[EL] the downside of Alaska Measure Two

[Richard Winger]

Today Professor Pildes posted his amicus curiae in support of Alaska Measure Two.  He called it a "reform", which implies that it is good policy.
His amicus does not discuss the harm done by Measure Two:
1. It weakens Alaska political parties.  As Ezra Klein writes in his "Why We're Polarized" (2020), the lesson from research by Raymond La Raja and Brian Schaffner is "the more powerful the parties were, the less polarization in the state legislatures."  A recent example of the virtue of strong parties is the Republican Party of Virginia's choice to nominate Glenn Youngkin for Governor this year, which it did with a convention (using ranked choice voting), not a primary.

Defenders of Measure Two seem motivated by a desire to help Senator Lisa Murkowski get re-elected in 2022.  But if Murkowski can't win the 2022 Republican Senate primary, why is it good policy to let her appear on the November 2022 ballot with the ballot label "Republican"?  Of course maybe she could have won a standard party primary in 2022, in which case she would deserve that "Republican" label on the November ballot.  And if she feels she couldn't have won a standard party primary in 2022, she was always free to petition as an independent candidate.
2. Measure Two injures ballot access in two ways: (1) it makes it more difficult for parties to meet the definition of a qualified party, by eliminating the vote test that was present under the old law.  (2) experience in other states without party nominees, and the experience of Alaska's past blanket primaries, shows that only Democrats and Republicans are likely to qualify for the November ballot for Governor and US Senator..  In California (which has had a top-two system starting in 2011) and Washington (which has had it starting in 2008), there is no instance of any minor party for Governor or US Senator placing higher than sixth, in the primary, thus dooming their opportunity to be on the November ballot for those offices, even under a top-four system, which Alaska has.

It's plausible that in 2022, the only states that will have a Democratic-Republican monopoly for statewide office will be the states that don't have party nominees, although it is tough to predict whether any third party or independent candidates will be able to qualify in New York, a state that does have party nominees but which severely stiffened ballot access last year.

Richard Winger 415-922-9779 PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
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