[EL] accounting for races with only one major party nominee on ballot

[Gaddie, Ronald K.]

Richard, thank you for the clarification.  This issue came up this morning in a guest lecture at OU by Jim Campbell, and neither of us had time to look into the matter. This helps a great deal. ~kg

Ronald Keith Gaddie, Ph.D.
Professor of Political Science
Editor, Social Science Quarterly
The University of Oklahoma
455 West Lindsey Street, Room 222
Norman, OK  73019-2001
Phone 405-325-4989
Fax 405-325-0718
E-mail: rkgaddie at ou.edu
http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/G/Ronald.K.Gaddie-1
http://socialsciencequarterly.org
________________________________
From: Richard Winger [richardwinger at yahoo.com]
Sent: Monday, November 12, 2012 2:54 PM
To: law-election at uci.edu; Gaddie, Ronald K.
Subject: accounting for races with only one major party nominee on ballot

In the entire nation, there are only two districts in 2012 in which US House was removed from the November ballot because it was impossible for the voters to vote against the only person running.  Those were the Florida 15th and 24th districts.

In the other three races Professor Gaddie mentions, the Florida 4, 20, and 21 districts, there was only one major party candidate on the ballot, but there were independent candidates on the ballot, so the ballot did list the office of US House.

The other states that remove a US House from the ballot when there is only one person on the ballot, and no write-in candidates filed, are Arkansas, Hawaii, and Oklahoma.  But in all districts in those states this year, there were at least two candidates on the ballot.  Hawaii and Oklahoma don't permit write-ins, but Arkansas and Florida do (write-in candidates in those 2 states must file a declaration of write-in candidacy rather early, before the ballots get printed).

Richard Winger
415-922-9779
PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147

--- On Mon, 11/12/12, Gaddie, Ronald K. <rkgaddie at ou.edu> wrote:

From: Gaddie, Ronald K. <rkgaddie at ou.edu>
Subject: RE: [EL] Reps got more popular votes for US House in 1996 than Dems
To: "richardwinger at yahoo.com" <richardwinger at yahoo.com>, "law-election at uci.edu" <law-election at uci.edu>
Date: Monday, November 12, 2012, 12:38 PM

How do we account for instances where uncontested races do not appear on the ballot? A 0-0 tie for an uncontested winner adds nothing to the vote total for the winners party's total and margin. Florida 4, 15, 20, 21, and 24, for example?

Sometimes, there is no chance for Charles Darwin to make his support known due to local election law.



Ronald Keith Gaddie, Ph.D.
Professor of Political Science
Editor, Social Science Quarterly
The University of Oklahoma
455 West Lindsey Street, Room 222
Norman, OK  73019-2001
Phone 405-325-4989
Fax 405-325-0718
E-mail: rkgaddie at ou.edu
http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/G/Ronald.K.Gaddie-1
http://socialsciencequarterly.org
________________________________
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] on behalf of Richard Winger [richardwinger at yahoo.com]
Sent: Monday, November 12, 2012 2:30 PM
To: law-election at uci.edu
Subject: [EL] Reps got more popular votes for US House in 1996 than Dems

The Clerk of the US House of Representatives data for 1996 doesn't include the September 21, 1996 election results for US House in Louisiana.  That is why the Clerk's chart shows Democrats got more popular votes than the Republicans nationwide, because the Clerk's data only has the Louisiana returns that took place in November, which was only 2 districts.

The US Supreme Court ruled in 1997 in Foster v Love that Louisiana was breaking the federal law by holding its congressional elections in September.  So, the US Supreme Court agreed with my approach, that the Louisiana election in September was an election, and therefore it is rational for me to have included the September results in those 5 districts.

Rhodes Cook agrees with me.  See America Votes 1996 (vol. 22), page 4.  His compilation of the national US House vote for 1996 by party is:  Republican 43,902,303; Democratic 43,626,470.

Richard Winger
415-922-9779
PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147

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