[EL] what if the Census is not defensibly accurate?

Mon Aug 3 20:35:45 PDT 2020

Thank you Doug.  I appreciate the information.

Joseph
___________________
*Joseph E. La Rue*
cell: 480.737.1321
email: joseph.e.larue at gmail.com

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On Mon, Aug 3, 2020 at 8:24 PM Douglas Johnson <djohnson at ndcresearch.com>
wrote:

> Official response rate data by city, county, and congressional district
> are available here:  https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html
> California also has a map showing response rates by Census Tract:
> https://census.ca.gov/california-self-response-rate-map/
>
> - Doug
>
> Douglas Johnson
> National Demographics Corporation
> djohnson at NDCresearch.com
> phone 310-200-2058
> fax 818-254-1221
>
> On Mon, Aug 3, 2020 at 8:13 PM Joseph E. La Rue <joseph.e.larue at gmail.com>
> wrote:
>
>> Can anyone explain to me why it is that, if we stop counting a month
>> early, we "risk a severe undercount of people of color?"  I'm being
>> serious; I really don't know how we would know this.  How do we know that
>> we do not risk undercounting a greater percentage of Whites than people of
>> color?  It seems to me that, in order to make these types of categorical
>> statements, we would have to know how many people of each race have been
>> counted already, as well as how many remain to be counted.  Do we know
>> that?  I'm really not trying to be difficult, I'm just trying to understand
>> how these types of statements get made.
>>
>> Joseph
>> ___________________
>> *Joseph E. La Rue*
>> cell: 480.737.1321
>> email: joseph.e.larue at gmail.com
>>
>> CONFIDENTIALITY NOTICE:  This email may be protected by the
>> attorney-client privilege or the attorney work-product doctrine.  If you
>> are not the intended recipient, please delete all copies of the
>> transmission and notify the sender immediately.
>>
>>
>>
>> On Mon, Aug 3, 2020 at 6:36 PM Jeff Hauser <jeffhauser at gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>>> "BREAKING: Census Bureau confirms all #2020Census counting efforts will
>>> be cut a month short, risking a severe undercount of people of color.
>>> Collecting responses online, over the phone & by mail, plus door knocking
>>> at unresponsive homes, to end on Sept. 30"
>>> https://twitter.com/hansilowang/status/1290454281632522241
>>>
>>> So, yeah. Most likely we're going to have an intentionally wrong census
>>> in a few months. Pretending that whatever Wilbur Ross has done is a real
>>> census seems, to me, wrong.
>>>
>>> On Thu, Jul 16, 2020 at 12:14 PM Brunell, Thomas <tbrunell at utdallas.edu>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> Hopefully non-response follow-up will be able to reach standard levels
>>>> of coverage, though that may be impossible.  The Bureau will have to rely
>>>> on administrative records and whole household imputation to the extent NRFU
>>>> falls short.  Hot deck imputation usually accounts for around 2 percent of
>>>> all households in recent censuses.  This time it might be  significantly
>>>> higher.  In order for imputation to be reasonably  accurate at higher
>>>> levels of geography we still need people in the field to certify which
>>>> houses are unoccupied and those that are in fact occupied.  Combine really
>>>> high levels of imputation with the new differential privacy methods and it
>>>> will be all but impossible to know how good the census data really are.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Tom Brunell, Ph.D.
>>>>
>>>> Professor of Political Science
>>>>
>>>> Program Head, Political Science and Public Policy & Political Economy
>>>>
>>>> 800 W. Campbell Drive, GR 31
>>>>
>>>> Richardson, TX 75080
>>>>
>>>> (972) 883-4963
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> *From: *Stephanie Singer <sfsinger at campaignscientific.com>
>>>> *Sent: *Thursday, July 16, 2020 10:51 AM
>>>> *To: *Jeff Hauser <jeffhauser at gmail.com>
>>>> *Cc: *Election Law Listserv <law-election at uci.edu>
>>>> *Subject: *Re: [EL] what if the Census is not defensibly accurate?
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> This is an important hypothetical to consider. It’s within the realm of
>>>> possibility. As is the parallel question for the election.
>>>>
>>>> And if there is no constitutional Plan B, what would be likely to
>>>> happen next?
>>>>
>>>> On Jul 15, 2020, at 3:53 PM, Jeff Hauser <jeffhauser at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>
>>>> My hypothetical is what happens if the results are trash. We are amidst
>>>> an international pandemic while we have also just seen the twitter accounts
>>>> of half of the world's most powerful people hacked nearly simultaneously.
>>>> We also have a USPS being driven into bankruptcy by decades of ideological
>>>> assault.
>>>>
>>>> I  think saying that it is inconceivable that the Census might end up
>>>> broken beyond repair is... not in good faith. It's a possibility, and
>>>> experts should be thinking about what a Plan B might be within the
>>>> constitutional mandate of a census under the terms specified by statute.
>>>>
>>>> On Wed, Jul 15, 2020 at 6:48 PM Richard Winger <richardwinger at yahoo.com>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> The Census Bureau has plenty of tools beyond just receiving responses
>>>>> from individuals.  The Post Office has records; there are utility records;
>>>>> property tax records including various homestead exemptions that show who
>>>>> lives at a particular address; credit reporting records; drivers license
>>>>> records.  All of those records are held by organizations cooperate with the
>>>>> Census Bureau.
>>>>>
>>>>> Richard Winger 415-922-9779 PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> On Wednesday, July 15, 2020, 3:44:10 PM PDT, Jeff Hauser <
>>>>> jeffhauser at gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> What if, due to malice or circumstance (including but not limited to a
>>>>> pandemic), the census that occurs in 2020 does not provide a result in
>>>>> which any person of good will can have confidence?
>>>>>
>>>>> I'm not talking about litigation around the edges -- I am asking what
>>>>> if the whole thing appears rotten. What interpretative standards would be
>>>>> applied by courts, what would be the best work arounds....
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>>>>>
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>
> -
>
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