[EL] Resignations and Candidate Selection

Thu May 30 06:25:50 PDT 2013

(subject changed to reflect that we are talking about an issue and not one Congressperson)

Professor Gaddie (or others):

Everything you discuss to date has had to do with partisan seat control.  Given that the vast majority of seats in Congress, and in virtually every other legislative body in the nation, are gerrymandered beyond competitiveness even with flawed candidates (um, Congressman Sanford anyone), isn't the more interesting question the selection of the nominee of the dominant party?  Did you look at this in your LSQ piece?

There are a few different questions that I'm interested in, and hoping someone has done more interesting work than the drivel spewed on TV:

(i) for states with special election primaries - do those electorates differ materially and demonstrably in either composition or performance from regular primaries and by when they occur?  Turnout is clearly lower and thus tracks super-voters (and the demographic differences between regular and supervoters).  Is there anything else there after you control for that?

(ii) for states where the nominees are coroneted by political parties/machines/bosses/whatever, how do those processes interface with the decision whether to retire or complete a term?

(iii) for states with special primaries, is the cost of TV cheaper than in regular primaries and, if so, to what effect?

There are other resignation questions that come to mind, and I think are what Professor Schultz was asking about:

(iv) for resignations of choice (not Weiner, death, etc), is there a difference?  In terms of whether they resign?  How long do they take to resign?  Etc.?

(v) at a larger level, are there correlations on why people choose to resign, or not?  How do we explain Weiner resigning while Vitter remained in the Senate?  Professor Schultz has focused on the immediacy of other economic opportunities, but there have to be other issues.  There are also questions of whether the opportunity will still be there - Marty Meehan probably couldn't have kept the chair open as Chancellor of UMassLowell, but one suspects that Alabama might have kept its Government Relations seat open for Jo Bonner (putting aside that his sister is the president of the lead university - one trusts she would have had his back).  But the question that Professor Schultz raises about the declining economic value of political celebrity is a real one - e.g. Sarah Palin - and I'd be curious if that is a larger issue for all politicians or only one that comes into play for politicians with mass-market retail appeal like Palin and, potentially, Bachmann (and one would have said Barney Frank - except he finished his term).

All that said, because the facts are so different in each case, filtering is probably pretty hard, but I trust there's some enterprising doctoral candidate who has bitten at least one of these questions off....

Kevin Greenberg
(215) 279-9912

From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu [mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Schultz, David A.
Sent: Thursday, May 30, 2013 8:41 AM
To: Gaddie, Ronald K.
Cc: law-election at uci.edu
Subject: Re: [EL] What if Bachmann resigns?

My point in noting that Bachmann could resign and there would not be a gubernatorial nominated replacement is to highlight the fact that the GOP would not have to fear the seat going to a Democrat.   This gives Bachmann options were she to decide to cash in on some opportunity and want to leave office early.  I think her cash value potentially declines the longer she is in office as a lame duck.

On Thu, May 30, 2013 at 7:15 AM, Gaddie, Ronald K. <rkgaddie at ou.edu<mailto:rkgaddie at ou.edu>> wrote:
The earlier you resign, the easier it is to retain. There is a piece in Legislative Studies Quarterly that indicates as much, from 2011. When we model special elections based on udual inputs -- spending, party baseline, candidate experience -- they behave like ordinary open seats.

Ronald Keith Gaddie, Ph.D.
Professor of Political Science
General Editor, Social Science Quarterly
Co-editor, The American Review of Politics
The University of Oklahoma
455 West Lindsey Street, Room 222
Norman, OK  73019-2001
Phone 405-325-4989<tel:405-325-4989>
Fax 405-325-0718<tel:405-325-0718>
E-mail: rkgaddie at ou.edu<mailto:rkgaddie at ou.edu>
http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/G/Ronald.K.Gaddie-1
http://socialsciencequarterly.org

________________________________________
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu<mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu> [law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu<mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu>] on behalf of Mark Schmitt [schmitt.mark at gmail.com<mailto:schmitt.mark at gmail.com>]
Sent: Wednesday, May 29, 2013 10:41 PM
To: law-election at uci.edu<mailto:law-election at uci.edu>
Subject: Re: [EL] What if Bachmann resigns?

