[EL] Quick question about provisional voting in California

Mon Aug 17 19:11:30 PDT 2020

Capturing just how confusing this all is even for those spending a lot of
time studying it, the statement that " about 50% of CA voters lived in a
VCA county where they automatically received a ballot in the mail for the
primary election" is incorrect. That reflects a common misperception about
the status of Los Angeles County, which was a pseudo-VCA county. Los
Angeles set up vote centers rather than traditional precincts, but did NOT
mail every voter a ballot. Taking Los Angeles out of the count drops that
percentage from 50% to 25%. (For those not from California, Los Angeles
County is slightly over 25% of the state's population).

But the statement about 60% of voters being permanent absentees sounds
correct to me, though I did not double-check that.

- Doug

On Mon, Aug 17, 2020 at 1:45 PM Lisa Bryant <lbryant at csufresno.edu> wrote:

> Yes, "most counties" did not receive ballots automatically, but about 50%
> of CA voters lived in a VCA county where they automatically received a
> ballot in the mail for the primary election this year. In those counties,
> if they didn't take their ballot to the vote center with them the vote
> center printed a new ballot and voided the mailed ballot. They did not have
> to vote provisionally.
>
> Even prior to VCA, over 60% of registered voters in CA were registered for
> permanent absentee ballots, as high as 75% in some counties. CA also has a
> couple of counties that are were exclusively VBM prior to VCA due to small
> populations and their rural nature.  CA, as a whole, is pretty familiar
> with VBM and absentee ballots.
>
> Best,
> Lisa
>
>
> Lisa Bryant, Ph.D.
> Associate Professor, Department of Political Science
> Survey Director, Institute for Leadership and Public Policy
> California State University, Fresno
>
> On Mon, Aug 17, 2020 at 1:28 PM Douglas Johnson <djohnson at ndcresearch.com>
> wrote:
>
>> But that primary was an election where in most counties you actively
>> requested a ballot (either for that election or as a permanent absentee).
>> This November election millions will get mail ballots they never requested
>> - will they know to bring them with them to surrender?
>>
>> Eric McGhee or Thad Kousser (or anyone from that team), has your research
>> with the early “Vote Center” counties shown any indications of how much
>> this is an issue?
>>
>> - Doug
>>
>> On Mon, Aug 17, 2020 at 12:04 PM Pamela S Karlan <pkarlan at stanford.edu>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> Dear Fred and Nate,
>>>
>>> If the primary is any indication, at my polling place, it seemed that
>>> most of us who were voting in person *did* hand in our VBM ballot.
>>>
>>> It's interesting that the Secretary of State's website doesn't say
>>> anything about this.:
>>> https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/voting-info/ways-vote/
>>>
>>> Pamela S. Karlan
>>>
>>> Kenneth and Harle Montgomery Professor of Public Interest Law
>>>
>>> Co-Director, Supreme Court Litigation Clinic
>>>
>>> Stanford Law School
>>>
>>> karlan at stanford.edu
>>>
>>> 650-725-4851
>>>
>>> ------------------------------
>>> *From:* Law-election <law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu> on
>>> behalf of Fredric Woocher <fwoocher at strumwooch.com>
>>> *Sent:* Monday, August 17, 2020 11:52 AM
>>> *To:* Nate Persily <npersily at law.stanford.edu>; Election Law Listserv <
>>> law-election at uci.edu>
>>> *Subject:* Re: [EL] Quick question about provisional voting in
>>> California
>>>
>>>
>>> Nate,
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> I do not know the answer for certain, but unless the voter hands in the
>>> unvoted VBM ballot, I don’t see how it could be otherwise.  For those
>>> counties that will still be using traditional polling places, there is no
>>> other way for the pollworkers to know whether the voted VBM has already
>>> been returned prior to casting a ballot at the polling place.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> I believe some counties that have the ability to use electronic polling
>>> books, with real-time countywide information on who has voted and by what
>>> means, may be able to avoid the use of provisional ballots, but I don’t see
>>> how that can be avoided in other counties.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> And this has the potential to introduce an additional grounds for
>>> invalidating the voted ballot, because many people forget to sign their
>>> provisional ballots in every election.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/10940+Wilshire+Blvd.,+Ste.+2000+%0D%0A+%0D%0A+Los+Angeles,+CA+90024?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>>
>>>
>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/10940+Wilshire+Blvd.,+Ste.+2000+%0D%0A+%0D%0A+Los+Angeles,+CA+90024?entry=gmail&source=g>Fredric
>>> D. Woocher
>>>
>>> Strumwasser & Woocher LLP
>>>
>>> 10940 Wilshire Blvd., Ste. 2000
>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/10940+Wilshire+Blvd.,+Ste.+2000+%0D%0A+%0D%0A+Los+Angeles,+CA+90024?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>>
>>> Los Angeles, CA 90024
>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/10940+Wilshire+Blvd.,+Ste.+2000+%0D%0A+%0D%0A+Los+Angeles,+CA+90024?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>>
>>> fwoocher at strumwooch.com
>>>
>>> (310) 576-1233 x105
>>>
>>>
>>>
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>>> Strumwasser & Woocher LLP is CLOSED TO THE PUBLIC.  *Packages requiring
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>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> *From:* Law-election [mailto:
>>> law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] *On Behalf Of *Nate
>>> Persily
>>> *Sent:* Monday, August 17, 2020 11:45 AM
>>> *To:* Election Law Listserv <law-election at uci.edu>
>>> *Subject:* [EL] Quick question about provisional voting in California
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> Does anyone know if the voters who will choose to vote in person in
>>> California this November will need to vote a provisional ballot?  That is,
>>> given that all active registrants will receive ballots in the mail, will
>>> those who opt for polling places necessarily be casting a provisional
>>> ballot, rather than a "normal" ballot?
>>>
>>> ----------------
>>>
>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/559+Nathan+Abbott+Way+%0D%0A+Stanford,+CA+94305-8610?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>>
>>> Nate Persily
>>>
>>> James B. McClatchy Professor of Law
>>> Stanford Law School
>>> 559 Nathan Abbott Way
>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/559+Nathan+Abbott+Way+%0D%0A+Stanford,+CA+94305-8610?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>> Stanford, CA 94305-8610
>>> <https://www.google.com/maps/search/559+Nathan+Abbott+Way+%0D%0A+Stanford,+CA+94305-8610?entry=gmail&source=g>
>>> (917) 570-3223
>>> npersily at stanford.edu
>>>
>>> www.persily.com
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>>
>> --
>> Douglas Johnson
>> National Demographics Corporation
>> djohnson at NDCresearch.com
>> phone 310-200-2058
>>
>> _______________________________________________
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>
>

-- 
Douglas Johnson
National Demographics Corporation
djohnson at NDCresearch.com
phone 310-200-2058
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