[EL] Why "motor voter" performance varies so much across states

Tue Feb 22 15:25:02 PST 2022

Very curious, Doug. 

Add'l possible variables among states: 

Americans moving into a state (vs out of a state). 
Non-citizens who hold state driver licenses. 
High rate of new citizens, who reg at citizenship ceremony (in WA for example) rather than at driver licensing (which they may already hold). 
More noncitizen residents who get driver licenses--bigger effect in states like WA that issue driver licenses to undocumented residents. 
Variations on how aggressively a state makes out-of-state arrivals to get their new state's driver license. (I once got dinged in CA for a driver license from a state different from my vehicle reg.) 
Rates of licensed drivers who are disenfranchised for a past conviction--huge variation by state. 
Variations in rates of driver license suspensions/revocations. 
Variations in how consistently and aggressively licensing personnel ask/encourage reg'g to vote. 

Inconsistency among state reports in differentiating tween a new reg and various kinds of reg updates? E.g.: 
Marriage & divorce rates no doubt vary by state, and per cent of women & men who change name upon marriage & upon divorce no doubt also varies. 
I once cancelled my reg in one county BEFORE reg-ing in my new county. Looks like I'm a new reg in VRDB. 
WA cites variables such as frequency of moving--10% of WA voters move within the state ea year, requiring an updated driver license (or state-issued ID), and therefore updated reg. 

Various possible factors: 
How frequently at what ages youth must show for various kinds of driver licensing: learner permits, student permits, limited term licenses, adult required in car for youthful licensee to be legal, standard adult licenses. 
Age at which a citizen first typically gets driver license. If 16 or 17, and without pre-reg of those ages, those youths will miss prime opportunity to reg at 18. Young people missed at 16 or 17 may not be back at DMV licensing for 2 years or 3 or 4, depending on duration of a license. Or, they may never reg. 

Some of those thought bubbles are prob off-base. Other listers, chime in. 
Intriguing questions, Doug. Keep us posted on your findings. 
Tim White 

From: "Doug Hess" <dougrhess at gmail.com> 
To: "law-election" <law-election at department-lists.uci.edu> 
Sent: Tuesday, February 22, 2022 2:17:09 PM 
Subject: [EL] Why "motor voter" performance varies so much across states 

I'm wondering if anybody has thoughts on why some states consistently have a much lower output--even controlling for population--from DMV voter registration programs than other states? Even accounting for the recent surge in "automatic" voter registration (AVR) policies--or looking at the data prior to such policies--the differences in state performance are rather stunning. 

For instance, I divided the number of voter registration applications from DMVs by the number of drivers in each state. Although the ratio has been rising for most states over time, the differences between states are enormous. E.g., the ratio in IN and KY is consistently double that in MO and MS. Likewise, of all voter reg applications received in an election cycle, the percentage that are from DMVs varies markedly by state. Finally, the percentage of respondents stating they registered at a DMV in the Current Population Survey has also been rising over time, but some states consistently have a percentage that is four or five times higher than other states. 

No doubt some of this is due to compliance problems, the ease of registration via other means, and how frequently people move or must renew a license (and under-explored topic related to AVR). Some of this is also likely due to reporting problems; although those problems would have to be very consistent to produce the trends I'm looking at (from 2008 to 2020). 

Still, I'm left wondering if there are other reasons why some states would not only have a lower ratio than others but consistently have a lower ratio. Do any recent visitors to your local DMV have thoughts on this? I'd appreciate any ideas . 

-Doug Hess, Ph.D. 
[ http://www.douglasrhess.com/ | http://www.douglasrhess.com ] @douglasrhess 
[ https://www.linkedin.com/in/douglasrhess/ | https://www.linkedin.com/in/douglasrhess/ ] 

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