[EL] Law-election Digest, Vol 19, Issue 9
Menzel, Ken
KMenzel at elections.il.gov
Wed Nov 7 13:08:00 PST 2012
3. Re: Video of PA touchscreen vote flipping in presidential
race, apparently not miscalibration
It is my understanding that a miscalibration affecting an office will not necessarily impact an adjacent office in the same manner. So the fact that the tocu recorded correctly for an adjacent candidate wouldn't "prove" that miscalibration isn't the problem.
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Today's Topics:
1. Equal Protection problems in NJ? (Joseph Lorenzo Hall)
2. Guam presidential vote now counted; comparison with 2008 Guam
vote (Richard Winger)
3. Re: Video of PA touchscreen vote flipping in presidential
race, apparently not miscalibration (Mark Schmitt)
4. ELB Election Day Update # 2 (Rick Hasen)
5. Re: Guam presidential vote now counted; comparison with 2008
Guam vote (Smith, Brad)
6. Re: Guam presidential vote now counted; comparison with 2008
Guam vote (Arn Pearson)
7. Guam has always voted for the winner (Richard Winger)
8. voter registration applications with maps (Doug Hess)
9. Re: voter registration applications with maps
(john.k.tanner at gmail.com)
10. Re: Guam has always voted for the winner (Bill Maurer)
11. Non-citizen (and dog) registration in New Mexico (bzall at aol.com)
12. ELB Election Day Update # 3 (Rick Hasen)
13. ELB Election Day Update # 4 (Rick Hasen)
14. Re: Video of PA touchscreen vote flipping in presidential
race, apparently not miscalibration (Joseph Lorenzo Hall)
15. ELB Election Day Update # 5 (Rick Hasen)
16. Arizona defeats top-two by 2:1 (Richard Winger)
17. Re: Super PACs and the Presidency (Steve Hoersting)
18. Mitt Romney and Americans Elect; what might have been
(Richard Winger)
19. ELB Election Day Final Update (Rick Hasen)
20. Re: ELB Election Day Final Update (Goldfeder, Jerry H.)
21. Twitter "analysis" of waiting in line (Jack Santucci)
22. Republicans only won 8 US Senate seats; smallest for either
since 1964 (Richard Winger)
23. Re: Super PACs and the Presidency (Mark Schmitt)
24. Re: Super PACs and the Presidency (Steve Hoersting)
25. Re: Super PACs and the Presidency (Mark Schmitt)
26. Re: Super PACs and the Presidency (Steve Hoersting)
27. ELB News and Commentary 11/7/12 (Rick Hasen)
28. popular and electoral vote counts; turnout down in 2012
(Mark Rush)
29. Re: popular and electoral vote counts; turnout down in 2012
(Richard Winger)
30. Re: popular and electoral vote counts; turnout down in 2012
(Rob Richie)
31. Re: popular and electoral vote counts; turnout down in 2012
(Michael McDonald)
32. Re: popular and electoral vote counts; turnout; my error
(Richard Winger)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Message: 1
Date: Tue, 6 Nov 2012 15:25:39 -0500
From: Joseph Lorenzo Hall <joehall at gmail.com>
Subject: [EL] Equal Protection problems in NJ?
To: "law-election at uci.edu" <law-election at uci.edu>
Message-ID:
<CACDmtYYFNov7+34BUvYj-fENou-tL5mhwkmDUUg1HAwNJcSugA at mail.gmail.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
This new directive seems to indicate that voters can apply for an absentee
ballot via email in NJ today before 5p, but that the (electronic) ballot
need not be returned until Friday:
http://www.njelections.org/2012-results/directive-volume-and-extension.pdf
Does than mean that people will be casting ballots after election day? Will
NJ withhold results until Friday? With late acceptance of UOCAVA ballots
there is still (I think) a postmark requirement for election day although
the thing can arrive later.
V. confused. best, Joe
--
https://josephhall.org/
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Message: 2
Date: Tue, 6 Nov 2012 12:56:30 -0800 (PST)
From: Richard Winger <richardwinger at yahoo.com>
Subject: [EL] Guam presidential vote now counted; comparison with 2008
Guam vote
To: law-election at uci.edu
Message-ID:
<1352235390.27090.YahooMailClassic at web140401.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"
http://www.ballot-access.org/2012/11/06/guam-presidential-vote-now-counted-democrats-libertarians-gain-relative-to-2008/
Richard Winger
415-922-9779
PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
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Message: 3
Date: Tue, 6 Nov 2012 15:59:11 -0500
From: Mark Schmitt <schmitt.mark at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [EL] Video of PA touchscreen vote flipping in
presidential race, apparently not miscalibration
To: Election Law <law-election at uci.edu>
Message-ID:
<CAAPHPXzuLF1HeEeyknm1yAVPvt=+eCkTO9uZYbA7gaziKcVuUQ at mail.gmail.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
"when voting for the Libertarian candidate below Obama (since Obama is
below Romney) the machine correctly lights up and check marks Jill Stein's
name, the Libertarian candidate, unlike what appears on the screen for the
attempted Obama vote."
Jill Stein is not the Libertarian candidate. She's the Green candidate.
Mark Schmitt
Senior Fellow, The Roosevelt Institute <http://www.rooseveltinstitute.org/>
202/246-2350
gchat or Skype: schmitt.mark
twitter: mschmitt9
On Tue, Nov 6, 2012 at 2:46 PM, Paul Lehto <lehto.paul at gmail.com> wrote:
> Here's an 18 second video snippet of a Pennsylvania voter attempting to
> vote for Obama but Romney lights up on the screen instead. It's hard-to-get
> evidence in light of the fact that most states make it illegal to possess
> cameras or video equipment at polling places, (perhaps PA does as well) so
> evidence like this is hard to come by relative to how frequently it is
> heard.18 second highlight of Obama attempt: http://www.youtube.com/
> watch?v=QdpGd74DrBM
> Longer version: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOj2IPulNPA
> In the longer version from which this snippet is taken, it's stated that
> the voter tested to see if it was "miscalibration". However, when voting
> for the Libertarian candidate below Obama (since Obama is below Romney) the
> machine correctly lights up and check marks Jill Stein's name, the
> Libertarian candidate, unlike what appears on the screen for the attempted
> Obama vote. So, apparently the problem is not miscalibration of a half
> inch or so.
>
> The miscalibration "test" does not appear on screen, but it's stated that
> the voter will submit their video for some sort of authentication. But
> given the *prima facie* evidence here of changed votes without
> miscalibration being a facile explanation, it can not simply be assumed
> that when a machine lights up and check marks a certain candidate that
> this necessarily translates into an actual, recorded, electronic vote for
> that candidate, because the naked presumption that the voting machine
> obeys only the voter's command and not anything else is shattered - at
> least for this voter and thousands of others. This kind of touch screen
> behavior has been a top complaint in the past couple presidential
> elections.
>
> Paul Lehto, J.D.
>
> PS I don't assert a fraud case per se, though this is the seed of a
> potential case. Instead, the problem is bigger than fraud, and basically
> nonpartisan: because literally no human being has personal knowledge of
> whether vote totals are correct, and because results of elections are not
> reproducible and computerized counts are both invisible and secret, there
> is no scientific basis for confidence in the reported results, no matter
> what they are and no matter who wins, whether it's my favored candidates or
> not (and I do vote).
> This is all because of the HAVA-based approach to addressing the perceived
> problems of ambiguous voter intent evidence symbolized by the hanging chad
> from Florida 2000: On account of the problems of ambiguous voter intent
> evidence in the agonizing over hanging chads, let's ELIMINATE ALL evidence
> of voter intent by using touch screens. Brilliant.
>
> Rather than claiming the views of critics "cause harm" (apparently to the
> necessary "confidence" or "faith" in secret vote counting), we ought to
> recognize how terribly fragile the system is and fix it, restoring
> transparent public vote counts. When a person or group comes along with
> enough power and media access, they will be able, with not all that much
> evidence, to invalidate election results because as little evidence as
> there may be for fraud, there's MORE evidence of fraud (even if a
> scintilla) than there is in the utterly conclusory and magical election
> results that pop out of black box computers.
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Law-election mailing list
> Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
> http://department-lists.uci.edu/mailman/listinfo/law-election
>
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Message: 4
Date: Tue, 6 Nov 2012 13:17:54 -0800
From: Rick Hasen <rhasen at law.uci.edu>
Subject: [EL] ELB Election Day Update # 2
To: "law-election at UCI.edu" <law-election at UCI.edu>
Message-ID: <50997E82.3090509 at law.uci.edu>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
"Election Day Dispatches Entry 5: Black Panthers, Navy Seals, and
mysterious voting machines." <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43614>
Posted on November 6, 2012 1:16 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43614>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
I've written this "Election Day Dispatch"
<http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/features/2012/election_day_2012/presidential_election_election_day_controversies_are_the_new_normal.html>
for /Slate./
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
"Ohio's Crucial Election Law Fights"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43611>
Posted on November 6, 2012 1:02 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43611>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Dan Tokaji writes
<http://www.tnr.com/blog/plank/109732/ohios-crucial-election-court-fights>
for /The New Republic./
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
"Should We Be Concerned That This Voting Machine Selects "Romney"
When You Press "Obama?"" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43609>
Posted on November 6, 2012 1:01 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43609>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Slate reports.
<http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2012/11/06/pennsylvania_voting_machine_glitch_selects_romney_when_voter_touches_obama.html>
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>, voter id
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=9> | Comments Off
"Philly DA probes reported voting inspector issues"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43605>
Posted on November 6, 2012 12:59 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43605> by Rick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
AP reports.
<http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20121106_ap_phillydaprobesreportedvotinginspectorissues.html>
See also this story on the Obama mural
<http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20121106_GOP_goes_to_court_to_remove_Obama_mural_at_polling_site.html>.
The latter is small potatoes. But the former requires a full investigation.
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
"Turmoil Follows as Pa. Voter ID Law Meets Reality"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43603>
Posted on November 6, 2012 12:57 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43603> by Rick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
TPM reports.
<http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2012/11/pennsylvania_voter_id_election_day.php>
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
Ohio Software Suit Rejected <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43601>
Posted on November 6, 2012 12:57 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43601> by Rick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
See here.
<http://www.sos.state.oh.us/SOS/mediaCenter/2012/2012-11-06-a.aspx>
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>, voting technology
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=40> | Comments Off
"Observers Watch for Voting Problems"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43598>
Posted on November 6, 2012 12:55 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43598> by Rick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
USA Today
<http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/11/06/voting-problems-presidential-election/1685783/>
reports.
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
"Regardless of Presidential Race Results, Voting Issues Likely to
Spark Lawsuits" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43596>
Posted on November 6, 2012 12:54 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43596> by Rick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
BLT reports.
<http://legaltimes.typepad.com/blt/2012/11/regardless-of-presidential-race-results-voting-issues-likely-to-spark-lawsuits.html>
Share
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Posted in Uncategorized <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1> | Comments Off
"Western Tradition Partnership: Bank records show coordination with
legislative candidate" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43593>
Posted on November 6, 2012 12:30 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43593> by Rick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
News
<http://missoulian.com/elections_2012/state/article_0dbe2cba-2841-11e2-9c6f-001a4bcf887a.html>
from Missouri.
Share
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10> |
Comments Off
"20 Recalls taking place on Election Day; 4 jurisdictions to decide
whether to adopt the recall" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43590>
Posted on November 6, 2012 12:20 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43590> by Rick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
This item
<http://recallelections.blogspot.com/2012/11/20-recalls-taking-place-on-election-day.html>
appears on the Recall Elections Blog.
Share
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Posted in recall elections <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=11> |
Comments Off
"A Vote for Election Week" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43588>
Posted on November 6, 2012 12:18 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43588> by Rick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Josh Douglas writes
<http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2012/11/06/a-vote-for-election-week/>
for Reuters.
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18> |
Comments Off
"Problems at the Polls" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43585>
Posted on November 6, 2012 11:58 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43585> by Rick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
David Firestone blogs
<http://takingnote.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/06/problems-at-the-polls/>
at the NYT "Taking Note" blog.
