[EL] "We got way too excited over money in the 2012 elections"

Mon May 6 11:51:24 PDT 2013

I'd be interested in hearing what the panelists said, but analyses along these lines miss the role that money plays in determining which issue positions are allowed to be taken by 'serious' candidates and electeds.  And especially misses that all-important first sorting: That in order to make a serious run for even most state legislative seats (or city council seats in mid-sized or big cities) you need to be somebody who's had success at networking among people who are able to make sizable campaign donations.  
And I think all of that does make it a 'decisive player' and 'imperil democracy', even if it doesn't tip the red-blue balance.
And yet the way we talked about money in the run-up to the 2012 election, we really suggested it would be a decisive player. In fact, we suggested, quite often, that it wouldn’t just decide the election, but that it would imperil democracy itself.

Date: Mon, 6 May 2013 14:23:44 -0400
From: jbirkenstock at capdale.com
To: law-election at uci.edu
Subject: [EL] "We got way too excited over money in the 2012 elections"

Quick additional nomination to today’s edition of the always indispensable “ELB News and Commentary”: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/05/06/we-got-way-too-excited-over-money-in-the-2012-elections/ The linked article is a transcript of Washington Post columnist Ezra Klein’s opening remarks for a panel at the Yale Institution for Social and Policy Studies on “Purchasing Power: Money, Politics, and Inequality.”   Klein’s remarks briefly explore how a “really, really simple” mathematical model ended up predicting last year’s presidential election results to within a tenth of a percentage point despite omitting (or because it omitted) any consideration of the amount of money raised or spent by or for either candidate.   In fact, the model’s predicted result was much more accurate than the truthier outcome Klein’s gut told him to expect; and in his remarks Klein explains that “one reason I think the model beat me was that I was reading a lot of stories about super PACs and campaign fundraising and my model wasn’t.” The schedule of the Yale conference itself is online here: http://isps.yale.edu/conferences/purchasing-power-money-politics-and-inequality/schedule#.UYfJPMpi-M8.  Sounds like an interesting event, I’d be interested to hear any field reports from any list members in attendance. Best,Joe  ________________________________
Joseph M. Birkenstock, Esq.
Caplin & Drysdale, Chtd.
One Thomas Circle, NW
Washington, DC 20005
(202) 862-7836
www.capdale.com/jbirkenstock
*also admitted to practice in CA   From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Rick Hasen
Sent: Monday, May 06, 2013 10:48 AM
To: law-election at UCI.edu
Subject: [EL] ELB News and Commentary 5/6/13 “Lobbyists Keep Freshmen Coming Back for More Checks” Posted on May 6, 2013 7:38 am by Rick Hasen Political MoneyLine reports.Posted in campaign finance, legislation and legislatures, lobbying | Comments Off “On Bush v. Gore, O’Connor Belatedly Regrets” Posted on May 6, 2013 7:38 am by Rick Hasen Jost on Justice.Posted in Bush v. Gore reflections, Supreme Court | Comments Off “Battling Across the Finish Line: Florida and Colorado Move Toward Approval of Reform Bills” Posted on May 6, 2013 7:21 am by Rick Hasen A ChapinBlog.Posted in election administration, The Voting Wars | Comments Off “Getting Beyond the Fraud” Posted on May 6, 2013 7:20 am by Rick Hasen Fort Wayne Journal Gazette editorial: “Before Indiana GOP officials bluster on too long about how dirty the Indiana Democratic Party’s kettle is when it comes to election fraud, they should keep in mind their own record.”Posted in The Voting Wars | Comments Off “Husted suddenly losses interest in election uniformity” Posted on May 5, 2013 2:09 pm by Rick Hasen Plunderbund blogs.Posted in election administration, The Voting Wars | Comments Off “Stem dark money flow into elections” Posted on May 5, 2013 2:04 pm by Rick Hasen Raph Graybill oped in the Montana Standard.Posted in campaign finance | Comments Off “L.A. County rejects school districts’ bid to avoid voting rights suits” Posted on May 5, 2013 12:22 pm by Rick Hasen LAT: “Los Angeles County officials rejected a bid Tuesday from several Santa Clarita Valley school districts and a water district hoping to consolidate elections and avoid the kind of voting rights lawsuits that other local governments have been hit with….The districts commissioned a joint demographic study that found moving to by-district elections would not necessarily increase minority voting power or protect them against voting rights lawsuits. So instead they requested that the county allow them to consolidate their elections with the statewide general election in a bid to increase voter participation in their elections….But officials with the county registrar-recorder said allowing the districts to move their elections might overload the county’s voting system, which has limited room on each ballot. According to the office, large portions of the county are already at 75% capacity in even-year November elections.”Posted in election administration, voting, Voting Rights Act | Comments Off “The House Prefers Chaos to Order’ Posted on May 4, 2013 6:13 pm by Rick Hasen NYT Editorial:“Regular order!” That has been the demand of House Republicans for three years, insisting on a return to the distant days when Congress actually passed budget resolutions and spending bills, instead of paying for the government through shortsighted stopgap measures.“Senate Democrats have done nothing,” Speaker John Boehner said on “Meet the Press” on March 3, referring to the Senate’s failure to pass a budget since 2009. “It’s time for them to vote. It’s time for us to get back to regular order here in Congress.” The two chambers could try to resolve their differences in a conference committee, he said, “and maybe come to some agreement.”But a funny thing happened a few days after those comments were made: the Senate agreed to that demand and actually passed a budget. Suddenly all those Republican cries for regular order stopped. Suddenly the House has no interest in a conference with the Senate. Instead, Congress is preparing for yet another budget crisis.Posted in legislation and legislatures, political parties, political polarization | Comments Off “The ‘Transparency’ Agenda; It’s a murky business.” Posted on May 4, 2013 5:29 pm by Rick Hasen This article appears in the Weekly Standard.Posted in campaign finance | Comments Off -- Rick HasenChancellor's Professor of Law and Political ScienceUC Irvine School of Law401 E. Peltason Dr., Suite 1000Irvine, CA 92697-8000949.824.3072 - office949.824.0495 - faxrhasen at law.uci.eduhttp://law.uci.edu/faculty/page1_r_hasen.htmlhttp://electionlawblog.org <- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ->

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