[EL] "We got way too excited over money in the 2012 elections"

Mon May 6 11:23:44 PDT 2013

Quick additional nomination to today's edition of the always
indispensable "ELB News and Commentary":

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/05/06/we-got-way-to
o-excited-over-money-in-the-2012-elections/

The linked article is a transcript of Washington Post columnist Ezra
Klein's opening remarks for a panel at the Yale Institution for Social
and Policy Studies on "Purchasing Power: Money, Politics, and
Inequality."  

Klein's remarks briefly explore how a "really, really simple"
mathematical model ended up predicting last year's presidential election
results to within a tenth of a percentage point despite omitting (or
because it omitted) any consideration of the amount of money raised or
spent by or for either candidate.  

In fact, the model's predicted result was much more accurate than the
truthier outcome Klein's gut told him to expect; and in his remarks
Klein explains that "one reason I think the model beat me was that I was
reading a lot of stories about super PACs and campaign fundraising and
my model wasn't."

The schedule of the Yale conference itself is online here: 
http://isps.yale.edu/conferences/purchasing-power-money-politics-and-ine
quality/schedule#.UYfJPMpi-M8.  Sounds like an interesting event, I'd be
interested to hear any field reports from any list members in
attendance.

Best,

Joe

________________________________
Joseph M. Birkenstock, Esq.
Caplin & Drysdale, Chtd.
One Thomas Circle, NW
Washington, DC 20005
(202) 862-7836
www.capdale.com/jbirkenstock
*also admitted to practice in CA

From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
[mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Rick
Hasen
Sent: Monday, May 06, 2013 10:48 AM
To: law-election at UCI.edu
Subject: [EL] ELB News and Commentary 5/6/13

"Lobbyists Keep Freshmen Coming Back for More Checks"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=49922>  

Posted on May 6, 2013 7:38 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=49922>  by 
Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>  

Political MoneyLine reports
<http://blogs.rollcall.com/moneyline/lobbyists-start-build-ongoing-membe
r-relationships-with-small-checks/> .

<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org
%2F%3Fp%3D49922&title=%E2%80%9CLobbyists%20Keep%20Freshmen%20Coming%20Ba
ck%20for%20More%20Checks%E2%80%9D&description=> 

Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10> , 
legislation and legislatures <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=27> , 
lobbying <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=28>  | Comments Off 

"On Bush v. Gore, O'Connor Belatedly Regrets"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=49920>  

Posted on May 6, 2013 7:38 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=49920>  by 
Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>  

Jost on Justice
<http://jostonjustice.blogspot.com/2013/05/on-bush-v-gore-oconnor-belate
dly-regrets.html> .

<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org
%2F%3Fp%3D49920&title=%E2%80%9COn%20Bush%20v.%20Gore%2C%20O%E2%80%99Conn
or%20Belatedly%20Regrets%E2%80%9D&description=> 

Posted in Bush v. Gore reflections <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=5> ,
Supreme Court <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=29>  | Comments Off 

"Battling Across the Finish Line: Florida and Colorado Move Toward
Approval of Reform Bills" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=49917>  

Posted on May 6, 2013 7:21 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=49917>  by 
Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>  

A ChapinBlog
<http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/electionacademy/2013/05/battling_across_th
e_finish_lin.php> .

<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org
%2F%3Fp%3D49917&title=%E2%80%9CBattling%20Across%20the%20Finish%20Line%3
A%20Florida%20and%20Colorado%20Move%20Toward%20Approval%20of%20Reform%20
Bills%E2%80%9D&description=> 

Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18> ,
The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>  | Comments Off 

"Getting Beyond the Fraud" <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=49915>  

Posted on May 6, 2013 7:20 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=49915>  by 
Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>  

Fort Wayne Journal Gazette editorial
<http://www.journalgazette.net/article/20130506/EDIT07/305069998/1147> :
"Before Indiana GOP officials bluster on too long about how dirty the
Indiana Democratic Party's kettle is when it comes to election fraud,
they should keep in mind their own record."

<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org
%2F%3Fp%3D49915&title=%E2%80%9CGetting%20Beyond%20the%20Fraud%E2%80%9D&d
escription=> 

Posted in The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>  |
Comments Off 

"Husted suddenly losses interest in election uniformity"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=49911>  

Posted on May 5, 2013 2:09 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=49911>  by 
Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>  

Plunderbund blogs.
<http://www.plunderbund.com/2013/05/04/husted-suddenly-losses-interest-i
n-election-uniformity/> 

<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org
%2F%3Fp%3D49911&title=%E2%80%9CHusted%20suddenly%20losses%20interest%20i
n%20election%20uniformity%E2%80%9D&description=> 

Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18> ,
The Voting Wars <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=60>  | Comments Off 

"Stem dark money flow into elections"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=49908>  

Posted on May 5, 2013 2:04 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=49908>  by 
Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>  

Raph Graybill oped
<http://mtstandard.com/news/opinion/stem-dark-money-flow-into-elections/
article_c87e0168-b515-11e2-b0fb-0019bb2963f4.html>  in the Montana
Standard.