Share
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Posted in Uncategorized <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1> | Comments Off
"Machine turns vote for Obama into one for Romney"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43583>
Posted on November 6, 2012 11:57 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43583> by Rick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
NBC reports.
<http://tv.msnbc.com/2012/11/06/machine-turns-vote-for-obama-into-one-for-romney/>
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
voting technology <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=40> | Comments Off
More Proof that Florida Cannot Run a Competent Election
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43580>
Posted on November 6, 2012 10:17 am
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43580> by Rick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
WaPo:
<http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/wp/2012/11/06/glitch-leads-to-mistaken-warning-from-florida-elections-supervisor/?Post+generic=%3Ftid%3Dsm_twitter_washingtonpost> "Hundreds
and potentially thousand of voters in Florida's Pinellas County received
automatic calls from the local supervisor of elections mistakenly
informing them that they had until 7 p.m. tomorrow to cast their votes.
Of course, they actually have until 7 p.m. this evening."
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18> |
Comments Off
"Discouraging Election Contests" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43577>
Posted on November 6, 2012 9:10 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43577>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Josh Douglas blogs
<http://moritzlaw.osu.edu/electionlaw/comments/index.php?ID=10055>.
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
"True the Vote observers barred from Franklin County polling places"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43574>
Posted on November 6, 2012 9:01 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43574>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
/Columbus Dispatch
<http://dispatchpolitics.dispatch.com/content/blogs/the-daily-briefing/2012/11/6-november-2012---ttv-denied.html>:
/"True the Vote -- whose Ohio branch is called the Voter Integrity
Project -- was denied status as official observers because at least most
of the candidates who supported the organization's effort withdrew their
backing. State law allows groups of at least five candidates to assign
poll observers, and the group originally had obtained signatures from a
bipartisan group of six candidates for county office."
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
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"Judge issuing order to reinstate booted Philadelphia election
officials, Republicans say" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43571>
Posted on November 6, 2012 8:39 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43571>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
FOX News reports
<http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/11/06/judge-issuing-order-to-reinstate-booted-philadelphia-election-officials/>.
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
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--
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-8000
949.824.3072 - office
949.824.0495 - fax
rhasen at law.uci.edu
http://law.uci.edu/faculty/page1_r_hasen.html
http://electionlawblog.org
Now available: The Voting Wars: http://amzn.to/y22ZTv
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Message: 5
Date: Tue, 6 Nov 2012 21:19:19 +0000
From: "Smith, Brad" <BSmith at law.capital.edu>
Subject: Re: [EL] Guam presidential vote now counted; comparison with
2008 Guam vote
To: "richardwinger at yahoo.com" <richardwinger at yahoo.com>,
"law-election at uci.edu" <law-election at uci.edu>
Message-ID:
<51D6964FB432CC4D8A09CA508AF5844735CE6EF4 at MSGEXCH02.capital.edu>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
As Guam goes, so goes the nation?
Bradley A. Smith
Josiah H. Blackmore II/Shirley M. Nault
Professor of Law
Capital University Law School
303 E. Broad St.
Columbus, OH 43215
614.236.6317
http://law.capital.edu/faculty/bios/bsmith.aspx
________________________________
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] on behalf of Richard Winger [richardwinger at yahoo.com]
Sent: Tuesday, November 06, 2012 3:56 PM
To: law-election at uci.edu
Subject: [EL] Guam presidential vote now counted; comparison with 2008 Guam vote
http://www.ballot-access.org/2012/11/06/guam-presidential-vote-now-counted-democrats-libertarians-gain-relative-to-2008/
Richard Winger
415-922-9779
PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
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Message: 6
Date: Tue, 6 Nov 2012 21:43:45 +0000
From: Arn Pearson <APearson at commoncause.org>
Subject: Re: [EL] Guam presidential vote now counted; comparison with
2008 Guam vote
To: "Smith, Brad" <BSmith at law.capital.edu>, "richardwinger at yahoo.com"
<richardwinger at yahoo.com>, "law-election at uci.edu"
<law-election at uci.edu>
Message-ID:
<7884F8FC2D2A8542846E2354B2B81FADF814A2 at BL2PRD0811MB410.namprd08.prod.outlook.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
Or, as they say, "As goes Guam, so goes American Samoa."
________________________________
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] on behalf of Smith, Brad [BSmith at law.capital.edu]
Sent: Tuesday, November 06, 2012 4:19 PM
To: richardwinger at yahoo.com; law-election at uci.edu
Subject: Re: [EL] Guam presidential vote now counted; comparison with 2008 Guam vote
As Guam goes, so goes the nation?
Bradley A. Smith
Josiah H. Blackmore II/Shirley M. Nault
Professor of Law
Capital University Law School
303 E. Broad St.
Columbus, OH 43215
614.236.6317
http://law.capital.edu/faculty/bios/bsmith.aspx
________________________________
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] on behalf of Richard Winger [richardwinger at yahoo.com]
Sent: Tuesday, November 06, 2012 3:56 PM
To: law-election at uci.edu
Subject: [EL] Guam presidential vote now counted; comparison with 2008 Guam vote
http://www.ballot-access.org/2012/11/06/guam-presidential-vote-now-counted-democrats-libertarians-gain-relative-to-2008/
Richard Winger
415-922-9779
PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
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Message: 7
Date: Tue, 6 Nov 2012 13:48:12 -0800 (PST)
From: Richard Winger <richardwinger at yahoo.com>
Subject: [EL] Guam has always voted for the winner
To: BradSmith <BSmith at law.capital.edu>, "law-election at uci.edu"
<law-election at uci.edu>, Arn Pearson <APearson at commoncause.org>
Message-ID:
<1352238492.65056.YahooMailClassic at web140402.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
Brad was right.? Guam started this in 1984 and has always voted for the person who won the election.
Richard Winger
415-922-9779
PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
--- On Tue, 11/6/12, Arn Pearson <APearson at commoncause.org> wrote:
From: Arn Pearson <APearson at commoncause.org>
Subject: RE: [EL] Guam presidential vote now counted; comparison with 2008 Guam vote
To: "Smith, Brad" <BSmith at law.capital.edu>, "richardwinger at yahoo.com" <richardwinger at yahoo.com>, "law-election at uci.edu" <law-election at uci.edu>
Date: Tuesday, November 6, 2012, 1:43 PM
#yiv1570081272 P {margin-top:0;margin-bottom:0;}
Or, as they say, "As goes Guam, so goes American Samoa."
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] on behalf of Smith, Brad [BSmith at law.capital.edu]
Sent: Tuesday, November 06, 2012 4:19 PM
To: richardwinger at yahoo.com; law-election at uci.edu
Subject: Re: [EL] Guam presidential vote now counted; comparison with 2008 Guam vote
As Guam goes, so goes the nation?
Bradley A. Smith
Josiah H. Blackmore II/Shirley M. Nault
?? Professor of Law
Capital University Law School
303 E. Broad St.
Columbus, OH 43215
614.236.6317
http://law.capital.edu/faculty/bios/bsmith.aspx
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] on behalf of Richard Winger [richardwinger at yahoo.com]
Sent: Tuesday, November 06, 2012 3:56 PM
To: law-election at uci.edu
Subject: [EL] Guam presidential vote now counted; comparison with 2008 Guam vote
http://www.ballot-access.org/2012/11/06/guam-presidential-vote-now-counted-democrats-libertarians-gain-relative-to-2008/
Richard Winger
415-922-9779
PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
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Message: 8
Date: Tue, 6 Nov 2012 16:59:37 -0500
From: Doug Hess <douglasrhess at gmail.com>
Subject: [EL] voter registration applications with maps
To: Election Law <Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu>
Message-ID:
<CAA76P+qwD4bkMtRWvFCfjgkeJE=fdG1jRQFdAO2E_s-got5SHw at mail.gmail.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
For rural registration, some states used to have on their voter
registration application a little diagram of cross streets that you would
fill in with the name of the roads and put an x where you are. Does this
ring a bell with anybody? This came up in a discussion with some friends
about the homeless and voter registration.
Douglas R. Hess, PhD
Washington, DC
ph. 202-277-6400
douglasrhess at gmail.com
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Message: 9
Date: Tue, 6 Nov 2012 22:02:02 +0000
From: john.k.tanner at gmail.com
Subject: Re: [EL] voter registration applications with maps
To: "Doug Hess" <douglasrhess at gmail.com>, "Election Law"
<Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu>
Message-ID:
<1481019032-1352239323-cardhu_decombobulator_blackberry.rim.net-1097109701- at b26.c14.bise6.blackberry>
Content-Type: text/plain
The federal form has such a "map".
Sent from my Verizon Wireless BlackBerry
-----Original Message-----
From: Doug Hess <douglasrhess at gmail.com>
Sender: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
Date: Tue, 6 Nov 2012 16:59:37
To: Election Law<Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu>
Subject: [EL] voter registration applications with maps
_______________________________________________
Law-election mailing list
Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
http://department-lists.uci.edu/mailman/listinfo/law-election
------------------------------
Message: 10
Date: Tue, 6 Nov 2012 22:02:48 +0000
From: Bill Maurer <wmaurer at ij.org>
Subject: Re: [EL] Guam has always voted for the winner
To: "richardwinger at yahoo.com" <richardwinger at yahoo.com>, BradSmith
<BSmith at law.capital.edu>, "law-election at uci.edu"
<law-election at uci.edu>, Arn Pearson <APearson at commoncause.org>
Message-ID:
<6B3EB6532200644FBDF786C9D025A8FE1C1A8C7D at EXCHANGE01.JUSTICE-DC.org>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"
Richard,
Your analysis contradicts the Washington [Football Team That Refers to Indigenous Persons] Rule.
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/OTUS/redskins-rule-points-romney-victory/story?id=17642554
Of course, both of these things occurring could mean a tie.
Science!
Bill
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Richard Winger
Sent: Tuesday, November 06, 2012 1:48 PM
To: BradSmith; law-election at uci.edu; Arn Pearson
Subject: [EL] Guam has always voted for the winner
Brad was right. Guam started this in 1984 and has always voted for the person who won the election.
Richard Winger
415-922-9779
PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
--- On Tue, 11/6/12, Arn Pearson <APearson at commoncause.org<mailto:APearson at commoncause.org>> wrote:
From: Arn Pearson <APearson at commoncause.org<mailto:APearson at commoncause.org>>
Subject: RE: [EL] Guam presidential vote now counted; comparison with 2008 Guam vote
To: "Smith, Brad" <BSmith at law.capital.edu<mailto:BSmith at law.capital.edu>>, "richardwinger at yahoo.com<mailto:richardwinger at yahoo.com>" <richardwinger at yahoo.com<mailto:richardwinger at yahoo.com>>, "law-election at uci.edu<mailto:law-election at uci.edu>" <law-election at uci.edu<mailto:law-election at uci.edu>>
Date: Tuesday, November 6, 2012, 1:43 PM
Or, as they say, "As goes Guam, so goes American Samoa."
________________________________
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu<mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu> [law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] on behalf of Smith, Brad [BSmith at law.capital.edu]
Sent: Tuesday, November 06, 2012 4:19 PM
To: richardwinger at yahoo.com<mailto:richardwinger at yahoo.com>; law-election at uci.edu<mailto:law-election at uci.edu>
Subject: Re: [EL] Guam presidential vote now counted; comparison with 2008 Guam vote
As Guam goes, so goes the nation?
Bradley A. Smith
Josiah H. Blackmore II/Shirley M. Nault
Professor of Law
Capital University Law School
303 E. Broad St.
Columbus, OH 43215
614.236.6317
http://law.capital.edu/faculty/bios/bsmith.aspx
________________________________
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu<mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu> [law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] on behalf of Richard Winger [richardwinger at yahoo.com]
Sent: Tuesday, November 06, 2012 3:56 PM
To: law-election at uci.edu<mailto:law-election at uci.edu>
Subject: [EL] Guam presidential vote now counted; comparison with 2008 Guam vote
http://www.ballot-access.org/2012/11/06/guam-presidential-vote-now-counted-democrats-libertarians-gain-relative-to-2008/
Richard Winger
415-922-9779
PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
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Message: 11
Date: Tue, 6 Nov 2012 17:24:41 -0500 (EST)
From: bzall at aol.com
Subject: [EL] Non-citizen (and dog) registration in New Mexico
To: Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
Message-ID: <8CF8A84A526CE73-1B28-1DABC at webmail-d047.sysops.aol.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"
Returning to a question from a couple of weeks ago about voter registration fraud, particularly with non-citizens and whether they will be prosecuted (or suffer immigration-related sanctions), new stories are coming out this week. Last night, for example, New Mexico's KOB-TV had a very interesting extended piece on their own investigation:
http://www.kob.com/article/stories/S2824713.shtml
Excerpt:
It was a simple handwritten note left for the Sandoval County clerk that read, "I would like to have my voter registration card cancelled, please and thank you."
