[EL] House votes vs seats in AZ & CA

Wed Nov 21 12:49:07 PST 2012

It's been a while since I've seen California and New Jersey referred to as
"good government states." ;-> 

Which maybe helps to illustrate that 'good government' might be something
other than having the 'right' ethics/campaign finance/lobbying/election
laws.

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

Best,

Sean Parnell

President

Impact Policy Management, LLC

6411 Caleb Court

Alexandria, VA  22315

571-289-1374 (c)

sean at impactpolicymanagement.com

From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
[mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Nicholas
Stephanopoulos
Sent: Wednesday, November 21, 2012 2:49 PM
To: Gaddie, Ronald K.
Cc: law-election at uci.edu
Subject: Re: [EL] House votes vs seats in AZ & CA

Here's a slightly more rigorous analysis: Four states with at least five
districts each (Arizona, California, New Jersey, and Washington) used
commissions this cycle, and they had an average partisan bias of 3.7% in the
Democratic direction. Twenty states with at least five districts each
allowed politicians to draw district lines, and they had an average partisan
bias of 10.0% in the Republican direction. I'd say that's a pretty good
record for the good-government states...

Nick

On Wed, Nov 21, 2012 at 1:12 PM, Gaddie, Ronald K. <rkgaddie at ou.edu> wrote:

So, if I read this right, in commission-based, 'good government'
redistricting states, there was an eleven-point swing bonus for the
Democrats, and in one instance a minority of the votes resulted in a
majority of the seats?

Ronald Keith Gaddie, Ph.D.

Professor of Political Science

Editor, Social Science Quarterly

The University of Oklahoma
455 West Lindsey Street, Room 222
Norman, OK  73019-2001
Phone 405-325-4989
Fax 405-325-0718

E-mail: rkgaddie at ou.edu
http://faculty-staff.ou.edu/G/Ronald.K.Gaddie-1
http://socialsciencequarterly.org

  _____  

From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
[law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] on behalf of Douglas Johnson
[djohnson at ndcresearch.com]
Sent: Wednesday, November 21, 2012 1:52 PM
To: 'Rick Hasen'; law-election at uci.edu
Subject: Re: [EL] House votes vs seats in AZ & CA

This article notes that in AZ, according to the latest votes counts,
Democratic House candidates received 44.6 % of votes and won 55.56% of
seats. 

In California - the other state where an independently-selected and
independently-acting commission controls redistricting - according to the
vote counts on Nov. 20 Democratic House candidates won 60.2% of votes and
71.7% of seats. 

All House races in California have been called by AP, though 1.2 million
ballots remain to be counted.

Both states saw a number of close elections. At one point, seven of the nine
not-yet-decided elections in the country (as counted by The Hill newspaper)
were in AZ and CA.

-        Doug

Douglas Johnson, Fellow

Rose Institute of State and Local Government

at Claremont McKenna College 

douglas.johnson at cmc.edu

310-200-2058 

From: law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu
[mailto:law-election-bounces at department-lists.uci.edu] On Behalf Of Rick
Hasen
Sent: Wednesday, November 21, 2012 9:13 AM
To: law-election at UCI.edu
Subject: [EL] ELB News and Commentary 11/21/12

 <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=44633> "Guest Column: Arizona's nonpartisan
redistricting creates fairer election outcomes" 

Posted on November 21, 2012 8:49 am <http://electionlawblog.org/?p=44633>
by Rick Hasen <http://electionlawblog.org/?author=3>  

Elliott Weiss has written this oped
<http://azstarnet.com/news/opinion/guest-column-arizona-s-nonpartisan-redist
ricting-creates-fairer-election-outcomes/article_60ff9cc0-d4cf-55e1-99f0-b9b
aa151ebed.html>  for the Arizona Daily Star.

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-- 
Nicholas O. Stephanopoulos
Assistant Professor of Law
University of Chicago Law School
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