Fair point. But elected officials and political strategists think special elections and different turnout models matter. That's sometimes -- not always -- why members of Congress resign rather than wait it out. Recent evidence certainly suggests that that strategy can backfire, as it did in the Weiner seat and several others where the immediate political environment mattered more than turnout.

Mark Schmitt
Senior Fellow, The Roosevelt Institute<http://www.rooseveltinstitute.org/>
202/246-2350<tel:202%2F246-2350><tel:202%2F246-2350>
gchat or Skype: schmitt.mark
twitter: mschmitt9

On Wed, May 29, 2013 at 9:20 PM, Gaddie, Ronald K. <rkgaddie at ou.edu<mailto:rkgaddie at ou.edu><mailto:rkgaddie at ou.edu<mailto:rkgaddie at ou.edu>>> wrote:
Special elections behave like regular open seats. While turnout might be lower, they most always are driven by the same factors and influences.

Ronald Keith Gaddie, Ph.D.
Professor of Political Science
General Editor, Social Science Quarterly
Co-editor, The American Review of Politics
The University of Oklahoma
455 West Lindsey Street, Room 222
Norman, OK  73019-2001
Phone 405-325-4989<tel:405-325-4989><tel:405-325-4989<tel:405-325-4989>>
Fax 405-325-0718<tel:405-325-0718><tel:405-325-0718<tel:405-325-0718>>
E-mail: rkgaddie at ou.edu<mailto:rkgaddie at ou.edu><mailto:rkgaddie at ou.edu<mailto:rkgaddie at ou.edu>>
http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/G/Ronald.K.Gaddie-1
http://socialsciencequarterly.org
________________________________
From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu<mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu><mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu<mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu>> [law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu<mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu><mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu<mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu>>] on behalf of Mark Schmitt [schmitt.mark at gmail.com<mailto:schmitt.mark at gmail.com><mailto:schmitt.mark at gmail.com<mailto:schmitt.mark at gmail.com>>]

Sent: Wednesday, May 29, 2013 8:15 PM
To: law-election at uci.edu<mailto:law-election at uci.edu><mailto:law-election at uci.edu<mailto:law-election at uci.edu>>
Subject: Re: [EL] What if Bachmann resigns?

There have been 16 mid-term resignations from the House in the past two congresses. Some were for egregious scandals (like Weiner-gate), but most were either for the purpose of (1) getting the clock started on the lobbying waiting period or (2) betting that a low-turnout special election will be better for your party or your preferred successor than an open-seat general. It's really quite outrageous, given the cost of a special election.

Bachmann did have a weird line in her video statement (which is very amusing, especially the music, although you'll never get those 8-1/2 minutes back), where she said that "eight years is long enough to serve representing one specific congressional district." Is there some other district she might aim to run in? If so, or if she aims to run against Franken, I think she might not resign; otherwise, I'm sure she will.

Mark Schmitt
Senior Fellow, The Roosevelt Institute<http://www.rooseveltinstitute.org/>
202/246-2350<tel:202%2F246-2350><tel:202%2F246-2350>
gchat or Skype: schmitt.mark
twitter: mschmitt9

On Wed, May 29, 2013 at 8:34 PM, Schultz, David A. <dschultz at hamline.edu<mailto:dschultz at hamline.edu><mailto:dschultz at hamline.edu<mailto:dschultz at hamline.edu>>> wrote:
What if Michele Bachmann decides to step down instead of serving out her term?  What then?

The governor does not have the authority to fill the position and instead it must go to a special election.  This would deprive Democrat Mark Dayton from appointing a Democrat to fill the position.

I am betting a dollar that Bachmann resigns before her term ends.  The longer she is in office the less and less her (political) capital or marketability is.

See below.

204D.29 REPRESENTATIVE IN CONGRESS VACANCY.
Subdivision 1.Scope; definition.