The note was short and polite, but it immediately raised red flags about the woman who left it.
It didn't take long before election officials learned the reason for the request: The woman was not a United States citizen.
A review of the woman?s voting record showed she had cast a ballot in nearly every election since registering as a Republican inside a Motor Vehicle Office in 2005.
She is not alone.
4 On Your Side also tracked down a Mexican National who has been voting since 1998, casting his ballot a total of 26 times.
Neither of these appears to be a product of an organized campaign, and neither will be prosecuted, since there is no evidence that they intended to break the law. This is unlike the situation Glenn Cook of the Las Vegas Review Journal found when he investigated non-citizen registration by the Culinary Union's local there: http://www.lvrj.com/opinion/how-many-noncitizens-are-registered-to-vote-177141441.html. But even in Las Vegas, the non-citizens are unlikely to be prosecuted because there was no intent on their part to violate the law.
Barnaby Zall
Of Counsel
Weinberg, Jacobs & Tolani, LLP
10411 Motor City Drive, Suite 500
Bethesda, MD 20817
301-231-6943 (direct dial)
bzall at aol.com
_____________________________________________________________
U.S. Treasury Circular 230 Notice
Any U.S. federal tax advice included in this communication (including
any attachments) was not intended or written to be used, and cannot be
used, for the purpose of (i) avoiding U.S. federal tax-related penalties
or (ii) promoting, marketing or recommending to another party any
tax-related matter addressed herein.
_____________________________________________________________
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Message: 12
Date: Tue, 6 Nov 2012 14:53:52 -0800
From: Rick Hasen <rhasen at law.uci.edu>
Subject: [EL] ELB Election Day Update # 3
To: "law-election at UCI.edu" <law-election at UCI.edu>
Message-ID: <50999500.8010606 at law.uci.edu>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
<http://electionlawblog.org/>
"More Provisional Ballots Will Be Supplied if Needed in Philly"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43643>
Posted on November 6, 2012 2:51 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43643>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
NBC reports.
<http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/politics/Provisional-Ballots-Philadelphia-Low-177542311.html>
Share
<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D43643&title=%E2%80%9CMore%20Provisional%20Ballots%20Will%20Be%20Supplied%20if%20Needed%20in%20Philly%E2%80%9D&description=>
Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
provisional ballots <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=67>, The Voting
Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
FOX News New Black Panther Obsession Returns
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43640>
Posted on November 6, 2012 2:43 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43640>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Nothing like scary Panthers
<http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012/11/fox-alternate-reality-new-black-panther-party>
to get out the scared white vote.
Share
<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D43640&title=FOX%20News%20New%20Black%20Panther%20Obsession%20Returns&description=>
Posted in The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> |
Comments Off
"The Power of the .0000055% Swing Voter"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43636>
Posted on November 6, 2012 2:40 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43636>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
WSJ Law Blog
<http://blogs.wsj.com/law/2012/11/06/the-power-of-the-0000055-swing-voter/>
on the electoral college.
Share
<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D43636&title=%E2%80%9CThe%20Power%20of%20the%20.0000055%25%20Swing%20Voter%E2%80%9D&description=>
Posted in electoral college <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=44> |
Comments Off
"New York Voters Compare New System to 'Third-World Country'"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43633>
Posted on November 6, 2012 2:30 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43633>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Roll Call:
<http://atr.rollcall.com/new-york-voters-compare-new-system-to-third-world-country/>
Even as some New York City residents waited in lines to take buses
to the polls, Mayor Michael Bloomberg said today there's a bigger
problem: the state's new voting machines.
"The system that we now have in place, instead of you going to one
place to get your card and then into a booth, you go to one place,
you get a folder, a card, a ballot, then you have to go to another
place to fill it out while people look over your shoulder, then
you've got to go to another place to stick that piece of paper into
a scanning machine," Bloomberg said at a news conference.
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18> |
Comments Off
"New Jersey Extends Email Voting to Friday"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43630>
Posted on November 6, 2012 2:18 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43630>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Politico reports <http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83421.html>.
Imagine if this were Ohio. We need a nationalelection day disaster
plan
<http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/10/30/how-many-more-near-election-disasters-before-congress-wakes-up.html>.
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18> |
Comments Off
"Judge in Texas Extends Polling Time"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43628>
Posted on November 6, 2012 2:16 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43628>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
NYT reports.
<http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/results/live-coverage#sha=e8fbe3591>
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18> |
Comments Off
"Registered Philly voters required to cast provisional ballots in
large numbers" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43625>
Posted on November 6, 2012 2:12 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43625>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Philly City Paper
<http://www.citypaper.net/blogs/nakedcity/177510161.html>: "The names of
registered Philadelphia voters are not showing up on voter rolls and
poll workers are instructing them to vote using provisional ballots,
according to voters and poll workers in West and North Philadelphia.
Provisional ballots,if they are counted, are not counted until up to
seven days after the election."
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18> |
Comments Off
"New Jersey's Vote-by-Email Meltdown"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43622>
Posted on November 6, 2012 2:02 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43622>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
/The Atlantic/ reports.
<http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/11/new-jerseys-vote-by-email-meltdown/264644/#.UJmG6k_6c2g.twitter>
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18> |
Comments Off
"Super PACs spend big for Romney in final weeks of campaign"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43619>
Posted on November 6, 2012 1:53 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43619>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
The Center for Public Integrity reports.
<http://www.publicintegrity.org/2012/11/06/11734/super-pacs-spend-big-romney-final-weeks-campaign>
Share
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Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10> |
Comments Off
"Foreign election officials amazed by trust-based U.S. voting
system" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43617>
Posted on November 6, 2012 1:52 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43617>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
The Cable reports
<http://thecable.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/11/06/foreign_election_officials_amazed_by_trust_based_us_voting_system>.
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18> |
Comments Off
--
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-8000
949.824.3072 - office
949.824.0495 - fax
rhasen at law.uci.edu
http://law.uci.edu/faculty/page1_r_hasen.html
http://electionlawblog.org
Now available: The Voting Wars: http://amzn.to/y22ZTv
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Message: 13
Date: Tue, 6 Nov 2012 16:32:57 -0800
From: Rick Hasen <rhasen at law.uci.edu>
Subject: [EL] ELB Election Day Update # 4
To: "law-election at UCI.edu" <law-election at UCI.edu>
Message-ID: <5099AC39.1080304 at law.uci.edu>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
<http://electionlawblog.org/>
"Thinking about Some Possible Ohio Numbers"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43663>
Posted on November 6, 2012 4:28 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43663>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Ned Foley blogs
<http://moritzlaw.osu.edu/electionlaw/comments/index.php?ID=10135>.
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
provisional ballots <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=67> | Comments Off
"Early Voting in Florida 2012? <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43660>
Posted on November 6, 2012 4:24 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43660>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Updated (and to be updated again) paper by Herron and Smith
<http://www.dartmouth.edu/%7Eherron/HerronSmithFloridaEarly2012.pdf>.
Abstract:
In this paper we examine early voting patterns in the days preceding
the 2012 General Election. Drawing on the Florida statewide voter
registration database (as of October 1, 2012) and 67 county-level
early voting files made public by the Florida Department of State,
we disaggregate by party and by racial and ethnic group the 2.4
million votes cast in person before November 6, 2012. We find that
early voting was heaviest on the final Saturday of early voting and
that racial and ethnic minorities, as well as individuals registered
as Democrats and individuals registered as "No Party Affiliation,"
were disproportionately more likely than whites and
Republicans respectively, to cast ballots on both the first Sunday
and the final Saturday of early voting. We also find that votes cast
during the very early morning hours of Sunday, November 4,
in Miami-Dade and Palm Beach Counties---locations that suffered from
exceedingly long lines on Saturday, November 3---were
disproportionately cast by black voters. Insofar as the
longest early voting lines appear to have occurred on the day in
which minority voter turnout was the greatest, it appears that
minority voters, and in particular black voters, have borne heavily
the burden of House Bill 1355, a piece of election-reform
legislation passed by the Florida state legislature in 2011, which
among other things reduced the early voting period in Florida
from 14 to eight days and eliminated early voting on the final
Sunday before a Tuesday election.
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>, voting
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=31> | Comments Off
"Photo ID ballot question awaits answer"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43657>
Posted on November 6, 2012 4:19 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43657>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Important Minnesota vote.
<http://www.startribune.com/politics/statelocal/177543781.html?page=all&prepage=1&c=y#continue>
Share
<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D43657&title=%E2%80%9CPhoto%20ID%20ballot%20question%20awaits%20answer%E2%80%9D&description=>
Posted in The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>, voter id
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=9> | Comments Off
"'Massive Confusion' in Pennsylvania, New Jersey a 'Hot Bed' of
Problems" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43654>
Posted on November 6, 2012 3:26 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43654>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Roll Call reports
<http://atr.rollcall.com/massive-confusion-in-pennsylvania-new-jersey-a-hot-bed-of-problems/>.
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18> |
Comments Off
"Voting Glitches, Partisan Disputes Mar Vote"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43652>
Posted on November 6, 2012 3:25 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43652>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
WSJ reports.
<http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204349404578102971041065246.html>
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
"Top Ohio Democrat Warns On Cincinnati Balloting"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43649>
Posted on November 6, 2012 3:17 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43649>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Buzzfeed:
<http://www.buzzfeed.com/chrisgeidner/top-ohio-democrat-warns-on-cincinnati-balloting>
Ohio's state Senate Minority Leader, Democratic Sen. Eric Kearney,
complained Tuesday that poor voters are being "pushed" to cast
provisional ballots in inner-city Cincinnati, saying people in the
traditionally African-American, poor neighborhoods are being
"pushed" to cast the alternative ballots that won't be counted for
at least 11 days.
"People are being pushed to provisional ballots unnecessarily when
they should be able to vote a regular ballot --- the percentage is
way up at certain key polling locations," Kearney told BuzzFeed of
inner-city locations in Cincinnati on Tuesday.
A spokesman from Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted's office,
however, said they had not received any complaints regarding the use
of provisional ballots in Cincinnati.
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
provisional ballots <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=67>, The Voting
Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
Ari Berman Roundup of Voter Problems in OH, PH, FL
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43646>
Posted on November 6, 2012 3:08 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43646>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Here.
<http://www.thenation.com/blog/171073/voter-suppression-election-day-key-swing-states#>
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
--
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-8000
949.824.3072 - office
949.824.0495 - fax
rhasen at law.uci.edu
http://law.uci.edu/faculty/page1_r_hasen.html
http://electionlawblog.org
Now available: The Voting Wars: http://amzn.to/y22ZTv
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Message: 14
Date: Tue, 6 Nov 2012 20:17:52 -0500
From: Joseph Lorenzo Hall <joehall at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [EL] Video of PA touchscreen vote flipping in
presidential race, apparently not miscalibration
To: Paul Lehto <lehto.paul at gmail.com>
Cc: Election Law <law-election at uci.edu>
Message-ID:
<CACDmtYa+td0abWhJQUd1FPoFO-7D6F7dDpn7MWMPbTMXdBAK4g at mail.gmail.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
Quick note: I've been talking with the voter who took this video and he
points out that the first video is his and he has no idea who the second
video is from. I was quoted on Gawker -- which I did not know is apparently
such a big deal -- talking about this [1] and the only thing I can say
definitively is that this is the best evidence of "vote-flipping" we've
seen. Nothing makes me think it's malicious -- extraordinary claims require
extraordinary evidence -- but I would note that a clever attacker would
make their attack fail like a commonly-reported type of error (although a
real clever attacker would not allow it to flip more than a few times so
that a poll worker wouldn't see it when called over).
