[EL] CORRECTON : 2012 first time since 1952 when US House popular vote majority ends up as minority

[Rob Richie]

One correction to this: in the list of states where Democrats didn't win a
white-majority district, I  inadvertently listed Tennessee,where one
Democrat (Cooper) won in a white-majority district.

Rob

On Mon, Nov 12, 2012 at 2:52 PM, Rob Richie <rr at fairvote.org> wrote:

> FairVote's analysis is even more telling. Because of "vote inflation" for
> incumbents, the party with more incumbents is going to get an inflation in
> votes. If you look at races without incumbents the advantage for Democrats
> over what they likely would have gotten in a 50-50 national election
> averages a little over 2%. We suspect the underlying preference between the
> parties in House races closely tracked the presidential race, with Obama
> likely to end up winning by 3.0% or more once all the votes are counted.
>
> House races are a distinctly uneven playing field, as we laid out the
> report we published earlier this year, Monopoly Politics 2012 (one in which
> we projected winners in 333 seats, with all of them winning -- the report
> is accessible through our nifty map at FairVotingUs.cOM. If Obama and
> Romney had tied in the popular vote, for example, Romney likely would have
> carried about 50 more congressional districts.
>
> This bias is only partially due to the GOP having more power of
> redistricting maps, and much more due to the Democratic vote being
> naturally more concentrated -- and  now few of its "blue dogs" being able
> to win in conservative districts any more. (As an indicator of that
> challenge, not a single US House Democrat won in a white-majority district
> in the adjoining states of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Arkansas, Missouri,
> Tennessee, Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama.)
>
> Bottom line: Democrats likely would have not have secured even a slim
> majority in the House this year without being preferred by more than 54% of
> voters. The same math is likely in play for 2014. We'll be posting on our
> blog how we determine this shortly and where that 54%-plus number comes
> from.
>
> I should emphasize that we write this as nonpartisan backers of a level
> playing field!
> Rob
>
> On Mon, Nov 12, 2012 at 2:25 PM, Richard Winger <richardwinger at yahoo.com>wrote:
>
>>
>> http://www.ballot-access.org/2012/11/12/only-four-u-s-house-elections-in-the-last-hundred-years-gave-one-party-a-house-majority-even-though-the-other-major-party-polled-more-votes-for-u-s-house/
>>
>> Richard Winger
>> 415-922-9779
>> PO Box 470296, San Francisco Ca 94147
>> _______________________________________________
>> Law-election mailing list
>> Law-election at department-lists.uci.edu
>> http://department-lists.uci.edu/mailman/listinfo/law-election
>>
>
>
>
> --
> ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
> "Respect for Every Vote and Every Voice"
>
> Rob Richie
> Executive Director
>
> FairVote
> 6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 610
> Takoma Park, MD 20912
> www.fairvote.org  <http://www.fairvote.org> rr at fairvote.org
> (301) 270-4616
>
> Please support FairVote through action and tax-deductible donations -- see
> http://fairvote.org/donate. For federal employees, please consider  a
> gift to us through the Combined Federal Campaign (FairVote's  CFC number is
> 10132.) Thank you!
>
>


-- 
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
"Respect for Every Vote and Every Voice"

Rob Richie
Executive Director

FairVote
6930 Carroll Avenue, Suite 610
Takoma Park, MD 20912
www.fairvote.org  <http://www.fairvote.org> rr at fairvote.org
(301) 270-4616

Please support FairVote through action and tax-deductible donations -- see
http://fairvote.org/donate. For federal employees, please consider  a gift
to us through the Combined Federal Campaign (FairVote's  CFC number is
10132.) Thank you!
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