<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org
%2F%3Fp%3D49908&title=%E2%80%9CStem%20dark%20money%20flow%20into%20elect
ions%E2%80%9D&description=> 

Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>  |
Comments Off 

"L.A. County rejects school districts' bid to avoid voting rights suits"
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=49905>  

Posted on May 5, 2013 12:22 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=49905>  by
Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>  

LAT
<http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-school-voting-rights-201304
30,0,6079999.story> : "Los Angeles County officials rejected a bid
Tuesday from several Santa Clarita Valley school districts and a water
district hoping to consolidate elections and avoid the kind of voting
rights lawsuits that other local governments have been hit with....The
districts commissioned a joint demographic study that found moving to
by-district elections would not necessarily increase minority voting
power or protect them against voting rights lawsuits. So instead they
requested that the county allow them to consolidate their elections with
the statewide general election in a bid to increase voter participation
in their elections....But officials with the county registrar-recorder
said allowing the districts to move their elections might overload the
county's voting system, which has limited room on each ballot. According
to the office, large portions of the county are already at 75% capacity
in even-year November elections."

<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org
%2F%3Fp%3D49905&title=%E2%80%9CL.A.%20County%20rejects%20school%20distri
cts%E2%80%99%20bid%20to%20avoid%20voting%20rights%20suits%E2%80%9D&descr
iption=> 

Posted in election administration <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=18> ,
voting <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=31> , Voting Rights Act
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=15>  | Comments Off 

"The House Prefers Chaos to Order' <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=49902>

Posted on May 4, 2013 6:13 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=49902>  by 
Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>  

NYT Editorial
<http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/05/opinion/sunday/the-house-prefers-chao
s-to-order.html?ref=opinion> :

	"Regular order!" That has been the demand of House Republicans
for three years, insisting on a return to the distant days when Congress
actually passed budget resolutions and spending bills, instead of paying
for the government through shortsighted stopgap measures.

	"Senate Democrats have done nothing," Speaker John Boehner said
on "Meet the Press" on March 3
<http://www.nbcnews.com/id/51006727/ns/meet_the_press-transcripts/t/marc
h-john-boehner-gene-sperling-raul-labrador-kathleen-parker-joy-reid-chuc
k-todd-tom-brokaw/> , referring to the Senate's failure to pass a budget
since 2009. "It's time for them to vote. It's time for us to get back to
regular order here in Congress." The two chambers could try to resolve
their differences in a conference committee, he said, "and maybe come to
some agreement."

	But a funny thing happened a few days after those comments were
made: the Senate agreed to that demand and actually passed a budget
<http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/16/opinion/senate-democrats-finally-take
-a-stand.html> . Suddenly all those Republican cries for regular order
stopped. Suddenly the House has no interest in a conference with the
Senate. Instead, Congress is preparing for yet another budget crisis.

<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org
%2F%3Fp%3D49902&title=%E2%80%9CThe%20House%20Prefers%20Chaos%20to%20Orde
r%E2%80%99&description=> 

Posted in legislation and legislatures
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=27> , political parties
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=25> , political polarization
<http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=68>  | Comments Off 

"The 'Transparency' Agenda; It's a murky business."
<http://electionlawblog.org/?p=49899>  

Posted on May 4, 2013 5:29 pm <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=49899>  by 
Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>  

This article
<http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/transparency-agenda_720569.html>
appears in the Weekly Standard.

<http://www.addtoany.com/share_save#url=http%3A%2F%2Felectionlawblog.org
%2F%3Fp%3D49899&title=%E2%80%9CThe%20%E2%80%98Transparency%E2%80%99%20Ag
enda%3B%20It%E2%80%99s%20a%20murky%20business.%E2%80%9D&description=> 

Posted in campaign finance <http://electionlawblog.org/?cat=10>  |
Comments Off 

-- 
Rick Hasen
Chancellor's Professor of Law and Political Science
UC Irvine School of Law
401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000
Irvine, CA 92697-8000
949.824.3072 - office
949.824.0495 - fax
rhasen at law.uci.edu
http://law.uci.edu/faculty/page1_r_hasen.html
http://electionlawblog.org

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