[1]:
https://gawker.com/5958114/an-expert-weighs-in-on-that-viral-reddit-voter-fraud-video
On Tue, Nov 6, 2012 at 2:46 PM, Paul Lehto <lehto.paul at gmail.com> wrote:
> Here's an 18 second video snippet of a Pennsylvania voter attempting to
> vote for Obama but Romney lights up on the screen instead. It's hard-to-get
> evidence in light of the fact that most states make it illegal to possess
> cameras or video equipment at polling places, (perhaps PA does as well) so
> evidence like this is hard to come by relative to how frequently it is
> heard.18 second highlight of Obama attempt: http://www.youtube.com/
> watch?v=QdpGd74DrBM
> Longer version: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oOj2IPulNPA
> In the longer version from which this snippet is taken, it's stated that
> the voter tested to see if it was "miscalibration". However, when voting
> for the Libertarian candidate below Obama (since Obama is below Romney) the
> machine correctly lights up and check marks Jill Stein's name, the
> Libertarian candidate, unlike what appears on the screen for the attempted
> Obama vote. So, apparently the problem is not miscalibration of a half
> inch or so.
>
> The miscalibration "test" does not appear on screen, but it's stated that
> the voter will submit their video for some sort of authentication. But
> given the *prima facie* evidence here of changed votes without
> miscalibration being a facile explanation, it can not simply be assumed
> that when a machine lights up and check marks a certain candidate that
> this necessarily translates into an actual, recorded, electronic vote for
> that candidate, because the naked presumption that the voting machine
> obeys only the voter's command and not anything else is shattered - at
> least for this voter and thousands of others. This kind of touch screen
> behavior has been a top complaint in the past couple presidential
> elections.
>
> Paul Lehto, J.D.
>
> PS I don't assert a fraud case per se, though this is the seed of a
> potential case. Instead, the problem is bigger than fraud, and basically
> nonpartisan: because literally no human being has personal knowledge of
> whether vote totals are correct, and because results of elections are not
> reproducible and computerized counts are both invisible and secret, there
> is no scientific basis for confidence in the reported results, no matter
> what they are and no matter who wins, whether it's my favored candidates or
> not (and I do vote).
> This is all because of the HAVA-based approach to addressing the perceived
> problems of ambiguous voter intent evidence symbolized by the hanging chad
> from Florida 2000: On account of the problems of ambiguous voter intent
> evidence in the agonizing over hanging chads, let's ELIMINATE ALL evidence
> of voter intent by using touch screens. Brilliant.
>
> Rather than claiming the views of critics "cause harm" (apparently to the
> necessary "confidence" or "faith" in secret vote counting), we ought to
> recognize how terribly fragile the system is and fix it, restoring
> transparent public vote counts. When a person or group comes along with
> enough power and media access, they will be able, with not all that much
> evidence, to invalidate election results because as little evidence as
> there may be for fraud, there's MORE evidence of fraud (even if a
> scintilla) than there is in the utterly conclusory and magical election
> results that pop out of black box computers.
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Law-election mailing list
> Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
> http://department-lists.uci.edu/mailman/listinfo/law-election
>
--
https://josephhall.org/
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Message: 15
Date: Tue, 6 Nov 2012 19:58:23 -0800
From: Rick Hasen <rhasen at law.uci.edu>
Subject: [EL] ELB Election Day Update # 5
To: "law-election at UCI.edu" <law-election at UCI.edu>
Message-ID: <5099DC5F.6000901 at law.uci.edu>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
"Hours after the close of polls, hundreds still waiting to cast
ballots in Miami-Dade" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43674>
Posted on November 6, 2012 7:57 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43674>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Florida
<http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/11/06/3084088/polls-open-in-south-florida.html>,
the national embarrassment.
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18> |
Comments Off
We May Have an Automatic Recount in FLA Presidential Race...
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43672>
Posted on November 6, 2012 7:55 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43672>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
but it may not matter for the electoral college outcome (thank goodness).
Share
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Posted in Uncategorized <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1> | Comments Off
Alex Keyssar on Our Voting Problems
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43669>
Posted on November 6, 2012 7:32 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43669>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Here in the NYT
<http://campaignstops.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/06/e-day/?hp>.
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
"Chris Matthews: U.S. like 'third world country' on early voting
laws" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43666>
Posted on November 6, 2012 6:47 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43666>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Politico reports
<http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2012/11/matthews-us-like-third-world-country-on-early-voting-148716.html>.
Share
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Posted in Uncategorized <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1> | Comments Off
--
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-8000
949.824.3072 - office
949.824.0495 - fax
rhasen at law.uci.edu
http://law.uci.edu/faculty/page1_r_hasen.html
http://electionlawblog.org
Now available: The Voting Wars: http://amzn.to/y22ZTv
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Message: 16
Date: Tue, 6 Nov 2012 20:09:43 -0800 (PST)
From: Richard Winger <richardwinger at yahoo.com>
Subject: [EL] Arizona defeats top-two by 2:1
To: law-election at UCI.EDU
Message-ID:
<1352261383.96190.YahooMailClassic at web140402.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"
http://www.ballot-access.org/2012/11/06/arizona-top-two-initiative-overwhelmingly-defeated/
Richard Winger
415-922-9779
PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
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Message: 17
Date: Tue, 6 Nov 2012 23:52:30 -0500
From: Steve Hoersting <hoersting at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [EL] Super PACs and the Presidency
To: law-election at uci.edu
Message-ID:
<CACBduo-yFvHEbrrqxy4o7+9-YaN+uqpZJ7Q5SYkBZBepuN2ppg at mail.gmail.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
To those who read this e-mail as predicting a Romney win, fair enough: If
that is the way you read it, I was incorrect.
But as to my main point (and one directed at an election law list) -- to
not blame the Super PACs; they were never the President's problem -- I
stand by it. There were always plenty of independent players and funds
supporting Team Obama.
I still believe the President ebbed in his reelection effort -- and no one
doubts that today's race was close; too close for a well-liked incumbent --
because of an Obama agenda of what I called earlier today and continue to
call "out-sized collectivism."
Congratulations to the compliance team and strategists at Perkins Coie,
Steve
On Tue, Nov 6, 2012 at 11:10 AM, Steve Hoersting <hoersting at gmail.com>wrote:
> Should, by this time tomorrow, President Obama fail to win re-election, as
> now seems the case, many will point to a point made by *Politico* on
> August 20th of this year:
>
> Obama has himself to blame for what has, arguably, been the greatest
> unforced error of his political career: his team's failure to adequately
> form a strategy to deal with the avalanche of unregulated cash raining down
> on him from GOP and Romney-allied Super PACs.
>
>
> As one who started blogging against the FEC political-committee
> regulations that would kill the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth and six other
> notable organizations on the Right and Left, and as one who worked on some
> of the cases that would bring Americans the "Super PAC" -- and there were
> four or five cases responsible, not just two -- it is tempting to want to
> echo emphatically the *Politico* commentary: *You're darn right.*
>
> But the commentary doesn't hold. While I understand the role of freed
> speech in this election, and the importance of increasingly alternative
> committees speaking in an increasing alternative media, I recognize that
> the real reason the President ebbs in his reelection effort is his
> inability to cloak an out-sized collectivism in American garb.
>
> No one could pull that off. It is regrettable he tried,
>
> --
> Stephen M. Hoersting
>
> http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/79867.html
>
>
--
Stephen M. Hoersting
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Message: 18
Date: Tue, 6 Nov 2012 22:16:04 -0800 (PST)
From: Richard Winger <richardwinger at yahoo.com>
Subject: [EL] Mitt Romney and Americans Elect; what might have been
To: law-election at uci.edu
Message-ID:
<1352268964.33339.YahooMailClassic at web140405.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"
http://www.ballot-access.org/2012/11/06/would-mitt-romney-have-been-better-off-running-as-the-americans-elect-nominee/
Richard Winger
415-922-9779
PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
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Message: 19
Date: Tue, 6 Nov 2012 22:48:13 -0800
From: Rick Hasen <rhasen at law.uci.edu>
Subject: [EL] ELB Election Day Final Update
To: "law-election at UCI.edu" <law-election at UCI.edu>
Message-ID: <509A042D.4040301 at law.uci.edu>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
<http://electionlawblog.org/>
Quote of the Day <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43692>
Posted on November 6, 2012 10:44 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43692> by Rick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
"Whether you voted for the first time, or waited in line for a very long
time---by the way, we have to fix that."
---Barack Obama, in his acceptance speech.
We are ready with ideas to fix that, and it should start with
congressional legislation. Let's put it on the agenda.
Share
<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D43692&title=Quote%20of%20the%20Day&description=>
Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
Huge News: Voter ID Amendment Poised to Lose in Minnesota
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43689>
Posted on November 6, 2012 10:14 pm
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43689> by Rick Hasen
<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
MPR reports
<http://live.mprnews.org/Event/Election_2012_The_MPR_News_live_blog/56404593>
the near concession. This is a huge deal. Before this year, voter id
had been supported in public by both Democratic and Republican voters
(though opposed by Democratic elites). This is the year that voter id
and the voting wars more generally broke through as a major political
issue on the Democratic side on the left.
The defeat of this amendment means that the dispute over ID in the
public is now more likely to reflect the split among elites.
More on the backlash over Republican overreaching on ID, early voting,
etc. to come.
Share
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Posted in The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>, voter id
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=9> | Comments Off
"Apparent Obama victory makes major post-election legal challenges
unlikely" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43686>
Posted on November 6, 2012 9:24 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43686>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
/National Law Journal/ reports.
<http://www.law.com/jsp/nlj/PubArticleNLJ.jsp?id=1202577540832&Apparent_Obama_victory_makes_major_postelection_legal_challenges_unlikely&slreturn=20121007002245>
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
OK People <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43683>
Posted on November 6, 2012 8:46 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43683>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
You can go back to ignoring the abysmal problems with our elections
until 2016.
If you care please stick around this blog
Thanks for reading.
Share
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Posted in The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> |
Comments Off
"In swing states, voting is marked by heightened vigilance"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43680>
Posted on November 6, 2012 8:17 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43680>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
The LA Times reports.
<http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation-world/la-pn-swing-state-voting-glitches-20121106,0,3903431.story>
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
"Which State's Voters Had To Wait the Longest, According to Their
Tweets?" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43677>
Posted on November 6, 2012 8:07 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43677>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Interesting
<http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2012/11/06/voting_wait_times_which_state_s_voters_faced_the_longest_lines.html>.
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18> |
Comments Off
--
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-8000
949.824.3072 - office
949.824.0495 - fax
rhasen at law.uci.edu
http://law.uci.edu/faculty/page1_r_hasen.html
http://electionlawblog.org
Now available: The Voting Wars: http://amzn.to/y22ZTv
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Message: 20
Date: Wed, 7 Nov 2012 02:19:50 -0500
From: "Goldfeder, Jerry H." <jgoldfeder at stroock.com>
Subject: Re: [EL] ELB Election Day Final Update
To: Rick Hasen <rhasen at law.uci.edu>
Cc: "law-election at UCI.edu" <law-election at uci.edu>
Message-ID: <B45C780A-20A7-493A-A0F3-5C4216400C05 at stroock.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"
Rick is right. Unless there is a focused and sustained effort to address our very real voting issues, they will continue to fester and corrode our electoral process.
Jerry H. Goldfeder
Stroock & Stroock & Lavan
180 Maiden Lane
New York, NY 10038
212-806-5857
917-680-3132
JGoldfeder at Stroock.com<mailto:JGoldfeder at Stroock.com>
www.stroock.com/goldfeder<http://www.stroock.com/goldfeder>
On Nov 7, 2012, at 1:49 AM, "Rick Hasen" <rhasen at law.uci.edu<mailto:rhasen at law.uci.edu>> wrote:
<http://electionlawblog.org/>
Quote of the Day<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43692>
Posted on November 6, 2012 10:44 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43692> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
?Whether you voted for the first time, or waited in line for a very long time?by the way, we have to fix that.?
?Barack Obama, in his acceptance speech.
