship rates, with fewer downsides for public distrust, than actually asking the question on the decennial enumeration (which advice Sec. Ross promptly discarded).
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Posted in redistricting<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=6>, Supreme Court<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>

"Second Judge Blocks Trump Administration's Census Citizenship Question Plans"<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=103984>
Posted on March 6, 2019 3:09 pm<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=103984> by Justin Levitt<https://electionlawblog.org/?author=4>

Big (and voluminous) news<https://www.npr.org/2019/03/06/698886346/second-judge-blocks-trump-administrations-census-citizenship-question-plans> from California: in a 126-page opinion<https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/5760836/March-6-2019-Opinion-by-U-S-District-Judge.pdf>, Judge Seeborg has enjoined the inclusion of a question regarding citizenship on the 2020 census.

The decision follows on Judge Furman's opinion<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=103182> out of New York, but is more expansive: the California decision includes not just a finding on the claim that Commerce's process violated the Administrative Procedure Act, but also that adding the question would substantively distort the conduct of the Census, and thereby violates the Enumeration Clause.  That latter finding is not (yet, technically) the subject of Supreme Court review when it hears the appeal from New York on April 23<https://electionlawblog.org/?p=103725>.

I've not been shy<https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3250265> about my own view of the process that got the citizenship question onto the decennial census, its likely impact, the pretextual excuse for the decision, or the more plausible reasons for the whole enterprise.
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Posted in chicanery<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=12>, redistricting<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=6>, Supreme Court<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>, The Voting Wars<https://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>

--
Justin Levitt  (he/him/his)
Associate Dean for Research
Professor of Law and Gerald T. McLaughlin Fellow
Loyola Law School, Los Angeles
919 Albany St., LA, CA 90015
213-736-7417
@_justinlevitt_

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