(a) A vacancy in the office of representative in Congress must be filled as specified in this section.

(b) "Vacancy," as used in this section, means a vacancy in the office of representative in Congress.

Subd. 2.Vacancy 27 weeks or more before state primary.

(a) If a vacancy occurs 27 weeks or more before the state primary, the governor must issue a writ within three days of the vacancy for a special election for that office to be held between 20 and 24 weeks of the vacancy, but not fewer than 47 days before a state primary. A special primary must be held 11 weeks before the special election or on the second Tuesday in August if the general election is held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November if any major party has more than one candidate after the time for withdrawal has expired.

(b) The filing period for a special election under this subdivision must end on or before the 131st day before the special election. Minor party and independent candidates must submit their petitions by the last day for filing and signatures on the petitions must be dated from the date of the vacancy through the last day for filing. There must be a one-day period for withdrawal of candidates after the last day for filing.

Subd. 3.Vacancy more than 22 weeks but fewer than 27 weeks before state primary.

(a) If a vacancy occurs more than 22 weeks but fewer than 27 weeks before the state primary, the governor must issue a writ within three days of the vacancy for a special election for that office to be held on the day of the state primary with a special primary held 11 weeks before the state primary, if any major party has more than one candidate after the time for withdrawal has expired. The regularly scheduled election to fill the next full term shall proceed pursuant to law.

(b) The filing period for a special election under this subdivision must end on or before the 147th day before the state primary. Minor party and independent candidates must submit their petitions by the last day for filing and signatures on the petitions must be dated from the date of the vacancy through the last day for filing. There must be a one-day period for withdrawal of candidates after the last day for filing. Candidates for a special election under this subdivision are not subject to the prohibition in section 204B.06<https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes?year=2012&id=204B.06#stat.204B.06> against having more than one affidavit of candidacy on file for the same election.

(c) The winner of a special election on the day of the state primary under this subdivision shall serve the remainder of the vacant term and is eligible to be seated in Congress upon issuance of the certificate of election. The winner of the regularly scheduled term for that office at the general election shall take office on the day new members of Congress take office.

Subd. 4.Vacancy 22 or fewer weeks before state primary but before general election day.

(a) If a vacancy occurs from 22 weeks before the state primary to the day before the general election, no special election will be held. The winner of the general election for the next full term for that office will serve the remainder of the unexpired term and is eligible to be seated in Congress immediately upon issuance of a certificate of election.

(b) If the incumbent filed an affidavit of candidacy for reelection as the candidate of a major political party and was nominated for the general election ballot by that party and a vacancy occurs from the day of the state primary until the date of the general election, there is a vacancy in nomination to be resolved pursuant to section 204B.13<https://www.revisor.mn.gov/statutes?year=2012&id=204B.13#stat.204B.13>.

Subd. 5.Vacancy on or after election day and before the day new members of Congress take office.

(a) If a vacancy occurs between the day of the general election and the day new members of Congress take office and the incumbent was not the winner of the general election, the winner of the general election for the next full term for that office is eligible to be seated in Congress immediately upon issuance of a certificate of election or the vacancy, whichever occurs last.

(b) If a vacancy occurs on or after election day but before the day new members of Congress take office and the incumbent was the winner of the general election, the vacancy must be filled pursuant to subdivision 2.

--
David Schultz, Professor
Editor, Journal of Public Affairs Education (JPAE)
Hamline University
School of Business
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Suite 308
St. Paul, Minnesota 55104
651.523.2858<tel:651.523.2858><tel:651.523.2858<tel:651.523.2858>> (voice)
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David Schultz, Professor
Editor, Journal of Public Affairs Education (JPAE)
Hamline University
School of Business
570 Asbury Street
Suite 308
St. Paul, Minnesota 55104
651.523.2858 (voice)
651.523.3098 (fax)
http://davidschultz.efoliomn.com/
http://works.bepress.com/david_schultz/
http://schultzstake.blogspot.com/
Twitter:  @ProfDSchultz
FacultyRow SuperProfessor, 2012, 2013
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