We are ready with ideas to fix that, and it should start with congressional legislation. Let?s put it on the agenda.
<share_save_171_16.png><http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D43692&title=Quote%20of%20the%20Day&description=>
Posted in election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, The Voting Wars<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
Huge News: Voter ID Amendment Poised to Lose in Minnesota<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43689>
Posted on November 6, 2012 10:14 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43689> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
MPR reports<http://live.mprnews.org/Event/Election_2012_The_MPR_News_live_blog/56404593> the near concession. This is a huge deal. Before this year, voter id had been supported in public by both Democratic and Republican voters (though opposed by Democratic elites). This is the year that voter id and the voting wars more generally broke through as a major political issue on the Democratic side on the left.
The defeat of this amendment means that the dispute over ID in the public is now more likely to reflect the split among elites.
More on the backlash over Republican overreaching on ID, early voting, etc. to come.
<share_save_171_16.png><http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D43689&title=Huge%20News%3A%20Voter%20ID%20Amendment%20Poised%20to%20Lose%20in%20Minnesota&description=>
Posted in The Voting Wars<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>, voter id<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=9> | Comments Off
?Apparent Obama victory makes major post-election legal challenges unlikely?<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43686>
Posted on November 6, 2012 9:24 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43686> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
National Law Journal reports.<http://www.law.com/jsp/nlj/PubArticleNLJ.jsp?id=1202577540832&Apparent_Obama_victory_makes_major_postelection_legal_challenges_unlikely&slreturn=20121007002245>
<share_save_171_16.png><http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D43686&title=%E2%80%9CApparent%20Obama%20victory%20makes%20major%20post-election%20legal%20challenges%20unlikely%E2%80%9D&description=>
Posted in election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, The Voting Wars<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
OK People<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43683>
Posted on November 6, 2012 8:46 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43683> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
You can go back to ignoring the abysmal problems with our elections until 2016.
If you care please stick around this blog
Thanks for reading.
<share_save_171_16.png><http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D43683&title=OK%20People&description=>
Posted in The Voting Wars<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
?In swing states, voting is marked by heightened vigilance?<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43680>
Posted on November 6, 2012 8:17 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43680> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
The LA Times reports.<http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation-world/la-pn-swing-state-voting-glitches-20121106,0,3903431.story>
<share_save_171_16.png><http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D43680&title=%E2%80%9CIn%20swing%20states%2C%20voting%20is%20marked%20by%20heightened%20vigilance%E2%80%9D&description=>
Posted in election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>, The Voting Wars<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
?Which State?s Voters Had To Wait the Longest, According to Their Tweets??<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43677>
Posted on November 6, 2012 8:07 pm<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43677> by Rick Hasen<http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Interesting<http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2012/11/06/voting_wait_times_which_state_s_voters_faced_the_longest_lines.html>.
<share_save_171_16.png><http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D43677&title=%E2%80%9CWhich%20State%E2%80%99s%20Voters%20Had%20To%20Wait%20the%20Longest%2C%20According%20to%20Their%20Tweets%3F%E2%80%9D&description=>
Posted in election administration<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18> | Comments Off
--
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-8000
949.824.3072 - office
949.824.0495 - fax
rhasen at law.uci.edu<mailto:rhasen at law.uci.edu>
http://law.uci.edu/faculty/page1_r_hasen.html
http://electionlawblog.org
Now available: The Voting Wars: http://amzn.to/y22ZTv
_______________________________________________
Law-election mailing list
Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu<mailto:Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu>
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------------------------------
Message: 21
Date: Wed, 7 Nov 2012 03:44:08 -0500
From: Jack Santucci <jms346 at georgetown.edu>
Subject: [EL] Twitter "analysis" of waiting in line
To: "law-election at uci.edu" <law-election at uci.edu>
Message-ID:
<CAB1bumBN4iRo=o39EWYdMJhJiNgNd_qOmR_7JPZ9SQ420=0ZoA at mail.gmail.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8"
>
> I'd like to see those N-counts weighted in some way. Perhaps by jurisdiction-wide averages of the eminently vague but ubiquitous "sophistication" measures we throw around in political science. Or even just a tweets-per-capita measure. Or the time at which "Twitterati" tended to show up to vote.
>
> I worked the polls today in DC. The hours of 7-11 AM saw an unusually high number, in my two-year experience, of voters ready to pounce about long lines, various rare situations in which an ID was necessary, and so forth. Most complaints were both aggressive and half-informed/developed. Most probably came from people who wake up at 4:30 AM to jog. (No offense. You're better people than I on some metrics.)
>
> Twitter is the IRC chat room of our time. Take it with a grain of salt.
>
> But don't let me generalize from an N_precincts of 1.
>
> Jack
>
>
> On Nov 7, 2012, at 1:49, Rick Hasen <rhasen at law.uci.edu> wrote:
>
> <http://electionlawblog.org/>
> ?Which State?s Voters Had To Wait the Longest, According to Their Tweets?? <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43677>
> Posted on November 6, 2012 8:07 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43677> by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
>
> Interesting <http://www.slate.com/blogs/future_tense/2012/11/06/voting_wait_times_which_state_s_voters_faced_the_longest_lines.html>.
> <share_save_171_16.png> <http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D43677&title=%E2%80%9CWhich%20State%E2%80%99s%20Voters%20Had%20To%20Wait%20the%20Longest%2C%20According%20to%20Their%20Tweets%3F%E2%80%9D&description=>
> Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18> | Comments Off
>
> --
> Rick Hasen
> Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
> UC Irvine School of Law
> 401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
> Irvine, CA 92697-8000
> 949.824.3072 - office
> 949.824.0495 - faxrhasen at law.uci.eduhttp://law.uci.edu/faculty/page1_r_hasen.htmlhttp://electionlawblog.org
> Now available: The Voting Wars: http://amzn.to/y22ZTv
>
> _______________________________________________
> Law-election mailing list
> Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
> http://department-lists.uci.edu/mailman/listinfo/law-election
>
>
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Message: 22
Date: Wed, 7 Nov 2012 02:25:34 -0800 (PST)
From: Richard Winger <richardwinger at yahoo.com>
Subject: [EL] Republicans only won 8 US Senate seats; smallest for
either since 1964
To: law-election at uci.edu
Message-ID:
<1352283934.51560.YahooMailClassic at web140404.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii"
http://www.ballot-access.org/2012/11/07/new-england-states-elect-two-independent-u-s-senators-zero-republican-u-s-senators/
Richard Winger
415-922-9779
PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
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Message: 23
Date: Wed, 7 Nov 2012 08:32:35 -0500
From: Mark Schmitt <schmitt.mark at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [EL] Super PACs and the Presidency
To: "law-election at uci.edu" <law-election at uci.edu>
Message-ID:
<CAAPHPXzRai7fx5+X6_50dcN5LXJY8c1e+T-O+j6Vv5fjJrvw9w at mail.gmail.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
I agree with that point, Steve, and always have.
I would suggest, however, that one reason that the pro-Romney SuperPACs and
c(4)'s had less impact than some expected is that they seem to have put all
their money on broadcast media and to a lesser extent robocalls and mail.
What if some of the money had been put toward voter mobilization efforts,
targetted at key likely-Romney constituencies? Much of the Democratic
non-campaign spending takes this form.
Why didn't that happen? My guess is that it's a combination of two things:
Rich donors want something they can see, like an ad that they imagine will
reveal that Kenyan socialist for what he is and destroy him, rather than
the amorphous idea that some people are out there getting people to vote.
And second, the operatives who created the SuperPACs and c(4)'s are getting
very, very rich off of media-buying commissions (richer than they would get
if they were actually working for the campaign, which followed Obama's lead
from 2008 in cracking down on commissions), and had no interest in giving
that up. Hence, as pointed out in another thread, they were essentially
burning off money on national ad buys in the last week.
If it weren't for greed, Citizens United and SpeechNow might have had more
impact.
Mark Schmitt
Senior Fellow, The Roosevelt Institute <http://www.rooseveltinstitute.org/>
202/246-2350
gchat or Skype: schmitt.mark
twitter: mschmitt9
On Tue, Nov 6, 2012 at 11:52 PM, Steve Hoersting <hoersting at gmail.com>wrote:
> To those who read this e-mail as predicting a Romney win, fair enough: If
> that is the way you read it, I was incorrect.
>
> But as to my main point (and one directed at an election law list) -- to
> not blame the Super PACs; they were never the President's problem -- I
> stand by it. There were always plenty of independent players and funds
> supporting Team Obama.
>
> I still believe the President ebbed in his reelection effort -- and no one
> doubts that today's race was close; too close for a well-liked incumbent --
> because of an Obama agenda of what I called earlier today and continue to
> call "out-sized collectivism."
>
> Congratulations to the compliance team and strategists at Perkins Coie,
>
> Steve
>
> On Tue, Nov 6, 2012 at 11:10 AM, Steve Hoersting <hoersting at gmail.com>wrote:
>
>> Should, by this time tomorrow, President Obama fail to win re-election,
>> as now seems the case, many will point to a point made by *Politico* on
>> August 20th of this year:
>>
>> Obama has himself to blame for what has, arguably, been the greatest
>> unforced error of his political career: his team's failure to adequately
>> form a strategy to deal with the avalanche of unregulated cash raining down
>> on him from GOP and Romney-allied Super PACs.
>>
>>
>> As one who started blogging against the FEC political-committee
>> regulations that would kill the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth and six other
>> notable organizations on the Right and Left, and as one who worked on some
>> of the cases that would bring Americans the "Super PAC" -- and there were
>> four or five cases responsible, not just two -- it is tempting to want to
>> echo emphatically the *Politico* commentary: *You're darn right.*
>>
>> But the commentary doesn't hold. While I understand the role of freed
>> speech in this election, and the importance of increasingly alternative
>> committees speaking in an increasing alternative media, I recognize that
>> the real reason the President ebbs in his reelection effort is his
>> inability to cloak an out-sized collectivism in American garb.
>>
>> No one could pull that off. It is regrettable he tried,
>>
>> --
>> Stephen M. Hoersting
>>
>> http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/79867.html
>>
>>
>
>
> --
> Stephen M. Hoersting
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Law-election mailing list
> Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
> http://department-lists.uci.edu/mailman/listinfo/law-election
>
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Message: 24
Date: Wed, 7 Nov 2012 09:44:57 -0500
From: Steve Hoersting <hoersting at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [EL] Super PACs and the Presidency
To: Mark Schmitt <schmitt.mark at gmail.com>
Cc: "law-election at uci.edu" <law-election at uci.edu>
Message-ID:
<CACBduo-Pe3FgRSH0jPbeSNUbxQ_CtTETL06XVVEVbVT3MrjLUA at mail.gmail.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
Good morning, Mark,
I do agree that this election appears to have turned on voter mobilization
efforts. The Democrats got exactly what they needed, where they needed it,
and nothing more until the California returns came in. Very different from
the 2008 general election. I think the degree of that will be understood in
time.
I've also surmised for years (without knowing quite how to confirm) that
the Left is better at mobilization not because they have less money but
because they have more persons, actual individuals, in their coalition to
work maps, drive vans, and walk people to the polls -- and have had for a
number of cycles now.
Ground game funded by Super PACs and c4s is entirely new to the Right. And
I have often thought that Republicans run ads because they don't know whom
to finance to knock on doors. A study is needed there to see whether I am
right about that as well. Republican party-oriented Victory programs are
effective enough, and their micro-targeting data is good. But that model
needs to be transmitted to outside groups motivated to use them, and to
multiply exponentially the efforts of the party committee or the Republican
party committee will be swamped.
As to your second point, which is far less charitable, I've heard the
stories over the years of mail shops putting all their receipts into
salaries and overhead.
But I believe the people running newly minted Super PACs and expanded c4s
desperately want to win elections. This is true for ideological reasons: no
one can say Steven Law didn't have what it took to have become a
Wall-Street trader rather than a policy operative. But it is true for that
base reason you ascribe to the Right's failure: Any Super PAC seen lining
its pockets rather than winning will be punished by those dreaded markets
the left tends to discount in other spheres.
