[EL] What if Bachmann resigns?

Thu May 30 05:40:32 PDT 2013

My point in noting that Bachmann could resign and there would not be a
gubernatorial nominated replacement is to highlight the fact that the GOP
would not have to fear the seat going to a Democrat.   This gives Bachmann
options were she to decide to cash in on some opportunity and want to leave
office early.  I think her cash value potentially declines the longer she
is in office as a lame duck.

On Thu, May 30, 2013 at 7:15 AM, Gaddie, Ronald K. <rkgaddie at ou.edu> wrote:

> The earlier you resign, the easier it is to retain. There is a piece in
> Legislative Studies Quarterly that indicates as much, from 2011. When we
> model special elections based on udual inputs -- spending, party baseline,
> candidate experience -- they behave like ordinary open seats.
>
> Ronald Keith Gaddie, Ph.D.
> Professor of Political Science
> General Editor, Social Science Quarterly
> Co-editor, The American Review of Politics
> The University of Oklahoma
> 455 West Lindsey Street, Room 222
> Norman, OK  73019-2001
> Phone 405-325-4989
> Fax 405-325-0718
> E-mail: rkgaddie at ou.edu
> http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/G/Ronald.K.Gaddie-1
> http://socialsciencequarterly.org
>
> ________________________________________
> From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [
> law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] on behalf of Mark Schmitt [
> schmitt.mark at gmail.com]
> Sent: Wednesday, May 29, 2013 10:41 PM
> To: law-election at uci.edu
> Subject: Re: [EL] What if Bachmann resigns?
>
> Fair point. But elected officials and political strategists think special
> elections and different turnout models matter. That's sometimes -- not
> always -- why members of Congress resign rather than wait it out. Recent
> evidence certainly suggests that that strategy can backfire, as it did in
> the Weiner seat and several others where the immediate political
> environment mattered more than turnout.
>
>
>
> Mark Schmitt
> Senior Fellow, The Roosevelt Institute<http://www.rooseveltinstitute.org/>
> 202/246-2350<tel:202%2F246-2350>
> gchat or Skype: schmitt.mark
> twitter: mschmitt9
>
>
> On Wed, May 29, 2013 at 9:20 PM, Gaddie, Ronald K. <rkgaddie at ou.edu
> <mailto:rkgaddie at ou.edu>> wrote:
> Special elections behave like regular open seats. While turnout might be
> lower, they most always are driven by the same factors and influences.
>
> Ronald Keith Gaddie, Ph.D.
> Professor of Political Science
> General Editor, Social Science Quarterly
> Co-editor, The American Review of Politics
> The University of Oklahoma
> 455 West Lindsey Street, Room 222
> Norman, OK  73019-2001
> Phone 405-325-4989<tel:405-325-4989>
> Fax 405-325-0718<tel:405-325-0718>
> E-mail: rkgaddie at ou.edu<mailto:rkgaddie at ou.edu>
> http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/G/Ronald.K.Gaddie-1
> http://socialsciencequarterly.org
> ________________________________
> From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu<mailto:
> law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu> [
> law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu<mailto:
> law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu>] on behalf of Mark Schmitt
> [schmitt.mark at gmail.com<mailto:schmitt.mark at gmail.com>]
>
> Sent: Wednesday, May 29, 2013 8:15 PM
> To: law-election at uci.edu<mailto:law-election at uci.edu>
> Subject: Re: [EL] What if Bachmann resigns?
>
>
> There have been 16 mid-term resignations from the House in the past two
> congresses. Some were for egregious scandals (like Weiner-gate), but most
> were either for the purpose of (1) getting the clock started on the
> lobbying waiting period or (2) betting that a low-turnout special election
> will be better for your party or your preferred successor than an open-seat
> general. It's really quite outrageous, given the cost of a special election.
>
> Bachmann did have a weird line in her video statement (which is very
> amusing, especially the music, although you'll never get those 8-1/2
> minutes back), where she said that "eight years is long enough to serve
> representing one specific congressional district." Is there some other
> district she might aim to run in? If so, or if she aims to run against
> Franken, I think she might not resign; otherwise, I'm sure she will.
>
>
> Mark Schmitt
> Senior Fellow, The Roosevelt Institute<http://www.rooseveltinstitute.org/>
> 202/246-2350<tel:202%2F246-2350>
> gchat or Skype: schmitt.mark
> twitter: mschmitt9
>
>
> On Wed, May 29, 2013 at 8:34 PM, Schultz, David A. <dschultz at hamline.edu
> <mailto:dschultz at hamline.edu>> wrote:
> What if Michele Bachmann decides to step down instead of serving out her
> term?  What then?
>
> The governor does not have the authority to fill the position and instead
> it must go to a special election.  This would deprive Democrat Mark Dayton
> from appointing a Democrat to fill the position.
>
> I am betting a dollar that Bachmann resigns before her term ends.  The
> longer she is in office the less and less her (political) capital or
> marketability is.
>
> See below.
>
> 204D.29 REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS VACANCY.
> Subdivision 1.Scope; definition.
>
> (a) A vacancy in the office of representative in Congress must be filled
> as specified in this section.
>
