[EL] delays in ballot counting in presidential swing/toss up states

Tue Oct 6 14:58:54 PDT 2020

WA state prediction by SoS Kim Wyman on 9-22 : 
90% of ballots to be counted & reported by Tuesday Nov 10. 
WA notes: 
All vote-by-mail. 
Election-day postmark deadline (not a deadline that ballots arrive in official hands by election day). 
Late-arriving ballots with valid postmark are counted if arrive through Monday Nov 23, the day before county certification. 
That last 10 percent consists of the trickle of slow UOCAVA and snailmail arrivals, plus ballot envelope signature cures . 
Wyman expects Nov turnout may exceed 90%. 
She reports that in normal lower-turnout years, and with higher percent of ballots voted earlier, that 90% level would normally be reached on Friday Nov 6. 

Sec Wyman explains her estimate's logistics and variables at play beginning at timestamp 50:50 at video below. 
Thank you, 
posted by Tim White, Okanogan WA 

Stand with the facts - Voting security and what you need to know 
[ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=me2sReDH2h4 | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=me2sReDH2h4 ] 
WA SoS Wyman interviewed by Kim Malcolm 
KUOW (Seattle NPR affiliate) 
9-22-20 
from minute 50:50 

From: "Hess, Doug" <HESSDOUG at Grinnell.EDU> 
To: "law-election" <law-election at department-lists.uci.edu> 
Sent: Tuesday, October 6, 2020 12:12:51 PM 
Subject: [EL] delays in ballot counting in presidential swing/toss up states 

Hello. 

I’m wondering if anybody has or has seen analysis on which states are certain (or very likely) to be counting mail-in ballots well after election day? From there, I can figure out which might be “close” presidential-election states. 

If you respond, please keep my email address in the response as I am embarrassed to say that I don’t check the list as regularly as I should (mea culpa). 

Thank you. 

----------------------- 

Douglas R Hess 

On sabbatical until Aug 31, 2021 

Asst. Professor, Political Science/Policy Studies 

[ https://urldefense.proofpoint.com/v2/url?u=http-3A__www.douglasrhess.com_&d=DwMGaQ&c=HUrdOLg_tCr0UMeDjWLBOM9lLDRpsndbROGxEKQRFzk&r=xr_OjwGHtP-zw6I-DJj_MQ4cusLbiVT1bScGa0c8ZJo&m=1Su0W65D8QCtkZsJ9MBhqWnbMcCIi_d8PwyIITS_tY4&s=aHRFhpmE6iq5wHSEeTCwBPdVAD0eUAghzYZAx_GUTyE&e= | http://www.douglasrhess.com ] 

----------------------- 

_______________________________________________ 
Law-election mailing list 
Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu 
https://department-lists.uci.edu/mailman/listinfo/law-election 
-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://webshare.law.ucla.edu/Listservs/law-election/attachments/20201006/267f7c73/attachment.html>