Again, I believe the Right runs the ad war because it doesn't know whom to
finance for large scale ground game. Ads over the air are meant to *find* a
coalition the Left has already found and can fund directly: people willing
to get off the couch. Who are the labor unions of the Right... or other
such coalitions? You can tell from this post that I don't know.
But I would imagine that the Drew Ryuns and Matt Kibbes of the world are
awaking this morning to figure it out. Let's let the Super PACs work awhile.
***
I will add one more point: If, as some pundits were suggesting last night,
markets, individual liberty and speech rights are an "aging, white-male
thing" that Republicans should rethink -- because, after all, what "the
folks" really want from their politicians is *stuff* -- we are all doomed,
each of us. These principles are universal; the natural right of all men
and women. I hope "diversity" doesn't come to equal statism, as I fear it
might in the near term.
Immigration does need rethinking. You saw that tension in speeches at the
RNC last September -- and I saw, on Twitter, that Jeb Bush and Clint Bolick
have begun with a new book.
Steve
On Wed, Nov 7, 2012 at 8:32 AM, Mark Schmitt <schmitt.mark at gmail.com> wrote:
> I agree with that point, Steve, and always have.
>
> I would suggest, however, that one reason that the pro-Romney SuperPACs
> and c(4)'s had less impact than some expected is that they seem to have put
> all their money on broadcast media and to a lesser extent robocalls and
> mail. What if some of the money had been put toward voter mobilization
> efforts, targetted at key likely-Romney constituencies? Much of the
> Democratic non-campaign spending takes this form.
>
> Why didn't that happen? My guess is that it's a combination of two things:
> Rich donors want something they can see, like an ad that they imagine will
> reveal that Kenyan socialist for what he is and destroy him, rather than
> the amorphous idea that some people are out there getting people to vote.
> And second, the operatives who created the SuperPACs and c(4)'s are getting
> very, very rich off of media-buying commissions (richer than they would get
> if they were actually working for the campaign, which followed Obama's lead
> from 2008 in cracking down on commissions), and had no interest in giving
> that up. Hence, as pointed out in another thread, they were essentially
> burning off money on national ad buys in the last week.
>
> If it weren't for greed, Citizens United and SpeechNow might have had more
> impact.
>
> Mark Schmitt
> Senior Fellow, The Roosevelt Institute<http://www.rooseveltinstitute.org/>
> 202/246-2350
> gchat or Skype: schmitt.mark
> twitter: mschmitt9
>
>
>
> On Tue, Nov 6, 2012 at 11:52 PM, Steve Hoersting <hoersting at gmail.com>wrote:
>
>> To those who read this e-mail as predicting a Romney win, fair enough: If
>> that is the way you read it, I was incorrect.
>>
>> But as to my main point (and one directed at an election law list) -- to
>> not blame the Super PACs; they were never the President's problem -- I
>> stand by it. There were always plenty of independent players and funds
>> supporting Team Obama.
>>
>> I still believe the President ebbed in his reelection effort -- and no
>> one doubts that today's race was close; too close for a well-liked
>> incumbent -- because of an Obama agenda of what I called earlier today and
>> continue to call "out-sized collectivism."
>>
>> Congratulations to the compliance team and strategists at Perkins Coie,
>>
>> Steve
>>
>> On Tue, Nov 6, 2012 at 11:10 AM, Steve Hoersting <hoersting at gmail.com>wrote:
>>
>>> Should, by this time tomorrow, President Obama fail to win re-election,
>>> as now seems the case, many will point to a point made by *Politico* on
>>> August 20th of this year:
>>>
>>> Obama has himself to blame for what has, arguably, been the greatest
>>> unforced error of his political career: his team's failure to adequately
>>> form a strategy to deal with the avalanche of unregulated cash raining down
>>> on him from GOP and Romney-allied Super PACs.
>>>
>>>
>>> As one who started blogging against the FEC political-committee
>>> regulations that would kill the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth and six other
>>> notable organizations on the Right and Left, and as one who worked on some
>>> of the cases that would bring Americans the "Super PAC" -- and there were
>>> four or five cases responsible, not just two -- it is tempting to want to
>>> echo emphatically the *Politico* commentary: *You're darn right.*
>>>
>>> But the commentary doesn't hold. While I understand the role of freed
>>> speech in this election, and the importance of increasingly alternative
>>> committees speaking in an increasing alternative media, I recognize that
>>> the real reason the President ebbs in his reelection effort is his
>>> inability to cloak an out-sized collectivism in American garb.
>>>
>>> No one could pull that off. It is regrettable he tried,
>>>
>>> --
>>> Stephen M. Hoersting
>>>
>>> http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/79867.html
>>>
>>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> Stephen M. Hoersting
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> Law-election mailing list
>> Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
>> http://department-lists.uci.edu/mailman/listinfo/law-election
>>
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Law-election mailing list
> Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
> http://department-lists.uci.edu/mailman/listinfo/law-election
>
--
Stephen M. Hoersting
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Message: 25
Date: Wed, 7 Nov 2012 10:09:16 -0500
From: Mark Schmitt <schmitt.mark at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [EL] Super PACs and the Presidency
To: "law-election at uci.edu" <law-election at uci.edu>
Message-ID:
<CAAPHPXxOiKaBG4iWxTDLPHBT5=xkz=mOSo_KjKt2szB=SYSHPA at mail.gmail.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
"Any Super PAC seen lining its pockets rather than winning will be punished
by those dreaded markets the left tends to discount in other spheres."
I don't discount markets; I think markets are awesome. However, markets
with asymmetric information are not likely to be that efficient. The donors
to SuperPACs typically aren't sophisticated enough to know whether they are
being ripped off or not. And in every cycle, there seem to be new big
donors. So it's the equivalent of the restaurants near a big tourist hotel
(like in Woodley Park in DC) that don't have to be very good because their
customers are unlikely to return anyway, and they'll have new ones next
weekend. Consultants managed to rip off campaigns on media buys for years
and years before 2008; mega-donors like Adelson are easier marks.
Mark Schmitt
Senior Fellow, The Roosevelt Institute <http://www.rooseveltinstitute.org/>
202/246-2350
gchat or Skype: schmitt.mark
twitter: mschmitt9
On Wed, Nov 7, 2012 at 9:44 AM, Steve Hoersting <hoersting at gmail.com> wrote:
> Good morning, Mark,
>
> I do agree that this election appears to have turned on voter mobilization
> efforts. The Democrats got exactly what they needed, where they needed it,
> and nothing more until the California returns came in. Very different from
> the 2008 general election. I think the degree of that will be understood in
> time.
>
> I've also surmised for years (without knowing quite how to confirm) that
> the Left is better at mobilization not because they have less money but
> because they have more persons, actual individuals, in their coalition to
> work maps, drive vans, and walk people to the polls -- and have had for a
> number of cycles now.
>
> Ground game funded by Super PACs and c4s is entirely new to the Right. And
> I have often thought that Republicans run ads because they don't know whom
> to finance to knock on doors. A study is needed there to see whether I am
> right about that as well. Republican party-oriented Victory programs are
> effective enough, and their micro-targeting data is good. But that model
> needs to be transmitted to outside groups motivated to use them, and to
> multiply exponentially the efforts of the party committee or the Republican
> party committee will be swamped.
>
> As to your second point, which is far less charitable, I've heard the
> stories over the years of mail shops putting all their receipts into
> salaries and overhead.
>
> But I believe the people running newly minted Super PACs and expanded c4s
> desperately want to win elections. This is true for ideological reasons: no
> one can say Steven Law didn't have what it took to have become a
> Wall-Street trader rather than a policy operative. But it is true for that
> base reason you ascribe to the Right's failure: Any Super PAC seen lining
> its pockets rather than winning will be punished by those dreaded markets
> the left tends to discount in other spheres.
>
> Again, I believe the Right runs the ad war because it doesn't know whom to
> finance for large scale ground game. Ads over the air are meant to *find*a coalition the Left has already found and can fund directly: people
> willing to get off the couch. Who are the labor unions of the Right... or
> other such coalitions? You can tell from this post that I don't know.
>
> But I would imagine that the Drew Ryuns and Matt Kibbes of the world are
> awaking this morning to figure it out. Let's let the Super PACs work awhile.
>
> ***
>
> I will add one more point: If, as some pundits were suggesting last night,
> markets, individual liberty and speech rights are an "aging, white-male
> thing" that Republicans should rethink -- because, after all, what "the
> folks" really want from their politicians is *stuff* -- we are all
> doomed, each of us. These principles are universal; the natural right of
> all men and women. I hope "diversity" doesn't come to equal statism, as I
> fear it might in the near term.
>
> Immigration does need rethinking. You saw that tension in speeches at the
> RNC last September -- and I saw, on Twitter, that Jeb Bush and Clint Bolick
> have begun with a new book.
>
> Steve
>
>
>
> On Wed, Nov 7, 2012 at 8:32 AM, Mark Schmitt <schmitt.mark at gmail.com>wrote:
>
>> I agree with that point, Steve, and always have.
>>
>> I would suggest, however, that one reason that the pro-Romney SuperPACs
>> and c(4)'s had less impact than some expected is that they seem to have put
>> all their money on broadcast media and to a lesser extent robocalls and
>> mail. What if some of the money had been put toward voter mobilization
>> efforts, targetted at key likely-Romney constituencies? Much of the
>> Democratic non-campaign spending takes this form.
>>
>> Why didn't that happen? My guess is that it's a combination of two
>> things: Rich donors want something they can see, like an ad that they
>> imagine will reveal that Kenyan socialist for what he is and destroy him,
>> rather than the amorphous idea that some people are out there getting
>> people to vote. And second, the operatives who created the SuperPACs and
>> c(4)'s are getting very, very rich off of media-buying commissions (richer
>> than they would get if they were actually working for the campaign, which
>> followed Obama's lead from 2008 in cracking down on commissions), and had
>> no interest in giving that up. Hence, as pointed out in another thread,
>> they were essentially burning off money on national ad buys in the last
>> week.
>>
>> If it weren't for greed, Citizens United and SpeechNow might have had
>> more impact.
>>
>> Mark Schmitt
>> Senior Fellow, The Roosevelt Institute<http://www.rooseveltinstitute.org/>
>> 202/246-2350
>> gchat or Skype: schmitt.mark
>> twitter: mschmitt9
>>
>>
>>
>> On Tue, Nov 6, 2012 at 11:52 PM, Steve Hoersting <hoersting at gmail.com>wrote:
>>
>>> To those who read this e-mail as predicting a Romney win, fair enough:
>>> If that is the way you read it, I was incorrect.
>>>
>>> But as to my main point (and one directed at an election law list) -- to
>>> not blame the Super PACs; they were never the President's problem -- I
>>> stand by it. There were always plenty of independent players and funds
>>> supporting Team Obama.
>>>
>>> I still believe the President ebbed in his reelection effort -- and no
>>> one doubts that today's race was close; too close for a well-liked
>>> incumbent -- because of an Obama agenda of what I called earlier today and
>>> continue to call "out-sized collectivism."
>>>
>>> Congratulations to the compliance team and strategists at Perkins Coie,
>>>
>>> Steve
>>>
>>> On Tue, Nov 6, 2012 at 11:10 AM, Steve Hoersting <hoersting at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>
>>>> Should, by this time tomorrow, President Obama fail to win re-election,
>>>> as now seems the case, many will point to a point made by *Politico*on August 20th of this year:
>>>>
>>>> Obama has himself to blame for what has, arguably, been the greatest
>>>> unforced error of his political career: his team's failure to adequately
>>>> form a strategy to deal with the avalanche of unregulated cash raining down
>>>> on him from GOP and Romney-allied Super PACs.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> As one who started blogging against the FEC political-committee
>>>> regulations that would kill the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth and six other
>>>> notable organizations on the Right and Left, and as one who worked on some
>>>> of the cases that would bring Americans the "Super PAC" -- and there were
>>>> four or five cases responsible, not just two -- it is tempting to want to
>>>> echo emphatically the *Politico* commentary: *You're darn right.*
>>>>
>>>> But the commentary doesn't hold. While I understand the role of freed
>>>> speech in this election, and the importance of increasingly alternative
>>>> committees speaking in an increasing alternative media, I recognize that
>>>> the real reason the President ebbs in his reelection effort is his
>>>> inability to cloak an out-sized collectivism in American garb.