> (b) "Vacancy," as used in this section, means a vacancy in the office of
> representative in Congress.
>
> Subd. 2.Vacancy 27 weeks or more before state primary.
>
> (a) If a vacancy occurs 27 weeks or more before the state primary, the
> governor must issue a writ within three days of the vacancy for a special
> election for that office to be held between 20 and 24 weeks of the vacancy,
> but not fewer than 47 days before a state primary. A special primary must
> be held 11 weeks before the special election or on the second Tuesday in
> August if the general election is held on the first Tuesday after the first
> Monday in November if any major party has more than one candidate after the
> time for withdrawal has expired.
>
> (b) The filing period for a special election under this subdivision must
> end on or before the 131st day before the special election. Minor party and
> independent candidates must submit their petitions by the last day for
> filing and signatures on the petitions must be dated from the date of the
> vacancy through the last day for filing. There must be a one-day period for
> withdrawal of candidates after the last day for filing.
>
> Subd. 3.Vacancy more than 22 weeks but fewer than 27 weeks before state
> primary.
>
> (a) If a vacancy occurs more than 22 weeks but fewer than 27 weeks before
> the state primary, the governor must issue a writ within three days of the
> vacancy for a special election for that office to be held on the day of the
> state primary with a special primary held 11 weeks before the state
> primary, if any major party has more than one candidate after the time for
> withdrawal has expired. The regularly scheduled election to fill the next
> full term shall proceed pursuant to law.
>
> (b) The filing period for a special election under this subdivision must
> end on or before the 147th day before the state primary. Minor party and
> independent candidates must submit their petitions by the last day for
> filing and signatures on the petitions must be dated from the date of the
> vacancy through the last day for filing. There must be a one-day period for
> withdrawal of candidates after the last day for filing. Candidates for a
> special election under this subdivision are not subject to the prohibition
> in section 204B.06<
> https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes?year=2012&id=204B.06#stat.204B.06>
> against having more than one affidavit of candidacy on file for the same
> election.
>
> (c) The winner of a special election on the day of the state primary under
> this subdivision shall serve the remainder of the vacant term and is
> eligible to be seated in Congress upon issuance of the certificate of
> election. The winner of the regularly scheduled term for that office at the
> general election shall take office on the day new members of Congress take
> office.
>
> Subd. 4.Vacancy 22 or fewer weeks before state primary but before general
> election day.
>
> (a) If a vacancy occurs from 22 weeks before the state primary to the day
> before the general election, no special election will be held. The winner
> of the general election for the next full term for that office will serve
> the remainder of the unexpired term and is eligible to be seated in
> Congress immediately upon issuance of a certificate of election.
>
> (b) If the incumbent filed an affidavit of candidacy for reelection as the
> candidate of a major political party and was nominated for the general
> election ballot by that party and a vacancy occurs from the day of the
> state primary until the date of the general election, there is a vacancy in
> nomination to be resolved pursuant to section 204B.13<
> https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes?year=2012&id=204B.13#stat.204B.13>.
>
> Subd. 5.Vacancy on or after election day and before the day new members of
> Congress take office.
>
> (a) If a vacancy occurs between the day of the general election and the
> day new members of Congress take office and the incumbent was not the
> winner of the general election, the winner of the general election for the
> next full term for that office is eligible to be seated in Congress
> immediately upon issuance of a certificate of election or the vacancy,
> whichever occurs last.
>
> (b) If a vacancy occurs on or after election day but before the day new
> members of Congress take office and the incumbent was the winner of the
> general election, the vacancy must be filled pursuant to subdivision 2.
>
>
> --
> David Schultz, Professor
> Editor, Journal of Public Affairs Education (JPAE)
> Hamline University
> School of Business
> 570 Asbury Street
> Suite 308
> St. Paul, Minnesota 55104
> 651.523.2858<tel:651.523.2858> (voice)
> 651.523.3098<tel:651.523.3098> (fax)
> http://davidschultz.efoliomn.com/
> http://works.bepress.com/david_schultz/
> http://schultzstake.blogspot.com/
> Twitter:  @ProfDSchultz
> FacultyRow SuperProfessor, 2012, 2013
>
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-- 
David Schultz, Professor
Editor, Journal of Public Affairs Education (JPAE)
Hamline University
School of Business
570 Asbury Street
Suite 308
St. Paul, Minnesota 55104
651.523.2858 (voice)
651.523.3098 (fax)
http://davidschultz.efoliomn.com/
http://works.bepress.com/david_schultz/
http://schultzstake.blogspot.com/
Twitter:  @ProfDSchultz
FacultyRow SuperProfessor, 2012, 2013
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