[EL] what if the Census is not defensibly accurate?

Mon Aug 3 20:25:30 PDT 2020

Official response rate data by city, county, and congressional district are
available here:  https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html
California also has a map showing response rates by Census Tract:
https://census.ca.gov/california-self-response-rate-map/

- Doug

Douglas Johnson
National Demographics Corporation
djohnson at NDCresearch.com
phone 310-200-2058
fax 818-254-1221

On Mon, Aug 3, 2020 at 8:13 PM Joseph E. La Rue <joseph.e.larue at gmail.com>
wrote:

> Can anyone explain to me why it is that, if we stop counting a month
> early, we "risk a severe undercount of people of color?"  I'm being
> serious; I really don't know how we would know this.  How do we know that
> we do not risk undercounting a greater percentage of Whites than people of
> color?  It seems to me that, in order to make these types of categorical
> statements, we would have to know how many people of each race have been
> counted already, as well as how many remain to be counted.  Do we know
> that?  I'm really not trying to be difficult, I'm just trying to understand
> how these types of statements get made.
>
> Joseph
> ___________________
> *Joseph E. La Rue*
> cell: 480.737.1321
> email: joseph.e.larue at gmail.com
>
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>
> On Mon, Aug 3, 2020 at 6:36 PM Jeff Hauser <jeffhauser at gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> "BREAKING: Census Bureau confirms all #2020Census counting efforts will
>> be cut a month short, risking a severe undercount of people of color.
>> Collecting responses online, over the phone & by mail, plus door knocking
>> at unresponsive homes, to end on Sept. 30"
>> https://twitter.com/hansilowang/status/1290454281632522241
>>
>> So, yeah. Most likely we're going to have an intentionally wrong census
>> in a few months. Pretending that whatever Wilbur Ross has done is a real
>> census seems, to me, wrong.
>>
>> On Thu, Jul 16, 2020 at 12:14 PM Brunell, Thomas <tbrunell at utdallas.edu>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Hopefully non-response follow-up will be able to reach standard levels
>>> of coverage, though that may be impossible.  The Bureau will have to rely
>>> on administrative records and whole household imputation to the extent NRFU
>>> falls short.  Hot deck imputation usually accounts for around 2 percent of
>>> all households in recent censuses.  This time it might be  significantly
>>> higher.  In order for imputation to be reasonably  accurate at higher
>>> levels of geography we still need people in the field to certify which
>>> houses are unoccupied and those that are in fact occupied.  Combine really
>>> high levels of imputation with the new differential privacy methods and it
>>> will be all but impossible to know how good the census data really are.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Tom Brunell, Ph.D.
>>>
>>> Professor of Political Science
>>>
>>> Program Head, Political Science and Public Policy & Political Economy
>>>
>>> 800 W. Campbell Drive, GR 31
>>>
>>> Richardson, TX 75080
>>>
>>> (972) 883-4963
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *From: *Stephanie Singer <sfsinger at campaignscientific.com>
>>> *Sent: *Thursday, July 16, 2020 10:51 AM
>>> *To: *Jeff Hauser <jeffhauser at gmail.com>
>>> *Cc: *Election Law Listserv <law-election at uci.edu>
>>> *Subject: *Re: [EL] what if the Census is not defensibly accurate?
>>>
>>>
>>> This is an important hypothetical to consider. It’s within the realm of
>>> possibility. As is the parallel question for the election.
>>>
>>> And if there is no constitutional Plan B, what would be likely to happen
>>> next?
>>>
>>> On Jul 15, 2020, at 3:53 PM, Jeff Hauser <jeffhauser at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>> My hypothetical is what happens if the results are trash. We are amidst
>>> an international pandemic while we have also just seen the twitter accounts
>>> of half of the world's most powerful people hacked nearly simultaneously.
>>> We also have a USPS being driven into bankruptcy by decades of ideological
>>> assault.
>>>
>>> I  think saying that it is inconceivable that the Census might end up
>>> broken beyond repair is... not in good faith. It's a possibility, and
>>> experts should be thinking about what a Plan B might be within the
>>> constitutional mandate of a census under the terms specified by statute.
>>>
>>> On Wed, Jul 15, 2020 at 6:48 PM Richard Winger <richardwinger at yahoo.com>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> The Census Bureau has plenty of tools beyond just receiving responses
>>>> from individuals.  The Post Office has records; there are utility records;
>>>> property tax records including various homestead exemptions that show who
>>>> lives at a particular address; credit reporting records; drivers license
>>>> records.  All of those records are held by organizations cooperate with the
>>>> Census Bureau.
>>>>
>>>> Richard Winger 415-922-9779 PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> On Wednesday, July 15, 2020, 3:44:10 PM PDT, Jeff Hauser <
>>>> jeffhauser at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> What if, due to malice or circumstance (including but not limited to a
>>>> pandemic), the census that occurs in 2020 does not provide a result in
>>>> which any person of good will can have confidence?
>>>>
>>>> I'm not talking about litigation around the edges -- I am asking what
>>>> if the whole thing appears rotten. What interpretative standards would be
>>>> applied by courts, what would be the best work arounds....
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