>>>>
>>>> No one could pull that off. It is regrettable he tried,
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Stephen M. Hoersting
>>>>
>>>> http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/79867.html
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> --
>>> Stephen M. Hoersting
>>>
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> Law-election mailing list
>>> Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
>>> http://department-lists.uci.edu/mailman/listinfo/law-election
>>>
>>
>>
>> _______________________________________________
>> Law-election mailing list
>> Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
>> http://department-lists.uci.edu/mailman/listinfo/law-election
>>
>
>
>
> --
> Stephen M. Hoersting
>
>
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Message: 26
Date: Wed, 7 Nov 2012 10:21:35 -0500
From: Steve Hoersting <hoersting at gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [EL] Super PACs and the Presidency
To: Mark Schmitt <schmitt.mark at gmail.com>
Cc: "law-election at uci.edu" <law-election at uci.edu>
Message-ID:
<CACBduo-RjoN3Bv1urjkrrU3Dv_mT5SbxjvH8rORiHjrOi+YvJQ at mail.gmail.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
Never liked the "restaurants near a highway" argument in undergraduate
economics courses. Dismissing Hayek because my economics professor couldn't
conceive of a Zagat Restaurant Guide (and its equivalent in any market) was
always non-starter for me.
And I think you'll see the same thing here. Not only will Friess and
Adelson hear reports by word of mouth as to who was effective and who
wasn't, remember that each receipt and disbursement of these Super PACs is
reported.
By the way, when you reply with some form of "but Friess and Adelson will
be totally in the dark with regard to c4 spending," I won't be answering
soon. I have other things to turn to.
All the best,
Steve
On Wed, Nov 7, 2012 at 10:09 AM, Mark Schmitt <schmitt.mark at gmail.com>wrote:
> "Any Super PAC seen lining its pockets rather than winning will be
> punished by those dreaded markets the left tends to discount in other
> spheres."
>
> I don't discount markets; I think markets are awesome. However, markets
> with asymmetric information are not likely to be that efficient. The donors
> to SuperPACs typically aren't sophisticated enough to know whether they are
> being ripped off or not. And in every cycle, there seem to be new big
> donors. So it's the equivalent of the restaurants near a big tourist hotel
> (like in Woodley Park in DC) that don't have to be very good because their
> customers are unlikely to return anyway, and they'll have new ones next
> weekend. Consultants managed to rip off campaigns on media buys for years
> and years before 2008; mega-donors like Adelson are easier marks.
>
> Mark Schmitt
> Senior Fellow, The Roosevelt Institute<http://www.rooseveltinstitute.org/>
> 202/246-2350
> gchat or Skype: schmitt.mark
> twitter: mschmitt9
>
>
>
> On Wed, Nov 7, 2012 at 9:44 AM, Steve Hoersting <hoersting at gmail.com>wrote:
>
>> Good morning, Mark,
>>
>> I do agree that this election appears to have turned on voter
>> mobilization efforts. The Democrats got exactly what they needed, where
>> they needed it, and nothing more until the California returns came in. Very
>> different from the 2008 general election. I think the degree of that will
>> be understood in time.
>>
>> I've also surmised for years (without knowing quite how to confirm) that
>> the Left is better at mobilization not because they have less money but
>> because they have more persons, actual individuals, in their coalition to
>> work maps, drive vans, and walk people to the polls -- and have had for a
>> number of cycles now.
>>
>> Ground game funded by Super PACs and c4s is entirely new to the Right.
>> And I have often thought that Republicans run ads because they don't know
>> whom to finance to knock on doors. A study is needed there to see whether I
>> am right about that as well. Republican party-oriented Victory programs are
>> effective enough, and their micro-targeting data is good. But that model
>> needs to be transmitted to outside groups motivated to use them, and to
>> multiply exponentially the efforts of the party committee or the Republican
>> party committee will be swamped.
>>
>> As to your second point, which is far less charitable, I've heard the
>> stories over the years of mail shops putting all their receipts into
>> salaries and overhead.
>>
>> But I believe the people running newly minted Super PACs and expanded c4s
>> desperately want to win elections. This is true for ideological reasons: no
>> one can say Steven Law didn't have what it took to have become a
>> Wall-Street trader rather than a policy operative. But it is true for that
>> base reason you ascribe to the Right's failure: Any Super PAC seen lining
>> its pockets rather than winning will be punished by those dreaded markets
>> the left tends to discount in other spheres.
>>
>> Again, I believe the Right runs the ad war because it doesn't know whom
>> to finance for large scale ground game. Ads over the air are meant to *
>> find* a coalition the Left has already found and can fund directly:
>> people willing to get off the couch. Who are the labor unions of the
>> Right... or other such coalitions? You can tell from this post that I
>> don't know.
>>
>> But I would imagine that the Drew Ryuns and Matt Kibbes of the world are
>> awaking this morning to figure it out. Let's let the Super PACs work awhile.
>>
>> ***
>>
>> I will add one more point: If, as some pundits were suggesting last
>> night, markets, individual liberty and speech rights are an "aging,
>> white-male thing" that Republicans should rethink -- because, after all,
>> what "the folks" really want from their politicians is *stuff* -- we are
>> all doomed, each of us. These principles are universal; the natural right
>> of all men and women. I hope "diversity" doesn't come to equal statism, as
>> I fear it might in the near term.
>>
>> Immigration does need rethinking. You saw that tension in speeches at the
>> RNC last September -- and I saw, on Twitter, that Jeb Bush and Clint Bolick
>> have begun with a new book.
>>
>> Steve
>>
>>
>>
>> On Wed, Nov 7, 2012 at 8:32 AM, Mark Schmitt <schmitt.mark at gmail.com>wrote:
>>
>>> I agree with that point, Steve, and always have.
>>>
>>> I would suggest, however, that one reason that the pro-Romney SuperPACs
>>> and c(4)'s had less impact than some expected is that they seem to have put
>>> all their money on broadcast media and to a lesser extent robocalls and
>>> mail. What if some of the money had been put toward voter mobilization
>>> efforts, targetted at key likely-Romney constituencies? Much of the
>>> Democratic non-campaign spending takes this form.
>>>
>>> Why didn't that happen? My guess is that it's a combination of two
>>> things: Rich donors want something they can see, like an ad that they
>>> imagine will reveal that Kenyan socialist for what he is and destroy him,
>>> rather than the amorphous idea that some people are out there getting
>>> people to vote. And second, the operatives who created the SuperPACs and
>>> c(4)'s are getting very, very rich off of media-buying commissions (richer
>>> than they would get if they were actually working for the campaign, which
>>> followed Obama's lead from 2008 in cracking down on commissions), and had
>>> no interest in giving that up. Hence, as pointed out in another thread,
>>> they were essentially burning off money on national ad buys in the last
>>> week.
>>>
>>> If it weren't for greed, Citizens United and SpeechNow might have had
>>> more impact.
>>>
>>> Mark Schmitt
>>> Senior Fellow, The Roosevelt Institute<http://www.rooseveltinstitute.org/>
>>> 202/246-2350
>>> gchat or Skype: schmitt.mark
>>> twitter: mschmitt9
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> On Tue, Nov 6, 2012 at 11:52 PM, Steve Hoersting <hoersting at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>
>>>> To those who read this e-mail as predicting a Romney win, fair enough:
>>>> If that is the way you read it, I was incorrect.
>>>>
>>>> But as to my main point (and one directed at an election law list) --
>>>> to not blame the Super PACs; they were never the President's problem -- I
>>>> stand by it. There were always plenty of independent players and funds
>>>> supporting Team Obama.
>>>>
>>>> I still believe the President ebbed in his reelection effort -- and no
>>>> one doubts that today's race was close; too close for a well-liked
>>>> incumbent -- because of an Obama agenda of what I called earlier today and
>>>> continue to call "out-sized collectivism."
>>>>
>>>> Congratulations to the compliance team and strategists at Perkins Coie,
>>>>
>>>> Steve
>>>>
>>>> On Tue, Nov 6, 2012 at 11:10 AM, Steve Hoersting <hoersting at gmail.com>wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> Should, by this time tomorrow, President Obama fail to win
>>>>> re-election, as now seems the case, many will point to a point made by
>>>>> *Politico* on August 20th of this year:
>>>>>
>>>>> Obama has himself to blame for what has, arguably, been the greatest
>>>>> unforced error of his political career: his team's failure to adequately
>>>>> form a strategy to deal with the avalanche of unregulated cash raining down
>>>>> on him from GOP and Romney-allied Super PACs.
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> As one who started blogging against the FEC political-committee
>>>>> regulations that would kill the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth and six other
>>>>> notable organizations on the Right and Left, and as one who worked on some
>>>>> of the cases that would bring Americans the "Super PAC" -- and there were
>>>>> four or five cases responsible, not just two -- it is tempting to want to
>>>>> echo emphatically the *Politico* commentary: *You're darn right.*
>>>>>
>>>>> But the commentary doesn't hold. While I understand the role of freed
>>>>> speech in this election, and the importance of increasingly alternative
>>>>> committees speaking in an increasing alternative media, I recognize that
>>>>> the real reason the President ebbs in his reelection effort is his
>>>>> inability to cloak an out-sized collectivism in American garb.
>>>>>
>>>>> No one could pull that off. It is regrettable he tried,
>>>>>
>>>>> --
>>>>> Stephen M. Hoersting
>>>>>
>>>>> http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0812/79867.html
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> --
>>>> Stephen M. Hoersting
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> _______________________________________________
>>>> Law-election mailing list
>>>> Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
>>>> http://department-lists.uci.edu/mailman/listinfo/law-election
>>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> _______________________________________________
>>> Law-election mailing list
>>> Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
>>> http://department-lists.uci.edu/mailman/listinfo/law-election
>>>
>>
>>
>>
>> --
>> Stephen M. Hoersting
>>
>>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Law-election mailing list
> Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
> http://department-lists.uci.edu/mailman/listinfo/law-election
>
--
Stephen M. Hoersting
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Message: 27
Date: Wed, 7 Nov 2012 07:50:33 -0800
From: Rick Hasen <rhasen at law.uci.edu>
Subject: [EL] ELB News and Commentary 11/7/12
To: "law-election at UCI.edu" <law-election at UCI.edu>
Message-ID: <509A8349.5030306 at law.uci.edu>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
Thank You <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43715>
Posted on November 7, 2012 7:49 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43715>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
This has been probably the busiest season yet for the Election Law Blog,
as issues related to the voting wars
<http://www.amazon.com/Voting-Wars-Florida-Election-Meltdown/dp/0300182031/ref=sr_1_cc_2?s=aps&ie=UTF8&qid=1329286945&sr=1-2-catcorr>
seemed to have hit the public consciousness in a way they never did
before. Add into that the new campaign finance regime and
hyper-polarization and the rise of litigation--there's been a lot to cover.
I appreciate that you've taken the time to visit this site, and thanks
especially to those of you who emailed me tips, criticisms, and
suggestions---you've helped to make this a more accurate and fairer
place to get information about election law.
The election is over, though there could well be some recounts. I'll be
turning my attention to issues related to the expected Supreme Court
case over the constitutionality of the voting rights act, the continuing
deregulation of campaign finance, attempts to fix our broken election
system, the role of political polarization in Congress and the courts,
and other issues that often take place below the radar but that have
profound implications for the nature of our democracy and representation.
Thank you for reading.
Share
<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D43715&title=Thank%20You&description=>
Posted in Uncategorized <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1> | Comments Off
"Montana Senate, governor races still too close to call"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43712>
Posted on November 7, 2012 7:39 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43712>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
AP reports
<http://missoulian.com/news/local/montana-senate-governor-races-still-too-close-to-call/article_a5841dc0-28e6-11e2-83b5-001a4bcf887a.html>.
Share
<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D43712&title=%E2%80%9CMontana%20Senate%2C%20governor%20races%20still%20too%20close%20to%20call%E2%80%9D&description=>
Posted in Uncategorized <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=1> | Comments Off
"Voter Fraud In District 23 Congressional Race?"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43709>
Posted on November 7, 2012 7:37 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43709>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Keep your eye
<http://www.foxsanantonio.com/newsroom/top_stories/videos/vid_12716.shtml>
on this important Texas district---tied up in voting
rights/redistricting challenges.
