[EL] President Pelosi

[Steven John Mulroy (smulroy)]

A rabbit hole indeed. Thanks.

________________________________
From: David Segal <davidadamsegal at gmail.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 1:57 PM
To: Sean Parnell <sean at impactpolicymanagement.com>
Cc: Steven John Mulroy (smulroy) <smulroy at memphis.edu>; Election Law <law-election at department-lists.uci.edu>
Subject: Re: [EL] President Pelosi


If you go down this rabbit hole then you end up having to do an analysis that looks at stuff like-

-If nobody in the current Senate class is re-elected then the chamber would shift to Dems on Jan 3.
-Pro tem is a Constitutional office -- so does it lock in for the whole Congress on the first day of session (such that whoever it is on Jan 3 would be it on Jan 2020?) or does it change if the majority changes?
-So then you need to look at questions like whether states can fill vacancies prospectively/instantaneously or if the new Senate can pull off choosing its officers without any of the vacancies having been filled.

And when you look at filling vacancies-

-Most relevant states have governors of the same party as the current senator, but among those that don't, Dems have the advantage.
-CO, KS, LA, ME, NC all have R senators who are up but D governors.
-AL, MA, NH are the opposite.
-Some of the governors in those states are up (NC and NH will be competitive) and so are governors in a few other states with Senate races.
-But then if state elections aren't held in states with governors up you have to do a gubernatorial start date and/or succession analysis state-by-state to see who would have appointing authority.
-A couple states that have Senate seats up this year have no appointment provision -- just special elections on relatively quick timeframe, but likely not prior to when there'd be a POTUS vacancy.

Etc, etc


On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 9:00 AM Sean Parnell <sean at impactpolicymanagement.com<mailto:sean at impactpolicymanagement.com>> wrote:
Because the Senate is a continuous body, there would still be a president
pro-tem (and the governors in states that failed to elect new senators
could, in most cases I think, appoint a replacement). So at present, welcome
President Chuck Grassley!

Sean


-----Original Message-----
From: Law-election <law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu<mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu>> On Behalf
Of Steven John Mulroy (smulroy)
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 6:19 AM
To: law-election at department-lists.uci.edu<mailto:law-election at department-lists.uci.edu>
Subject: [EL] President Pelosi

Pardon me if this has already been discussed and I missed it.

There's been some commentary Taft if the Nov election were
canceled/postponed past Jan, then of course Trump and Pence couldn't stay in
office. Fair enough. But some have said that under the line of succession,
it would fall to House Speaker Pelosi. But under this scenario, she would
not have been re-elected. So what result?
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