[EL] President Pelosi

[David Segal]

If you go down this rabbit hole then you end up having to do an analysis
that looks at stuff like-

-If nobody in the current Senate class is re-elected then the chamber would
shift to Dems on Jan 3.
-Pro tem is a Constitutional office -- so does it lock in for the whole
Congress on the first day of session (such that whoever it is on Jan 3
would be it on Jan 2020?) or does it change if the majority changes?
-So then you need to look at questions like whether states can fill
vacancies prospectively/instantaneously or if the new Senate can pull off
choosing its officers without any of the vacancies having been filled.

And when you look at filling vacancies-

-Most relevant states have governors of the same party as the current
senator, but among those that don't, Dems have the advantage.
-CO, KS, LA, ME, NC all have R senators who are up but D governors.
-AL, MA, NH are the opposite.
-Some of the governors in those states are up (NC and NH will be
competitive) and so are governors in a few other states with Senate races.
-But then if state elections aren't held in states with governors up you
have to do a gubernatorial start date and/or succession analysis
state-by-state to see who would have appointing authority.
-A couple states that have Senate seats up this year have no appointment
provision -- just special elections on relatively quick timeframe, but
likely not prior to when there'd be a POTUS vacancy.

Etc, etc


On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 9:00 AM Sean Parnell <
sean at impactpolicymanagement.com> wrote:

> Because the Senate is a continuous body, there would still be a president
> pro-tem (and the governors in states that failed to elect new senators
> could, in most cases I think, appoint a replacement). So at present,
> welcome
> President Chuck Grassley!
>
> Sean
>
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Law-election <law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu> On
> Behalf
> Of Steven John Mulroy (smulroy)
> Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 6:19 AM
> To: law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
> Subject: [EL] President Pelosi
>
> Pardon me if this has already been discussed and I missed it.
>
> There's been some commentary Taft if the Nov election were
> canceled/postponed past Jan, then of course Trump and Pence couldn't stay
> in
> office. Fair enough. But some have said that under the line of succession,
> it would fall to House Speaker Pelosi. But under this scenario, she would
> not have been re-elected. So what result?
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