Share
<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D43709&title=%E2%80%9CVoter%20Fraud%20In%20District%2023%20Congressional%20Race%3F%E2%80%9D&description=>
Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>, Voting Rights Act
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=15> | Comments Off
Allen West Race to Recount? <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43704>
Posted on November 7, 2012 7:32 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43704>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Could be <http://atr.rollcall.com/allen-west-may-fall-short/>, though it
is too early to tell. What else may go into overtime?
Share
<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org%2F%3Fp%3D43704&title=Allen%20West%20Race%20to%20Recount%3F&description=>
Posted in recounts <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=50> | Comments Off
Let's Declare Florida an Election Disaster Area and Bring in the
Feds <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43702>
Posted on November 7, 2012 7:30 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43702>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
It is worth pointing out how close we've come again to another
meltdown. CNN still has not called the race, though it is likely to be
called soon for Obama. (If so, Florida will be the only state I missed
in my electoral college predictions <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43150>.)
Think of all the problems in Florida: the on, again off again in-person
absentee balloting in Miami Dade, put in place by local election
officials against the wishes of the mayor to get around the cutbacks on
early voting by the governor and legislature; the multiple ballot snafus
in Palm Beach County; long lines in cites throughout the state; major
problems in handling some absentee ballots; election officials in one
county telling people that they could vote through the end of the day
Wednesday.
Let's declare Florida an election disaster area and bring in the feds.
UPDATE: Marc Caputo
<http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/11/obama-turnout-machine-smashes-the-tea-party-china-in-florida-.html>:
Republican Gov. Rick Scott, largely absent from the campaign trail,
was highly unpopular before the election and will probably be even
more so after it. His decision to sign an election law that cracked
down on early voting was a major sore spot with tens of thousands of
people who had to wait in seven-hour-long lines just to cast ballots.
The wait times were exacerbated by another aspect of Scott's
election law: A provision requiring that all proposed constitutional
amendments be printed in full. It slowed voters down when they
filled out their ballots and when they had to jam the multiple pages
--- at least five sheets --- into the machines. Some machines
malfunctioned under all the pressure, causing lines to back-up even
on election night.
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
"Thousands of voting problem reports fielded across country"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43700>
Posted on November 7, 2012 7:25 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43700>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Gannett reports
<http://www.freep.com/article/20121107/NEWS07/311070087/-1/7daysarchives/Thousands-voting-problem-reports-fielded-across-country>.
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18> |
Comments Off
"'We Have to Fix That': Will Long Lines Be the Next Major Focus for
Election Reform?" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43698>
Posted on November 7, 2012 7:23 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43698>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Doug Chapin's thoughts
<http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/electionacademy/2012/11/we_have_to_fix_that_will_long.php>.
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
"By the way, we need to fix that" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43696>
Posted on November 7, 2012 7:22 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=43696>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>
Ned Foley's
<http://moritzlaw.osu.edu/electionlaw/comments/index.php?ID=10163>election
wrap-up thoughts.
Share
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Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18>,
The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60> | Comments Off
--
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-8000
949.824.3072 - office
949.824.0495 - fax
rhasen at law.uci.edu
http://law.uci.edu/faculty/page1_r_hasen.html
http://electionlawblog.org
Now available: The Voting Wars: http://amzn.to/y22ZTv
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Message: 28
Date: Wed, 7 Nov 2012 21:41:49 +0400
From: Mark Rush <markrush7983 at gmail.com>
Subject: [EL] popular and electoral vote counts; turnout down in 2012
To: "law-election at UCI.edu" <law-election at uci.edu>
Message-ID:
<CACsASVstBNs_vLccv49Pb25rB4VYOSmiVynfdZDi_XAjZ5yxNw at mail.gmail.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
Interesting points.
Obama's margin over Romney is about the same as Bush over Kerry in 2004.
Only difference is the electoral college.
Obama dropped from 66 million votes in 2008 to 60 million in 2012. The GOP
vote, at last count that I saw, is down about a million.
This is a reason to celebrate...barely.
--
Mark Rush
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Message: 29
Date: Wed, 7 Nov 2012 10:00:20 -0800 (PST)
From: Richard Winger <richardwinger at yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [EL] popular and electoral vote counts; turnout down in
2012
To: "law-election at UCI.edu" <law-election at uci.edu>, Mark Rush
<markrush7983 at gmail.com>
Message-ID:
<1352311220.98165.YahooMailClassic at web140402.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
Final totals will probably be at least 5% higher than the totals we have now.? Chances are high that the number of people who voted in November 2012 will be a larger number than the number of voters who voted in November 2008.? But the percentage of the potential electorate will probably be lower in 2012 than in 2008.
It's not clear yet if Obama got as much as 50% of the national popular vote for president.
Richard Winger
415-922-9779
PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
--- On Wed, 11/7/12, Mark Rush <markrush7983 at gmail.com> wrote:
From: Mark Rush <markrush7983 at gmail.com>
Subject: [EL] popular and electoral vote counts; turnout down in 2012
To: "law-election at UCI.edu" <law-election at uci.edu>
Date: Wednesday, November 7, 2012, 9:41 AM
Interesting points.
Obama's margin over Romney is about the same as Bush over Kerry in 2004.? Only difference is the electoral college.
Obama dropped from 66 million votes in 2008 to 60 million in 2012.? The GOP vote, at last count that I saw, is down about a million.
This is a reason to celebrate...barely.
--
Mark Rush
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Message: 30
Date: Wed, 7 Nov 2012 13:08:05 -0500
From: Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org>
Subject: Re: [EL] popular and electoral vote counts; turnout down in
2012
To: richardwinger at yahoo.com
Cc: "law-election at UCI.edu" <law-election at UCI.EDU>
Message-ID:
<CAM2RZHauROoSqOEQViwe4NVZ0UJGUhojhtQxGQ41BpKzR-x7YA at mail.gmail.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
Most of the rest of the votes to be counted are going to lean Obama. In
2008, for example,Obama led McCain by 7.2 million the day after the
election and ultimately won by about 9.5 million. So it wouldn't surprise
me if Obama ended up winning by more than four million votes. He'll win
more than 50%.
Rob Richie
############
On Wed, Nov 7, 2012 at 1:00 PM, Richard Winger <richardwinger at yahoo.com>wrote:
> Final totals will probably be at least 5% higher than the totals we have
> now. Chances are high that the number of people who voted in November 2012
> will be a larger number than the number of voters who voted in November
> 2008. But the percentage of the potential electorate will probably be
> lower in 2012 than in 2008.
>
> It's not clear yet if Obama got as much as 50% of the national popular
> vote for president.
>
> Richard Winger
> 415-922-9779
> PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
>
> --- On *Wed, 11/7/12, Mark Rush <markrush7983 at gmail.com>* wrote:
>
>
> From: Mark Rush <markrush7983 at gmail.com>
> Subject: [EL] popular and electoral vote counts; turnout down in 2012
> To: "law-election at UCI.edu" <law-election at uci.edu>
> Date: Wednesday, November 7, 2012, 9:41 AM
>
>
> Interesting points.
>
> Obama's margin over Romney is about the same as Bush over Kerry in 2004.
> Only difference is the electoral college.
>
> Obama dropped from 66 million votes in 2008 to 60 million in 2012. The
> GOP vote, at last count that I saw, is down about a million.
>
> This is a reason to celebrate...barely.
>
> --
> Mark Rush
>
> -----Inline Attachment Follows-----
>
> _______________________________________________
> Law-election mailing list
> Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu<http://mc/compose?to=Law-election@department-lists.uci.edu>
> http://department-lists.uci.edu/mailman/listinfo/law-election
>
>
> _______________________________________________
> Law-election mailing list
> Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
> http://department-lists.uci.edu/mailman/listinfo/law-election
>
--
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Respect for Every Vote and Every Voice"
Rob Richie
Executive Director
FairVote
6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 610
Takoma Park, MD 20912
www.fairvote.org <http://www.fairvote.org> rr at fairvote.org
(301) 270-4616
Please support FairVote through action and tax-deductible donations -- see
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Message: 31
Date: Wed, 07 Nov 2012 13:08:22 -0500
From: Michael McDonald <mmcdon at gmu.edu>
Subject: Re: [EL] popular and electoral vote counts; turnout down in
2012
To: "'law-election at UCI.edu'" <law-election at uci.edu>
Message-ID: <00c201cdbd12$dfdac590$9f9050b0$@edu>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=iso-8859-1
There is a lot of vote left to be counted, particularly in California,
Oregon, and Washington, but also in Florida and Ohio with provisional
ballots. Even some larger Florida counties like Miami-Dade and Palm Beach
have not processed their mail ballots yet. We will not really know the vote
count until the election results are certified, but certainly there are a
lot of Democratic votes still to be counted. We might get a better handle on
the count in the coming days as the slow reporting states process their
ballots. I'm projecting 132 million votes cast, with a 60% voting-eligible
turnout rate. There is a lot of uncertainty, especially given the increase
in mail and provisional balloting this election.
============
Dr. Michael P. McDonald
Associate Professor
George Mason University
4400 University Drive - 3F4
Fairfax, VA 22030-4444
703-993-4191 (office)
e-mail: mmcdon at gmu.edu
web: http://elections.gmu.edu
twitter: @ElectProject
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
[mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Mark
Rush
Sent: Wednesday, November 07, 2012 12:42 PM
To: law-election at UCI.edu
Subject: [EL] popular and electoral vote counts; turnout down in 2012
Interesting points.
Obama's margin over Romney is about the same as Bush over Kerry in 2004.?
Only difference is the electoral college.
Obama dropped from 66 million votes in 2008 to 60 million in 2012.? The GOP
vote, at last count that I saw, is down about a million.
This is a reason to celebrate...barely.
--
Mark Rush
------------------------------
Message: 32
Date: Wed, 7 Nov 2012 10:08:41 -0800 (PST)
From: Richard Winger <richardwinger at yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [EL] popular and electoral vote counts; turnout; my error
To: "law-election at UCI.edu" <law-election at UCI.EDU>, Mark Rush
<markrush7983 at gmail.com>
Message-ID:
<1352311721.25654.YahooMailClassic at web140406.mail.bf1.yahoo.com>
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="iso-8859-1"
I was thinking that 123,000,000 voted for president in 2008, but now I realize it was 131,313,820 in 2008, so I was wrong to guess that more people voted in 2012 than in 2008.
Richard Winger
415-922-9779
PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
--- On Wed, 11/7/12, Richard Winger <richardwinger at yahoo.com> wrote:
From: Richard Winger <richardwinger at yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [EL] popular and electoral vote counts; turnout down in 2012
To: "law-election at UCI.edu" <law-election at uci.edu>, "Mark Rush" <markrush7983 at gmail.com>
Date: Wednesday, November 7, 2012, 10:00 AM
Final totals will probably be at least 5% higher than the totals we have now.? Chances are high that the number of people who voted in November 2012 will be a larger number than the number of voters who voted in November 2008.? But the percentage of the potential electorate will probably be lower in 2012 than in 2008.
It's not clear yet if Obama got as much as 50% of the national popular vote for president.
Richard Winger
415-922-9779
PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
--- On Wed, 11/7/12, Mark Rush <markrush7983 at gmail.com> wrote:
From: Mark Rush <markrush7983 at gmail.com>
Subject: [EL] popular and electoral vote counts; turnout down in 2012
To: "law-election at UCI.edu" <law-election at uci.edu>
Date: Wednesday, November 7, 2012, 9:41 AM
Interesting points.
Obama's margin over Romney is about the same as Bush over Kerry in 2004.? Only difference is the electoral college.
Obama dropped from 66 million votes in 2008 to 60 million in 2012.? The GOP vote, at last count that I saw, is down about a million.
This is a reason to celebrate...barely.
--
Mark Rush
-----Inline Attachment Follows-----
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Law-election mailing list
Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
http://department-lists.uci.edu/mailman/listinfo/law-election
-----Inline Attachment Follows-----
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